The San Francisco 49ers are surging right now. They wiped the floor with the Dallas Cowboys last night and they just look flat out unstoppable. Here’s the thing, I don’t think they are unstoppable. I think there is a team that can stop them and I think that team is better. That team is the Detroit Lions.
Alright stop. I know what you’re doing right now. You’re thinking about the 2008 Lions or the Matt Patricia Lions and saying “there’s no way, its the Lions.” That’s not really a thing anymore. This team is for real and they are absolutely able to hang with the big dogs and beat them too.
Why am I making this proclamation? Here’s my reasoning.
For starters, these two teams are actually a lot more alike than you might think. Let’s start on the offensive side of the ball.
The 49ers have the second most offensive yards in the league right now with 2013 and have scored the second most points with 167. The Lions are pretty much right behind them. They’re fourth in yards with 1,922 and fourth in points with 148. They’re in the same class when it comes to the offense.
Where the Lions move ahead of them is the trenches. The Lions had the league’s number two ranked offensive line going into Week 5 and that number shouldn’t change at all after it. The 49ers were ranked 13th on that same list. So advantage Lions there.
On the defensive side of things, the teams are pretty much right next to each other again. The 49ers have allowed just 130 yards and 39 points less than the Lions. The two are in the same class there.
The defensive lines bring a lot of the same strengths to the table. The 49ers have allowed just 321 rushing yards and the Lions have allowed 342. Then there’s turnovers. The Lions have seven and the 49ers have nine.
Are you an analytics person? Ok. Let’s talk DVOA The 49ers are first in total DVOA and the Lions are third. Where the Lions come out ahead is on defense. They’re third in defensive DVOA and the 49ers are seventh. On offense, the Lions are fourth and the 49ers are second.
It may not look like it because you’re used to seeing the 49ers be successful and the Lions not being successful, but that this moment, these two teams are pretty much the same team. It could go either way. The reason I go with the Lions is because, ultimately, I think they’re the better team in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers have been good against the run, but they’ve played the 3rd, 18th, 24th, 29th and 32nd ranked offensive lines this season. The Lions, on the other hand, have faced the 6th, 8th, 9th, 30th and 31st. The Lions have imposed their defensive will against much better lines.
That’s why when you look at what the Lions defensive line has been able to do in the run stopping game and rushing the passer, you’re looking at an elite defensive front. The 49ers are elite too, the Lions are just more elite.
On offensive side of things, the Lions have faced the 7th, 10th, 11th, 13th and 17th ranked defenses and have still been able to score in bunches. The 49ers have faced the 8th, 18th, 27th, 28th and 31st ranked defenses and haven’t really been able dominate those teams like they did against the Cowboys on Sunday night.
I have to go with experience at quarterback too. Brock Purdy has looked pretty good this year, but I have to go with the guy that’s been there before over the guy that I’m still not sure is real. He may very well be, I just need to see more. Goff is playing the best football of his career right now and we have much larger sample size of that over the course of the last couple years.
At the end of the day, it’s really hard to be 100% certain here. These two teams don’t play each other this season. I am begging, and you should be begging too, for playoff matchup between these two teams. We’re talking about a game you won’t forget regardless of who pulls out the winner.
There’s a lot of season left. There’s still a lot of time to see if both teams can stay at this pace. At the end of the day, I thin both of these teams are very good. But, the Lions are better right now.