This week’s first-round projections come as Spring Break hits for millions of families with less than a month until the 2024 NFL draft in Detroit. It’s almost the end of pro day season, and private visits are passing quickly as well.
There are a few new trades in this edition, as well as some holdover picks that just make too much sense. As always, these projections reflect the decisions I believe the teams might make in the given situations and do not necessarily represent the choices I would make in the same situation.
2024 NFL mock draft: March Madness reigns in the latest projections
Without further ado, the Spring Break edition of the first-round mock draft:
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
No change. No need to change.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The Commanders are taking a quarterback, that much is certain. I still think it’s Daniels until proven otherwise.
New England Patriots: J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan
Last week’s edition had the Patriots trading out of this spot. This week’s projection opts to have the new regime stand pat and select McCarthy to be the new face of the franchise.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Toyed with subbing in the very talented Malik Nabers here, but I just can’t fathom an NFL team not taking the universally well-loved Harrison Jr. as the top receiver.
(Trade) MInnesota VIkings: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Trade details: Vikings trade No. 11, No. 23 and a 2025 second-round pick to the Chargers for No. 5 and No. 105.
Minnesota finds a trading partner with the Chargers, putting the Vikings ahead of the Giants in the race for the No. 4 quarterback. Maye has loads of athletic potential but enough questions that he slides out of the top three quarterbacks.
New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Nabers gets the nod as the second wideout and steps right into the lead WR role for the Giants.
Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Titans gave up the most sacks in the NFL last year, and the high-end Alt is a nice long-term solution to that problem.
Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Kept the Bears with the same 1-9 combination of Caleb Williams and Brock Bowers. Don’t fix what isn’t broken for a draft haul like that for Chicago.
(Trade): Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Trade details: Colts trade No. 15, No. 82 and No. 151 to the Jets for No. 10 and a 2025 third-round pick.
The Colts jump up to land Mitchell, who is straight out of central casting for a lockdown outside cornerback.
(Trade): Los Angeles Chargers: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
After trading back, the Chargers score the versatile Fautanu. He’s starter-worthy at either guard or tackle and has the upside to be a very good one quickly.
Denver Broncos: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
I was going to slot Bo Nix here to sate the quarterback thirst, but instead, I rolled with the gifted Latu to beef up the declining pass rush. With his moves and his body, Latu is NFL-ready, making him the most impactful pass rusher for 2024 in the draft.
Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Fuaga is the best right tackle in the draft, and the Raiders have a dire need on the right side of the line. His nasty playing demeanor would honor some Raiders battlers of the past.
New Orleans Saints: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Latham is green technically, but his size and athleticism make for a very high ceiling. With pressing need at right tackle and potential need at left tackle coming up quickly, the Saints use the premium pick on the premium position.
(Trade): New York Jets: Rome Odunze
The Jets benefit from the puzzling Odunze fall and land a wideout who is simply too good to bypass. Odunze was Plan B for pretty much all of the last six picks, but Plan A was still there.
Seattle Seahawks: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
Newton jumps into the middle of the Seahawks line as a difference-making penetrator and agitator. He’s one of the toughest players to slot in the top 40, and this represents his high-end range.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Arnold could go higher than this, but the Jaguars would figure to happily land a playmaking corner with his pedigree and football IQ.
Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Bengals and offensive line are a cliched pairing, but it’s not like Cincinnati can’t use the help. Mims carries some risk with his lack of reps and injury history, but he’s a planet-theory type of tackle.
(Trade): Washington Commanders: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Trade details: Commanders trade No. 40, No. 67 and a 2025 second-round pick to the Rams for No. 19 and No. 217.
Washington needs to protect its QB investment and makes a move to land Fashanu, a high-end athlete who is still putting together his ability at tackle.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Pittsburgh radically changed the approach at quarterback and now must upgrade the offensive line. Barton proved at Duke’s pro day that he’s got the athletic ability to be a great center even though he played tackle for the Blue Devils
Miami Dolphins: Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
If the season started today, the Dolphins starting DT tandem would be Benito Jones and DaShawn Hand–two Lions castoffs. Murphy jumps to the top of the depth chart with his solid game and upside, and the dropoff to the next tier of IDL is pretty steep.
(Trade) Carolina Panthers: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Trade details: The Panthers trade No. 33, No. 65, and a 2025 3rd-round pick to the Eagles for No. 22, No. 120, and No. 172.
Carolina moves up to add Verse to the pass rush mix in hopes of replacing the impactful Brian Burns. Verse brings more of a power element to the young Panthers.
(Trade) Los Angeles Chargers: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Worthy is the fastest wideout in combine history, and that necessitates a first-round pick. He’s a field-stretching threat to open up the run game and also give Justin Herbert some playmaking around him.
Dallas Cowboys: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Very difficult to not just reflexively install Jackson Powers-Johnson here, but Coleman has the type of game and athletic profile that will be difficult to ignore for a team like the Cowboys.
Green Bay Packers: Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
DeJean profiles similarly to Brian Branch a year ago, a versatile DB with a high football IQ and really good tackling in the open field. The Packers lamented not getting Branch, so they try to remedy their miss here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Robinson offers insane athletic potential and disruption off the edge. That’s something a team like the Buccaneers, who lost Shaq Barrett, can use to help bury teams trying to come back against them. I suspect you’ll see this pairing a lot in the coming weeks
Arizona Cardinals: Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Thomas has the talent and the potential to merit going much higher than 27th, but the board fell oddly for wideouts here. It happens. The Cardinals would probably love for it to happen here, too.
Buffalo Bills: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Wiggins offers speed and playmaking ability to a Buffalo defensive backfield that took some hits in the offseason.
Detroit Lions: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Powers-Johnson has “Dan Campbell type of player” written all over him. That he can play center or guard at a high level is a nice trump card for the man known as JPJ. Plan B here is Darius Robinson. Plan C is Zach Frazier, last week’s selection here.
Baltimore Ravens: Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
The Ravens’ top pass rusher outside of DT Justin Madubuike is Odafe Oweh, who has 13 sacks in three seasons. They desperately need someone like Robinson, a productive and positionally versatile power-to-speed pass rusher
San Francisco 49ers: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
I’m still a big believer that Sainristil will be viewed by the NFL as a first-round talent even if most draft pundits see him being picked some 20-30 picks later. He’s a great fit for the 49ers defense, too.
Kansas City Chiefs: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Mitchell could go in the 20s–he has that high-end talent. He could go in the 50s–he has that many question marks. The Chiefs drafted a guy exactly like that in this very spot a year ago in Felix Anudike-Uzomah. I expect the same sort of risk/reward for the world champs.