The NFL calendar is in the strange week between the Scouting Combine and the beginning of free agency. That makes it a good time to reset the current expectations for the first round of the 2024 NFL draft.
This one features some trades that are purely hypothetical. It’s always tough to predict trades, but understand that deals will happen in the actual draft, which takes place in late April in Detroit.
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
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Not a lot of drama with what the Bears will do with the top pick. Williams will be the pick, barring something freakishly unexpected. The suspense is around what happens with current QB Justin Fields…
2. Washington Commanders: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
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Michigan’s McCarthy is the No. 2 quarterback flavor for this week. Coming out of the combine, all indications are the buzz on McCarthy’s stock is based in NFL reality. By next week, he could be back to QB4…
3. (Trade): New York Giants (from Patriots): Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
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Trade details: Giants trade No. 6 overall, No. 70 overall, and a 2025 first-round pick and fourth-round pick to the Patriots for No. 3 overall and No. 104 overall in 2024
The Giants jump up to ensure they land the QB of their choosing in Maye. Presuming they prefer the enigmatic Maye to Jayden Daniels, of course…
4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Harrison is a phenomenal high-end prospect for a Cardinals team that needs a true top dawg on offense.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
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Lots of speculation about which direction new head coach Jim Harbaugh will turn his focus. Building up the line and the run blocking is definitely in Harbaugh’s character, and Alt is a high-end prospect ready to start as a rookie.
6. (Trade)New England Patriots (from Giants): Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
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In this scenario, the Patriots are able to trade back and still land a premium QB prospect. Daniels wore the face of the franchise very well at LSU and would get the chance to do the same in New England.
7. Tennessee Titans: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
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There is a pretty broad range of speculation on the pecking order of the offensive tackles. Latham’s sheer size and high-end upside could very well make him OT2. The Titans desperately need a hit at tackle.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Malik Nabers 8 dives for a ball as the LSU Tigers take on Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 25, 2023.
With the top four quarterbacks off the board, Falcons GM Terry Fontenot shifts the focus to making life a lot easier for whomever will be playing quarterback in Atlanta. Nabers garnered a lot of buzz coming out of the combine with his playmaking panache.
9. Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers is a unique weapon, a playmaking wide receiver in the body of a smallish tight end. His ability to dictate coverage matchups can be a great asset for a young quarterback.
10. New York Jets: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
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Fuaga has the grit and the pass protection skills to immediately help the Jets, even though he’s best known for his outstanding run blocking.
11. (Trade) Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings): Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
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Trade details: Eagles trade No. 22, No. 53, No. 170 and a 2025 first-round pick to the Vikings for No. 11 and No. 156 in 2024.
The Eagles make a bold trade up to land perhaps the biggest riser in the draft process. Mitchell is a ready-made starter with high-end physical tools at a position where every team has needs.
12. Denver Broncos: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
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After dumping Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy, it’s time for Denver to rebirth itself. Selecting the athletically prodigious Turner as the new centerpiece could very well be a good place to start.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
A quick look at the Raiders OL depth chart with the free agents taken out made me simultaneously laugh and cry. Fashanu needs some work but has top-end tools to build upon at either tackle spot.
14. (Trade): Minnesota Vikings (from Saints): Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
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Trade details: Vikings trade No. 22 and No. 53 (both acquired in previous trade), No. 176 and second-round and fourth-round picks in 2025 to the Saints for No. 14 and No. 174 in 2024 and a third-pick in 2025
The Vikings package the bounty of their earlier trade back and move up to land Arnold, who has loads of talent and coverage ability. The perceived gap between Arnold and the next crop of corners forces the Vikings hands a bit.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
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In every draft, there’s always one player that inexplicably falls later than expected. In these projections, it’s Odunze, a wideout with top-5 overall potential. I suspect the Colts won’t mind…
16. Seattle Seahawks: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
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Powers-Johnson brings a supremely athletic profile and impressive technical polish to the inside of the Seahawks offensive line. He’s good enough to help convince a defensive-oriented new head coach to use the first pick on offense.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
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Wiggins blazed to an outstanding 40-yard dash time at the combine, and his speed translates to the field. The Jaguars go for the high-end potential here over some potentially safer choices.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
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Human beings built like Mims aren’t supposed to move as fluidly or quickly as the Georgia giant does. He’s also a pretty good blocker with a growing grasp of his technique, which makes him a perfect fit for the Bengals.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
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The Rams use their first first-round pick since Jared Goff on Verse, an impressive, NFL-ready pass rusher with some nice upside. He’ll help restock an improving Rams front.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
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Barton is an intriguing offensive line prospect with enough versatility to mix and match anywhere across the rebuilding Steelers line. His best projection is at center, which happens to be where Pittsburgh needs the most immediate help.
21. Miami Dolphins: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
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A good friend of mine is a die-hard Dolphins fan. He complained about their left guard situation at the end of 2023 more than Nick Kygrios angrily whines in a tennis match. Juan, I gift you new starter Troy Fautanu to save your sanity.
22. (Trade) New Orleans Saints: Brian Thomas, WR
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The Saints dropped back a few spots, added extra picks and still got to select the same player I would’ve projected to them at No. 14. Thomas is a potential game-breaking receiving weapon who would likely have gone much higher in the WR pecking order in previous drafts.
23. Houston Texans: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
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Latu isn’t the most impressive athlete at his position, but there might not be a more technically sound, crafty pass rusher in this draft. He was very effective at UCLA and could be equally effective as Will Anderson’s counterbalance in Houston.
24. (Trade) Arizona Cardinals: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
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Trade details: Cardinals trade No. 27, No. 66 and No. 71 to the Cowboys for No, 24 and No. 56.
Arizona bundles picks to swap with Dallas to rise up and ensure they land the most disruptive defensive tackle in the draft in Newton. He’s got the potential to transform their defensive front quickly.
25. Green Bay Packers: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
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Is the speedy DeJean a cornerback or a safety in the NFL? For the Packers, who need both, they can figure out where best he fits in their new-look defense.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Robinson has all the traits a team like the Bucs could ask for in an EDGE rusher. It didn’t translate into production in college, but there’s too much potential to ignore for a Tampa Bay team that could use a reinforcing jolt.
27. (Trade) Dallas Cowboys: Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia
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The C-needy Cowboys were able to fall back a few spots and still land a ready-made starter in Frazier. One of the takeaways I had from the NFL Scouting Combine was that the NFL is higher on Frazier than he’s been projected.
28. Buffalo Bills: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
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McKinstry likely saw his chances to move up in the draft thwarted with his foot injury at the combine, but the Bills can surely use his feisty coverage skills after their recent purge of secondary talent.
29. Detroit Lions: Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
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Not typically available at 29, Murphy’s potential to pair with Alim McNeill and give the Lions a dynamic interior presence would have to intrigue GM Brad Holmes, especially with the top OL all off the board.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1)
The fastest man in combine history runs straight to the Ravens, where his field-stretching speed makes Lamar Jackson even more dangerous.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
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One of the draft process’s biggest risers, the heady Sainristil has already shown loads of NFL skill at CB despite playing WR at the start of his Wolverines career. The 49ers need his steadiness and upside in their secondary.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
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What do you get the 2-time defending champs? How about a powerful, promising but raw OT prospect who knows how to line up legally?