The 7-round ‘What I Would Do’ Lions mock draft

I used various simulators (PFF, PFN, Mock Draft Database) run a total of 24 times (each eight times) to determine viable player availability for my picks here in the first three rounds. If the player was available on 10 or more simulations, I considered them available. Those that were not available at least 10 times were ruled out.

For the first round, that eliminated 22 players. Many of these are expected, and the Lions wouldn’t have interest in drafting several of them anyway:

QBs (4): Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy

WRs (4): Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas

OL (5): Joe Alt, Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu, Olu Fashanu, Graham Barton

TE (1): Brock Bowers

DT (2): Byron Murphy, Johnny Newton

EDGE (3): Laiatu Latu, Dallas Thomas, Jared Verse

CB (3): Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean

The key players I hoped would realistically be available (generally projected in the 20s) but were eliminated here from consideration at 29, in the order I would select them for Detroit:

Johnny Newton, Brian Thomas, Graham Barton, Cooper DeJean

I’m choosing between a few different directions here. I’m looking at Oregon IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Arizona OL Jordan Morgan, Michigan CB Mike Sainristil, Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry and South Carolina WR Xavier Legette. That’s my pool of the top-rated available players at positions of need. A pass rusher is a need, too, but none of the available EDGEs (Marshawn Kneeland, Darius Robinson, Chop Robinson) rank highly enough for me here.

I rule out McKinstry fairly quickly due to his injury uncertainty, nicely documented in this video from Dr. Jimmy Liao. I tend to be more injury-risk-averse than Brad Holmes. I also have concerns about his speed and his playing style that, at times, reminds me a little too much of Cam Sutton.

As much as I love Powers-Johnson, he’s the next one I rule out. Interior offensive line isn’t typically a developmental position, and this class is very deep in guys I really like at both guard and center, too.

Legette gets trimmed next for much the same reason. I love the player and the fit, but I’m confident I can get useful wideouts of a similar caliber later in the draft. I don’t feel the same at cornerback or offensive tackle. Which leaves Morgan and Sainristil.

I’m happy with either choice. Morgan is a high-end tackle prospect who fits the Lions gap scheme and instantly provides a massive upgrade as the top reserve tackle. Yet Morgan might be even better long-term at guard, where his shorter-than-ideal arms and more aggressive blocking style look great, too. With Taylor Decker entering the final year of his contract and knowing he recently had a bone removed from his foot so he could keep playing, you’d better believe I’m interested in upgrading the OT depth.

Sainristil quickly developed into the best slot corner in this draft class, even though he’s only played defense for two seasons. The former wideout expertly applies his receiving background to read and quickly react to the offense. He hits and tackles well enough to man the slot but also play outside in packages. The Lions have Brian Branch in the slot already, but the versatility Branch offers means the Lions could get creative and better overall in coverage at the same time.

It’s easier to find cornerbacks than offensive linemen. Well, not necessarily for this Detroit regime, but in general. However, I see Sainristil as a rising star whose best football is ahead of him, and he plays a role that helps the Lions more in 2024 than Morgan would, barring injuries.

The pick: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan

The gamble in waiting at OL pays off. Beebe should never be available here for the Lions, and it strains credibility that he’s on the board in 22 of the 24 simulations. I’d be perfectly happy landing Beebe in the first round for the Lions; he’s an exceptional scheme fit at either guard spot with expert technique, a veteran’s savvy in pass protection, and just enough athletic ability and experience to play tackle in an emergency. This was not a difficult choice.

Time to really zig where many expect the zag. The Lions need to add another wideout, and in general, folks expect someone with someone with size and length. Washington is 192 pounds but stands just 5-foot-8 and primarily plays in the slot, not outside.

I’m a believer that finding a wideout who reliably gets open over the middle and on quick-hitting routes is more important than size. Washington emphatically checks that box. Finding a playmaker with run-after-catch ability is the type of fit I think Ben Johnson and Jared Goff want in their offense, and Washington checked that box exceedingly well at both Northwestern and Virginia.

But don’t just take my word for it…

Did I forget to mention Washington might also be the best kickoff return prospect in this draft?

I’m a lot less worried about the Lions offensive staff finding ways to use Washington in conjunction with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta–two outstanding slot targets–than opposing defensive coordinators will be.

Others in consideration here include Georgia S Javon Bullard, Washington EDGE Bralen Trice, Louisville CB Jarvis Brownlee, Michigan DL Kris Jenkins, Washington WR Jalen McMillan and Texas Tech S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson.

The Jim Thorpe Award winner for 2023 as the nation’s top defensive back (disclaimer: I voted for him) has some questions about his lateral agility and deep-field coverage, but the size, straight-line speed and a résumé of hard-hitting, impact plays in both run and pass defense are more than worthy of selection in this range. He’s one of my favorite players in the entire draft and is definitely cut from the Holmes/Campbell cloth.

I recently spotlighted Coker in the “WR For Every Round” feature, and I’m a believer in his ability to contribute right away as a red zone and short-yardage possession receiver. There is a lot of explosive athleticism for WR coach Antwan Randle-El to work with in Coker, who dominated at both the Hula Bowl and the Shrine Bowl.

A widebodied nose tackle who likes being a nose tackle, Jefferson is NFL-ready to be in the Lions interior DL rotation right away. While not known for his pass rushing ability, he showed he could bull and twist his way into the backfield at both West Virginia and LSU, as well as the Senior Bowl.

A long (6-foot-1) corner with a nice jam and an affinity for run defense, Anusiem won’t fit every situation. He struggles with quickness and also gets lost in zone too frequently. But in press coverage on the outside and matching up against bigger/stronger wideouts, the Cal transfer can play. He was also Colorado State’s highest-graded special teams player in 2023, and that role in Detroit is open with Chase Lucas’ departure. There aren’t many guys in this range who could ever project to be active on gameday in 2024; Anusiem is one of them.