The Detroit Lions’ offseason is in full go right now and we’re rapidly approaching free agency at the beginning of March. Anytime between now and the 2025 NFL Draft, the Lions could start extending the contracts of some players.
The big one that everyone is rightly focusing on is Aidan Hutchinson. It appears the Lions are also heavily focused on that deal too. On Tuesday Brad Holmes spoke to the media at the 2025 NFL Combine and said the Lions are in the planning stages of the extension.
We worked with cap expert Joshua Quiepo on working up a projection for what that extension could look like and how it could affect the Lions’ free agency plans this offseason. Here’s what we came up with.
Aidan Hutchinson’s extension projection
- APY Projection following 2023 season: $35 million
- APY Projection Current: $27.5 million
- Closest Comp (3 year sample): Brian Burns 2024, Carlos Dunlap 2021, Myles Garrett 2020
- Average of those deals in today’s $: $24.75 million
- Projected Years: 4
- Projected Total Value: $110 million – $82.5 million guaranteed – $60.5 fully gtd
That is a lot of lettuce right there. This move would make Hutchinson one of the top five highest-paid edge rushers in the NFL.
You could make an argument that he could or should get more, but at the end of the day, the injury is going to matter in the grand scheme of how this contract comes out. The Lions have to both make Hutchinson happy and protect themselves against the off chance that this injury affects his game.
This is why not long ago we suggested that Hutchinson’s best outcome would be to forgo signing this extension and opt for the fifth-year option instead. That way if he had a killer 2025 and won the Defensive Player of the Year award, he could find himself being the highest-paid non quarterback in the NFL.
From the Lions’ side of things, getting it done now puts them ahead of market-shifting deals like Micah Parsons or Myles Garrett who could get a big deal from the Browns or whatever team the Browns trade him to.
How does this move affect free agency?
There will be an effect, but not a super large one. This extension would add an additional $3 million to the Lions cap in 2025. So instead of an $11 million cap hit in 2025, it would be $14 million. So not a huge change.
It might also signal the Lions’ goal to look for more edge help in the draft as opposed to free agency. It would also nearly guarantee that a trade for Myles Garrett just isn’t happening.
We’ll see soon enough what the Lions and Hutchinson have planned.