In this article, we’ll look at the good and bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games. It is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
4 Best, Worst Decisions of Week 10
Second-worst: Titans Playing it Safe
The situation: 12:44 left in the second quarter, Titans up by three, fourth-and-2 at the Buccaneers’ 33
The decision: 51-yard field goal
The result: Missed kick, subsequently lost the game
The Tennessee Titans came into this game looking for a win and searching for answers at quarterback by starting Will Levis.
The Titans moved the ball primarily through the air until this point in the game. If we were coach Mike Vrabel, we’d want to evaluate how Levis looks in such situations. Tennessee was well into Tampa Bay Buccaneers territory, needing only two yards for the first down. Despite this, Vrabel wanted to see what his kicker could do instead.
The decision to kick lost the Titans 4.3 percent xWPA. Because the kick was missed, Tennessee’s win probability dropped from 60.6 percent to 51.7 percent. Even if Vrabel doesn’t want to put the ball in Levis’ hands, a handoff to Derrick Henry (who has shown he can get two yards by merely falling forward) would’ve made sense.
Although the Titans lost by 14 points, Tennessee likely came away with some answers at quarterback. However, Vrabel’s decision didn’t contribute to a win.