Allen Park — For the first time in five years, the Detroit Lions finished with a good enough record that the team shouldn’t be drafting in the top 10. But, thanks to a residual pick coming back from a 2021 trade that sent quarterback Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles, the Lions inherited the No. 6 pick this April.
And unlike last year, when Detroit held the No. 2 choice, the options are a little more open and unsettled heading into the event. In 2022, the focus was on edge rushers at the top of the draft, and the Lions ended up with their preferred option, when Jacksonville passed over Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson in favor of Georgia’s Travon Walker.
This time around, edge rusher remains an option at six, but it’s not as clear cut. So, with the draft a little more than two weeks away, let’s explore the many directions the Lions could go with the team’s first choice.
Trench warfare
Given where the Lions are selecting, the team’s long-term needs and perceived positional value at the top of the draft, the most likely scenario is taking a defensive lineman at No. 6. Plus, if you’re into reading the tea leaves, there was a recent comment made by general manager Brad Holmes that points to an affinity for strengthening the defensive front, based on his personal history with the Rams.
“I say back in St. Louis even, it got to a point where we had a pretty strong defensive line and we had some concerns elsewhere, but we just kept adding to our defensive line,” Holmes said last month. “And it just turned into this beast that was just a strength of the football team. So again, when you’re trying to stick to that depth chart, you’re trying to fill every hole, I just think that’s not the way that we do it. We just try to take the best player for us.
With that in mind, here are the options for the Lions up front:
▶ Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
If we are bold enough to project the most-likely option at No. 6, it would be Wilson. Assuming he’s still on the board when the Lions are on the clock, he checks a lot of boxes with his 6-foot-6, 271-pound frame, long limbs and a playing style that marries power with athleticism. He’s a player who saw his production continue to trend upward throughout his college career, peaking at 61 tackles (14.0 for a loss), 7.0 sacks and 50 quarterback pressures last season.
Stylistically, it’s easy to see some overlap with Romeo Okwara, who is entering the final year of his contract with the Lions. Both effectively use their length and power when setting an edge, and play with great effort to affect the pocket, even after their first rush plan is stymied by the offensive tackle. Wilson, who has more athletic upside than Okwara, has the size and strength to reliably handle lining up on the closed side of the formation. That frees up Hutchinson to be used more aggressively, attacking from a two-point stance on the opposite side.
▶ Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Speaking strictly in regards to his on-field abilities, no player in this class would better fill Detroit’s immediate needs. The 6-foot-3, 314-pound Carter is the total package as an interior lineman, equally dominant against the run and the pass, drawing comparisons to All-Pros Fletcher Cox and Jeffrey Simmons. Carter would provide an immediate boost to Detroit’s run defense, which allowed a dismal 5.2 yards per carry last season, as well as the interior pass, which has struggled to consistently impact games since the departure of Ndamukong Suh in 2015.
But, the only reason Carter figures to be available at No. 6 is off-field concerns. He was arrested and pleaded guilty to charges of racing and reckless driving after leaving the scene of an auto accident that resulted in the deaths of two individuals, including a former Georgia teammate. And a few weeks later, Carter showed up to his pro day overweight and out of shape, laboring through positional drills and raising questions about his work ethic and dedication.
It’s a true risk-reward conundrum for the Lions, who are still working on cementing the foundation, as the franchise aims to exit its two-year rebuild into regular playoff contention.
▶ Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Murphy was more frequently mentioned in the top-10 mix in the early stages of the offseason, but as analysts dug deeper into his film, and touched base with their league sources, he’s now more frequently mentioned as a mid-first-round choice in most places. Still, the upside is still intriguing.
First, he’s just 21 years old. Despite his age, he has three years of high-level college experience, logging more than 1,500 snaps with the Tigers. Unlike Wilson, Murphy hasn’t seen linear improvement with his production, experiencing a decline in quarterback pressure and sack totals from 2021 to 2022.
That said, he still offers great size, length and rare athleticism for the position, with elite speed and change-of-direction quickness.
Solidifying the secondary
Of course, nothing locks the Lions into addressing the defensive line at No. 6. Plus, there’s a legitimate scenario where Wilson is off the board, the franchise opts to pass on Carter due to the red flags, and Murphy is seen as a subpar value that early in the first round.
So, where are they likely to go from there? Well, cornerback makes plenty of sense. And you might be saying, ‘Wait, didn’t the team just add two corners in free agency, and a third if you consider C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s most likely fit being the nickel?’ Sure, that’s all true, but when you consider Emmanuel Mosely and Gardner-Johnson are each playing on one-year contracts, and Jerry Jacobs is set to be a restricted free agent next offseason, a long-term need remains clear.
At the very top of the draft, two corners stand out above the others in this relatively deep class of prospects.
▶ Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez is a physical prototype for the position, standing 6-foot-1, weighing 197 pounds, with long limbs and some of the best athleticism we’ve ever seen from a prospect, with top-end speed and leaping ability.
The tape shows a player capable of being physical at the line of scrimmage and fluid enough to flip his hips and stay in the receiver’s back pocket through any route on the tree. He’s good in run support, keeps the penalties and missed tackles to a minimum and showed much-improved ball skills his final college season, recording four interceptions in 2022.
▶ Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Witherspoon doesn’t have Gonzalez’s physical gifts, but he packs extraordinary competitiveness into his 5-foot-11, 181-pound build. He plays like each ball thrown in his direction is a personal insult, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete fewer than 36% of passes in his direction last season, while breaking up 14 and intercepting three.
And despite not having an ideal frame for the dirty work, he doesn’t show any hesitation in run support, firing downhill after a ball carrier and doing a better-than-average job making tackles in the open field.
The quarterbacks
The Lions have made repeated public commitments to starter Jared Goff this offseason following his stellar 2022 campaign, but the team also hasn’t ruled out taking a passer in the first round if that player is the best on their board. And while the recent flirtation with veteran Teddy Bridgewater — who reportedly has an outstanding contract offer to join the Lions — further suggests the team isn’t too serious about addressing the position via the draft, we have to continue to weigh the possibility heading into the event.
There are four quarterbacks in the mix to be selected in the first 10 picks. And while it’s possible all four are gone before the Lions are up, only Alabama’s Bryce Young appears to be a lock to be off the board by pick No. 6.
▶ C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
If Young is a lock, Stroud is 90% likely to be taken before the Lions have a shot, potentially even going No. 1 overall to the Panthers. The Buckeyes’ standout closed his college career on a high note, with a stellar showing against a Georgia defense overflowing with NFL talent.
Stroud possesses a good frame and above-average athleticism, although he’s more of a traditional pocket passer than a dual-threat quarterback, using his mobility to extend passing opportunities more than to scramble. He offers quality arm talent, both his strength and touch, delivering an array of accurate balls at all levels. The biggest concern is his ability to progress through all his reads, particularly when under pressure. As noted, he quelled some of those concerns against Georgia, but one great game doesn’t fully mitigate issues that showed up on film across his two seasons as a starter.
Amusingly, one of the common comps for Stroud is Goff. And you might ask, what’s the point of drafting a guy with a similar skill set as the current starter? The clear answer is money. Goff is tracking toward a contract extension that will pay him $40 million per season. Compare that to the No. 6 pick in last year’s draft, offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu, who will earn a little more than $27.5 million in his first four seasons.
▶ Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
If you like potential, there arguably isn’t a more appealing option in this draft. Another contender to go No. 1 overall, along with Young and Stroud, Richardson has immense physical gifts we haven’t seen at the position since Cam Newton.
Richardson, with his big frame and elite speed, is a threat to do damage with his feet at all times, similar to what we saw out of Justin Fields last season. But, Richardson faces significant concerns with his throwing accuracy, after completing just 54.7% of his passes through his college career.
That said, if you trust your coaching staff to take the time to build up and refine Richardson’s mechanical base, you have a potential superstar on your hands.
▶ Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Like Richardson, Levis has exciting tools to build around. He offers ideal size at 6-foot-4, 229 pounds, elite arm strength and high-end athleticism that make him a dual threat, although he’s shown the pass-first patience you want to see from a prospect who has the chance to succeed at the next level.
Finding a higher level of consistency than he had in college is going to be the key. Levis has shown below-average accuracy, tempo control and decision-making, leading to a higher rate of turnovers. He tossed 23 interceptions in the past two seasons.
In a lot of ways, Levis has the feel of a poor man’s version of Buffalo star QB Josh Allen.
The longshots
The three likeliest scenarios remain the positions we’ve already covered — defensive line, cornerback and quarterback — but there are a couple of outside-the-box prospects who merit at least some discussion for the Lions early in the first round.
▶ Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwstern
We mocked Skoronski to the Lions last month, but it feels increasingly unlikely with the way the team has approached the guard spot this offseason, both convincing Halapoulivaati Vaitai to take a significant pay cut and adding Graham Glasgow to the competition. Sure, the team has lingering long-term concerns with Vaitai, Glasgow and Pro Bowl left guard Jonah Jackson all playing on expiring deals, but it’s probably a position the team can more economically address on the second day of the draft.
Still, Skoronski is at least a little tempting. One of college football’s best offensive tackles, he’s plagued by concerns regarding his arm length, which could lead to the shift inside. It’s hardly unprecedented. He’d be following the path of former top prospects Zack Martin and Brandon Scherff.
The addition of Skoronski would continue to bolster Detroit’s roster strength with another potential stud to pair with Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell.
▶ Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Robinson is special. He should be one of the NFL’s top offensive talents for years to come if he can stay reasonably healthy. Still, given how quickly running backs tend to decline as wear-and-tear accumulates, it’s a challenge to justify going after the position inside the top 10.
And where would Robinson fit in Detroit following the addition of David Montgomery this offseason? Sure, it could accelerate moving on from oft-injured D’Andre Swift before his contract expires at the end of next season, but it’s hardly the best use of the team’s resources with eyes on a division crown.
Now, if Robinson is still available when the Lions are back on the clock at No. 18, it wouldn’t take nearly as much to convince me it’s worth pulling the trigger and figuring out the other issues later. But at No. 6, it’s a stretch.
Moving up in the world
Because the Lions did such a good job plugging roster holes through free agency, Holmes is in position to take a big swing at the top of the board, similar to the deal he made last year, moving up 20 spots to get receiver Jameson Williams.
The most likely trade partner is Arizona, at No. 3. The problem is that pick is reportedly a hot commodity, likely due to interest in the quarterbacks. That inevitably drives the price tag up. Still, if the Lions were able to climb three spots at the cost of a second-rounder and maybe one more lesser draft asset, it would be worthwhile. That would put them in position to snag Alabama’s Will Anderson, a premium edge rusher, to pair with Hutchinson.
Similarly, if quarterbacks are taken with each of the first four picks, with Arizona trading the No. 3 to some team currently behind the Lions in the order, it could make sense for Holmes to inquire about a swap with Seattle for the No. 5 pick to secure a shot at Anderson.
The always-popular trade down
Every year, there’s always a healthy contingent who want the team to trade down, but it takes two to tango. First, you need another team interested in moving up, then you have to like the package of picks they’re offering, while simultaneously being comfortable with the prospects you expect to still be available after moving down the board.
Generally speaking, the shorter the slide back the better. Detroit’s best bet to move back would be a lingering QB generating interest from teams like Las Vegas, Atlanta, Washington or Tennessee.
In these scenarios, Anderson would be gone and at least one other top defender, presumably Wilson. Moving back a handful of spots would likely keep Detroit in position to get one of the top corners, Murphy, Skoronski or even Carter, while acquiring an additional premium draft asset.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers