We touched on both passing markets earlier this week, and we turn next to some pass-catchers to fade and back heading into the 2024 NFL season.
When you consider a market like this, do know that the numbers and data suggest pocketing more unders than overs, despite our innate desire to root on things happening. In a league like the NFL, injuries are just so prominent, which skew these markets and have the unders as the tried and true more consistent option.
That doesn’t mean we’ll only be betting unders, but we will aim to favor them as much as we can.
Nico Collins under 1050.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings)
The main theme of our two under plays is going to be simply the amount of options an offense has and how that may negatively impact the volume coming guy’s ways.
That is particularly prominent in Houston, as the Texans added Stefon Diggs this offseason. Collins had a fantastic third season with C.J. Stroud throwing him the football, going for 1,297 yards and 80 catches in 15 games.
We’re believers of Collins’s game, but with Diggs in town, and Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown also needing targets, there’s only so much to go around.
This group really just makes us want to back Stroud futures, but for this market, Collins is the target we’ll fade in Houston.
Sam LaPorta over 875.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings)
We need one over, and Detroit Lions’ tight end Sam LaPorta is a terrific option to back. LaPorta had a tremendous rookie season, catching 86 balls and 10 touchdowns, finishing with 889 yards.
LaPorta displayed explosiveness with the ball in his hands and showed an ability to get open down the field. Newly-extended QB Jared Goff will be wise to continue targeting his young star tight end, and LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the two clear top options in this offense.
We have a feeling LaPorta is only just getting started, and we were impressed with his toughness and durability to play through a late-season injury. With a full-season, we don’t hate LaPorta to push to lead all tight ends in receiving yardage this season. In such a world, he should easily clear this 875.5 yardage mark.
Davante Adams under 1000.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings)
We’re heading into this year quite sour on the Raiders offense, and as an extension of that, a Davante Adams regression seems like it’s going to rear its head sooner before later.
The starting QB for Las Vegas this season is either going to be Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew, which just really does not inspire much confidence.
Adams has exceeded this mark in five of his last six seasons and both with the Raiders, and he’s stayed quite healthy for most of his career. It just seems a dip is coming for the 31-year old. There are more mouths to feed now in Vegas than before, with Brock Bowers joining the team and commanding targets at tight end. Plus, Jakobi Meyers and Michael Gallup round out a solid WR group.
With a more even dispersement coming from a below-average QB, we’re fading Adams this season.