Happy St. Patrick’s Day! March 17th falls less than six weeks until the 2024 NFL draft kicks off in Detroit. We’re a few days into free agency now, which alters some team needs from last week’s mock.
This week’s first-round projections are already jumbled by a late-week trade involving the Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans. The logical next step is hypothesized here, with the Vikings bundling and moving up to land their successor for Kirk Cousins.
Beyond that, I kept the trades to a minimum on this edition. As always, these reflect an idea of what could happen in the NFL draft, not necessarily what choices I would make. That’s the difference between rankings and projections.
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Mar 1, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Southern California quarterback Caleb Williams (QB14) talks to the media during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Not to be boring or repetitive, but this projection will not change between now and April 25th unless the Bears give us explicit reason to think otherwise.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Mar 1, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Louisiana State quarterback Jayden Daniels (QB01) talks to the media during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
I came away from the NFL Scouting Combine with the distinct impression the Commanders wanted Daniels as their new franchise quarterback. The Heisman Trophy winner thusly gets the nod at No. 2 this week.
(Trade) Minnesota Vikings: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Nov 25, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the first half at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Hypothetical trade details: Minnesota trades No. 11 overall, No. 23 overall (acquired last week in the trade with the Texans), a 2025 first-round pick and 2025 third-round pick to New England for No. 3 overall and a 2025 fourth-round pick.
The trade here is similar to what the 49ers traded to the Dolphins in 2021 to move up and select QB Trey Lance. The Vikings would clearly be hoping for a much better outcome than what San Francisco got from their inexperienced but athletically impressive quarterback in the trade.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
4. Arizona Cardinals — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
This is another projection that I won’t expect to change before the draft until the Cardinals give us good reason to change it. Harrison would be an instant jolt for Arizona’s offense.
Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Sep 9, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish tackle Joe Alt (76) during the first half at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Given how much Jim Harbaugh loved to establish the run at Michigan, it makes sense to build up the offensive line so the new Chargers coach can do it in Los Angeles. Alt and Rashawn Slater would make a potentially outstanding young bookend OT combination.
New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Nov 11, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) catches a pass for a touchdown while defended by Utah Utes cornerback JaTravis Broughton (4) during the second half at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
In this scenario, the Giants bypass a quarterback to instead help make the team around the QB, currently Daniel Jones, a lot better. Odunze’s catch radius and playmaking flair would make a great fit in New York.
Tennessee Titans: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – MARCH 01: Quinyon Mitchell #DB27 of Toledo participates in the 40-yard dash during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 01, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
The first defensive player off the board heads to Tennessee, where the combine standout has a chance to make a big impact right away.
(Trade) New England Patriots: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy warms up before the national championship game at NRG Stadium in Houston on Monday, Jan. 8, 2024.
Hypothetical trade details: New England trades No. 11 and No. 23 (both acquired in the previous trade) to Atlanta for No. 8 overall and a sixth-round pick swap.
The Patriots package the picks they got from Minnesota and send them to Atlanta to begin rebuilding around McCarthy.
Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (19) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second half of a NCAA college football game against Ole Miss in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023. Georgia won 52-17.
With their own pick, the Bears choose to build up around Caleb Williams with a high-end receiving tight end. Bowers was a special talent at Georgia.
New York Jets: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Oct 28, 2023; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga #75 walks off the field against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports
The Jets have added a pair of 33-year-old starting tackles in free agency. The physical Fuaga would be a prudent investment in the future and immediate insurance against Father Time.
(Trade) Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) celebrates after a sack in the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
After trading back (see No. 8 above), the Falcons select Turner–who I would have projected they take with their higher pick. Get used to seeing this team-player pairing over the next few weeks…
Denver Broncos: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Malik Nabers 8 as the LSU Tigers take on Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 25, 2023.
In every draft, there’s someone who unexpectedly falls out of the top 10. The depth at wideout makes the explosive Nabers the unwitting faller here. The Broncos, fresh off trading Jerry Jeudy, probably wouldn’t mind this one bit.
Las Vegas Raiders: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Raiders need offensive line help like a cheeseburger needs cheese. The versatile Fautanu can start right away and offers the potential to move around as the Raiders add more talent up front.
New Orleans Saints: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) celebrates a play in the fourth quarter of the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semi-finals at the Ceasars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, Jan. 1, 2024. The Huskies won the game 37-31.
Another surprise as the Saints pull the trigger on the fastest wideout in scouting combine history to try and shake up the staid offense. Worthy has length and some decent polish already for a prospect viewed more one-dimensionally.
Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Oct 7, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold (3) defends against a pass intended for Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Ainias Smith (0) during the fourth quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Unless the Colts can add a legit starting CB between now and the draft, they desperately need a corner upgrade. That’s Arnold, a high-end prospect with scheme versatility.
Seattle Seahawks: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Oct 21, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Cooper DeJean (3) looks on during the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle dumped half its secondary in free agency and hasn’t restocked the pantry. DeJean projects better at corner but could play a hybrid safety/CB role while the Seahawks figure it all out.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Dec 30, 2023; Pasadena, CA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry during Rose Bowl media day at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
McKinstry has some big-play flair to his game that should appeal to the Jaguars, who could pair him with Tyson Campbell to have a fun young CB tandem for a few years.
Cincinnati Bengals: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS – OCTOBER 01: J.C. Latham #65 of the Alabama Crimson Tide celebrates on the sidelines in the second half during a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on October 01, 2022 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Crimson Tide defeated the Razorbacks 49-26. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
The biggest question here isn’t if the Bengals will go offensive line; it’s which one they choose. In this scenario, it’s the behemoth Latham who can erase pass rushers.
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Oct 14, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive end Jared Verse (5) against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
The temptation here is to force a DT to replace Aaron Donald. But that’s a terrible burden to put on a player and I hope the Rams know that. Verse on the edge can help ease the pass-rushing pain.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Oct 14, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) celebrates after the Ducks scored a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the second half at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Pittsburgh’s new quarterbacks need protection, and Powers-Johnson is ready-made to help keep them comfy and also create more holes in the run game.
Miami Dolphins: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
EVANSTON, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 30: Olumuyiwa Fashanu #74 of the Penn State Nittany Lions high fives fans after defeating the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field on September 30, 2023 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Miami is one of the tougher teams to project. Fashanu is one of the tougher prospects to project. Put those hands together and we’ve got a match that works for each.
(Trade) Buffalo BIlls: Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Brian Thomas Jr 11 runs the ball as the LSU Tigers take on Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 25, 2023.
Hypothetical trade details: Buffalo trades No. 28 overall, No. 60 and a first-round pick in 2025 for No. 22 and No. 120 overall.
The Bills move up to land Thomas, a playmaking dynamo with a high talent floor who can help right away.
(Trade) Atlanta Falcons: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Sep 16, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina; Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) returns an interception for a touchdown during the first quarter against Florida Atlantic at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY NETWORK
Atlanta uses its extra pick acquired in a trade to lock up a potential lockdown corner in Wiggins, who has some serious wheels on the outside.
Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Nov 27, 2021; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils offensive tackle Graham Barton (62) celebrates a point during the first half of the game against the Miami Hurricanes at Wallace Wade Stadium. at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys have always taken great care to have a very good offensive line. Investing in Barton, who is a first-round talent at both tackle and center, makes a lot of sense for Dallas.
Green Bay Packers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Jan 9, 2023; Inglewood, CA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mims is a precocious prospect with incredible upside. Packers fans might not like this pick in 2024, but it’s an investment in the line for years to come.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) celebrates after sacking Massachusetts quarterback Taisun Phommachanh in the first half of a NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in State College, Pa. The Nittany Lions won, 63-0.
Robinson offers insane athletic potential and disruption off the edge. That’s something a team like the Buccaneers, who lost Shaq Barrett, can use to help bury teams trying to come back against them.
Arizona Cardinals: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Oct 21, 2023; Stanford, California, USA; UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu (15) after defeating the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
The Cardinals are in the process of overhauling their entire defensive front, and adding a polished, NFL-ready rusher like Latu can provide some stability and long-term promise.
(Trade) Philadelphia Eagles: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
Oct 21, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton (4) tackles Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
After trading back, the Eagles continue to attack in their quest to have the best, deepest defensive front in football. Newton could go much higher than this and nobody would blink.
Detroit Lions: Zach Frazier, OL, West Virginia
Sep 17, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers offensive lineman Zach Frazier (54) during the first quarter against the Towson Tigers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Primarily a center-and a really good one-Frazier can shift to guard and fill the hole left by Jonah Jackson’s departure. With center Frank Ragnow’s long-term availability a question, it’s a prudent investment in a high-floor player.
Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
Nov 25, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Morgan might be a guard, or he might be a tackle; that is uncertain. What is known is that Morgan is a really good football player, and the Ravens collect those as well as anyone and figure out how best to use them in due time.
San Francisco 49ers: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Dec 30, 2023; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) makes a catch and runs for touchdown against the Florida State Seminoles during the first half in the 2023 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
McConkey is a fantastic route runner who can make the first tackler miss. Sounds exactly like a 49ers wideout.
Kansas City Chiefs: Cooper Beebe, OL, Kansas State
Mar 3, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas State offensive lineman Cooper Beebe (OL07) during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Last year the Chiefs surprised everyone with a Kansas State player in the first round. Beebe isn’t often projected this highly, but his NFL-ready game and ability to play all over the line make him a great fit for the world champs.