The Detroit Lions are definitely on Myles Garrett watch right now. Of all the teams that keep getting mentioned as possible trade partners for the Browns on this thing, the Lions are ones that get brought up every time.
If the Lions do make this move, when is it going to happen? The answer is that it’s not likely to happen until summer time for multiple reasons.
The first is that the Browns are committed to the most predictable three-act play in the business and they will be for a while. If you’re not familiar with the play, here’s how it goes:
- Act I: Player requests trade
- Act II: Team swears up and down that they’re not going to trade said player.
- Act III: Team caves and trades player
We’re in Act II, and we’ll likely remain there for a while so the Browns can drive up the value of the trade. There’s really no way this will not happen.
The thing is that in connection with the three-act play, the Browns just can’t do it right now because it will cost them significantly more in dead cap if they were to make the trade ahead of the Post June 1st designation. Take a look:
- Dead money in 2025 if traded ahead of June 1st: $36,216,220
- Dead money in 2025 if traded after June 1st: $14,758,895
There you go. That’s well over $20 million in savings for the Browns. They would be incredibly dumb to leave that money on the table. So now we’re looking at the Lions possibly making this trade after free agency and after the draft.
If that’s the case, watching everything the Lions do during that time could give you some signs. Here are some things that could signal they’re gearing up to make that move.
- Lions take full advantage of cap casualties to free up space.
- Lions use fifth-year options instead of extensions.
- Lions backload any extensions they do make to free up space in 2025.
- Lions stay away from any big signings this offseason
- Lions don’t trade any future picks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
- Lions trade down to get extra future picks.
We’re not saying that if these things happen, the Lions are guaranteed to make a move, but cutting costs and grabbing future assets is a strong way to prepare your team for acquiring an expensive player.
At the end of the day, it’s all going to come down to whether or not the Lions feel they can afford to make the move and if the Browns feel that what the Lions are offering is enough. The thing that stands in the way is that while Garrett says he wants to play for a contender, it’s not up to him.
The Browns could send him to a team with higher draft picks and more to offer, and it would make little difference to them.
The best thing the Lions can do is both prepare for the possibility it can happen and the possibility that it won’t. So don’t expect the Lions to do nothing during free agency or the draft. Just be aware if they don’t do anything huge and they make moves to free up money. See you in June.