Going for it on 4th down is always an exciting and nerve-wracking moment, so we are all in for a wonderfully-nervous treat on Saturday when the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions face off. These two teams are of the aggressive-variety when it comes to going for it on fourth down and the aggressiveness has been instrumental in many key wins – most recently against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round where the Commanders went for it four times on 4th down.
“It’s definitely different, and it has to do a lot with your team, too, in terms of how you play,” Quinn told reporters Tuesday when asked about each team’s effectiveness on 4th down. “We had known that from an efficiency standpoint, you know, they’re excellent at it [and] we’re excellent at it. . . It has changed a lot . . . That’s one of the cool parts about football, man, where things evolve and change and so you want to be bold without being reckless.”
The Commanders made league history in 2024, converting a record 87.0% of 4th down attempts. It vastly outpaced the second-place Bills’ 72.7% rate and the Lions’ seventh-place 66.7% rate. Washington went for it 23 times on fourth down during the regular season, while Detroit had 33 attempts. And as mentioned earlier, Jayden Daniels and Co. went for it four times against the Bucs, so it’s clear they’ll do what’s necessary to win in the playoffs.
That’s going to be needed this week, too. We all know the Lions are going to go for it when it makes sense and hell, they may even do it when it doesn’t make as much sense as it should. The Commanders are going to have to keep pace in order to keep the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands, but like Quinn said, they can’t be baited into doing something reckless – they have to be smart about it.
The Lions are all about going for it and it rarely maters where they are on the field. This is a four down offense and they plan to continue to play that way.
The benefits are that it tends to work because they have good play designs for fourth down. The other benefit is that teams are so used to them doing it, that they jump on fourth down a lot and give the Lions a free first down.
The bad side is that when it fails in their own territory, it always leads to scores from their opponents. – Mike Payton, A to Z Detroit
Fortunately, this offense is built to handle manageable situations on third and fourth down. Daniels’ legs, accuracy, and arm strength make any play call work and Kliff Kingsbury’s playbook is loaded with creative ways to quickly get guys in space so they can eat up short yardage. Per Next Gen Stats, the Commanders offense was above-average in EPA/attempt, passing touchdowns, and pass yards per play on throws under 10 air yards during the regular season, which are deemed as short throws.
And as mentioned last week, the Commanders’ quick passing game is both effective and frequent. During the regular season, 44.2% of Commanders passes were under 2.5 seconds and 43.8% of their passing yardage came from such. The offense tied for the 12th-best EPA/attempt at +0.13 EPA, as well. Against the Bucs, the Commanders got the ball out under 2.5 seconds on 38.9% percent of throws that accounted for 47.3% of Daniels’ passing yardage and an EPA/att of +0.22.
Obviously, you don’t want to be in a position to make this kind of decision on 4th down – you want to convert on 3rd. However, if the Commanders can keep things manageable on 4th down, they’ll have a great shot at converting.
Daniels and Co. certainly have ground to stand on in this fight and they’re going to have to hold their own if they want to pull off another upset in the playoffs. And if they can stand their ground, then anything is possible.