Welcome to another edition of our weekly Detroit Lions mailbag. Let’s see what’s on your mind.
▶ Question: Historically, are there any coaches who have started .250 or worse in their first 1.5 seasons that ended up turning it around and having successful careers with that team? — @Danieljhall6
▶ Answer: How about Tom Landry? He went 4-20-2 his first two seasons in Dallas and didn’t have a winning season until his seventh — not that Dan Campbell would or should ever be afforded that kind of leniency.
Some others of note:
Chuck Knoll began his time in Pittsburgh with a 4-13 record. Bill Parcells opened his tenure with the Giants with a 7-16-1 mark, before winning a Super Bowl in his fourth year. Dick Vermeil was 7-19 to start his career and then won double-digit games three consecutive years with the Eagles. And Bill Walsh, who won three rings in San Francisco, stumbled out the gate with a 5-23 mark.
A more recent example — which you listed but I trimmed from your question — is Zac Taylor in Cincinnati. He went from 6-25-1 in his first two seasons to a Super Bowl appearance in Year 3. So yeah, there’s precedent for great coaching turnarounds.
▶ Q: Is it coincidence that bad Jared Goff coincides with playing without D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown? — @_olsen10
▶ A: At some level, it’s unreasonable to be making excuses for a quarterback who is making north of $30 million this year. And I can assure you that Goff isn’t the type who is seeking an excuse for his less-than-stellar play the past couple of games. But no matter how much we tell ourselves he should succeed regardless of the circumstances, nearly every quarterback will experience a steep decline in production if you take away three of their top weapons.
St. Brown is Detroit’s best receiver. He does all the little things right, is largely sure-handed, and he can make something out of nothing after the catch. Swift’s dynamic play-making ability opens up the play-action and screen game and he’s a safety valve in the flat, capable of taking it to the house every time the ball is in his hands. And you didn’t even mention DJ Chark, but his ability to stretch the field, drawing the attention of a deep safety, creates space underneath for Detroit’s other receivers.
The Lions still have some productive options playing, including T.J. Hockenson and Josh Reynolds, so we’re not talking about the end of the 2018 season, when Matthew Stafford was leaning on the likes of Bruce Ellington and Levine Toilolo. But it’s also not that far off.
Goff has clear flaws in his game, including decision-making lapses under pressure and accuracy issues when throwing more than 20 yards downfield, but he’s also shown he can lead a high-octane offense when given the right pieces around him, both in Los Angeles and here to start this season.
▶ Q: Nate Sudfeld, how’s he doing? How many games like the last before he sees some reps? — @PPiratePete
▶ A: To be transparent, we don’t get to see any consequential portion of practice after training camp wraps, so I haven’t seen Sudfeld make a single throw in a team setting since signing in Detroit. As for whether the Lions would consider benching Goff in favor of his backup — similar to how the team has recently pulled cornerback Amani Oruwariye and defensive lineman Michael Brockers from the lineup — I wouldn’t count on it.
▶ Q: How much of Aidan Hutchinson’s success vs. Dallas was attributed to his own play versus Josh Paschal’s? — @kyle_warwick
▶ A: This wasn’t the Washington game, where Hutchinson’s three sacks were each created by a teammate doing the heavy lifting. Against Dallas, Hutchinson made his mark by winning his individual matchups, which is a much-needed, positive development.
That’s not to say Paschal didn’t play a role. His ability to reliably play the strongside defensive end freed the Lions to line up Hutchinson wider in the formation, while also allowing him to rush from his preferred two-point stance.
▶ Q: If Jameson Williams isn’t ready by Thanksgiving, do they sit him out all year? — @klbaum1077
▶ A: No, there’s nothing to indicate that’s how the team is approaching the rookie receiver’s rehab. The intention remains to get him on the field this year, even if it’s for 1-3 games at the end of the season.
Now, there’s a vocal group who doesn’t want to see him at all if that’s the way things play out, but that notion ignores how valuable the experience could be leading into his second year. Just getting a taste in the regular season will better prepare him mentally and physically for what it takes to succeed at this level and should result in a more rapid acclimation in 2023. That is when he figures to play a prominent role in Detroit’s offense.
▶ Q: Derrick Barnes graded out well per PFF on his 18 snaps against the Cowboys. What did you see from him? — @FfbJordy
▶ A: Not a ton, honestly. He didn’t make a dent in the box score in those 18 snaps, which were a healthy mix of run and pass downs. From what I could see, he was doing the little things right, such as filling his run gap or matching and staying with a receiving option through his zone, so that’s probably why he graded out well, despite the lack of a counting stat.
What we know about Barnes is he’s been a disappointment when asked to play a big role, but in small doses, he’s shown he can be effective. Linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard talked about that last week, noting he’s trying to pare Barnes’ defensive responsibilities down, so the player is not overthinking when he’s on the field and can play fast.
This game would be a good example of that plan working as designed, and ideally, Sheppard can keep adding a little more to Barnes’ plate each week, putting the second-year linebacker’s development back on a positive track.
▶ Q: You think Jeff Okudah’s role from the Dallas stays (third linebacker on certain downs), or does he stay at pure CB? — @KHMakerD
▶ A: Okudah’s role didn’t really change, as he remains purely an outside cornerback. What was altered was his alignments when he didn’t have a coverage responsibility to his side of the field, which was just one of several defensive tweaks the team implemented coming out of the bye.
Instead of staying outside of the formation in those situations, the team had their cornerbacks move further inside, presenting almost as a linebacker pre-snap. Obviously, Okudah thrived on those snaps, which is why we’re talking about it, but as long as there’s a receiver to his side of the field, that’s where his attention will be focused.
▶ Q: Have the Lions finally found their kicker in Michael Badgley? — @Drewchenko
▶ A: That’s probably premature, given the sample size of two kicks. I can tell you special teams coordinator Dave Fipp would be thrilled to find a reliable option to ride the rest of the season. And Badgley’s resume suggests he could be that guy, having made nearly 82% of his field-goal attempts through his five-year career.
Reliability from long distance has been his biggest weakness, but you’d never know that with the way he hammered home a 53-yarder in Dallas on Sunday.
▶ Q: It seems the team has been overwhelmed with injuries in recent years, including many, many soft-tissue injuries. Am I out of line for questioning what’s going on there? — @apendygraft
▶ A: No, you’re not.
The Lions haven’t been the most injured team in football the past couple of seasons. That designation belongs to the Baltimore Ravens. That said, the Lions have certainly had more issues than the average team. And it’s particularly troublesome when you have three guys go down with Achilles tears, making you wonder if there’s any correlation.
I couldn’t begin to assess whether the training or medical staffs are in any way culpable, but I know they’re evaluated like any other team employee. I also know the team had extensive injury issues under former coach Matt Patricia, as well, but the training and medical staffs have undergone extensive turnover since then. So, maybe it’s just bad luck.
And although I don’t have any data to back this up, I’ve long been suspicious of the impact of the playing surface at Ford Field. For anyone who has ever been on FieldTurf, it can be unusually soft compared to grass, and the grounded rubber pellets make it somewhat unstable, like running on sand. It’s easy to see footing giving way when cutting, leading to those dreaded high-ankle sprains, among other added strain to the various leg muscles.
It’s definitely a topic I’d love to explore further, but finding that kind of time is always tricky.
▶ Q: Has the league caught up to Ben Johnson or have turnovers and injuries made it feel that way? — @Tim1213
▶ A: Probably the latter, although the injuries do make it difficult to make a true assessment. If there’s one area where I’m concerned Johnson’s play-calling/designs might be too predictable is when the Lions face third-and-short.
The team’s ground game has been so good, from the blocking to the backs, but the offense is inexplicably ineffective when needing one or two yards on third and fourth down. They rank near the bottom of the league in those power-running situations.
▶ Q: Was drafting Jameson Williams a big flag that the Lions are going to be looking for a QB with a better deep ball to get the most out of his speed? — @vandej18
▶ A: Only if signing Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams and DJ Chark were also somehow red flags. What’s clear is general manager Brad Holmes values speed on the outside and has been trying to add it since joining the franchise. Williams is simply the GM’s latest swing.
Speed, beyond offering big-play potential, is valuable because it changes the way a secondary has to defend those weapons. As noted when talking about Chark earlier, his presence as a vertical threat can create space underneath for the other pieces in the passing game.
I do agree that Goff hasn’t been able to maximize the big-play component of having speed. Obviously, the Perriman and Tyrell Williams experiment never got off the ground, but the quarterback struggled to connect with Chark when he got a step deep, prior to the receiver landing on injured reserve because of an ankle injury.
▶ Q: Is Levi Onwuzurike a cut candidate after this season or would he be trade bait? — @TuckerDillon1
▶ Q: Does D’Andre Swift have any trade value before the end of the trade deadline this year? — Tom from Lansing (via email)
▶ A: Trading Onwuzurike, given his condition, isn’t a possibility. I don’t want to speculate on his future beyond that, at least until we have a better sense for how his recent back surgery went.
As for Swift, I wouldn’t be surprised if there would be some interest, but the Lions would be selling near the lowest point in his value, given his injury issues. And that’s assuming he’d even pass a physical with an acquiring team.
I know the Panthers were able to pull in four picks from San Francisco for Christian McCaffrey, who also has had some recent durability issues. But that’s also a guy who played more than 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in 2018 and 2019 and was sitting at 85% at the time of the deal. Swift has never played more than 51% in a season.
If a team came at the Lions with two Day 2 picks, in my opinion, it would be a no-brainer. But given his durability history, I struggle seeing anyone offering much more than a single third-rounder. And for all of the frustrations that go along with rostering Swift, he’s worth more to the Lions the next season and a half than that.
▶ Q: Is there a path forward that includes both a new QB and avoiding hitting “reset” on the rebuild? — @VADC20016
▶ A: Of course. The reset button has already been hit and wouldn’t need to be pressed again going from Goff to a rookie. In fact, the cap space that transition would ultimately create should allow the Lions to better fill out their areas of need with quality free agents, instead of flawed stopgaps.
▶ Q: How’s the cap situation looking for 2023 and who can we reasonably move on from that gives us the most additional room? — @larrymoreorless
▶ A: As it currently stands, the Lions have quite a bit of cap space tied up for next season, but things are fluid and will change rapidly once we reach the offseason.
While I’m not particularly keen on predicting who will or won’t have jobs next season, there are some obvious veterans who have cap hits that are tough to justify simply based on production, starting with Michael Brockers and Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Cutting them would create more than $17 million in additional space. Add in Romeo Okwara, who feels like a coin flip right now, and you’re talking $25+ million.
And, of course, the biggest possible decision is what to do with Goff. Just know, moving on from Goff could free up more than $20 million.
▶ Q: Let’s say the Lions land a pick in the 4-to-10 range and Will Anderson, Bryce Young, and C.J. Stroud are all gone. Who would you expect the Lions to look at in this range given their needs on the roster? — @PDub358
▶ A: We’re so far away to be making these predictions, but my early lean would be toward one of the remaining top defensive linemen, either Georgia’s Jalen Carter or Clemson’s Myles Murphy. The Lions still need help, both along the interior and on the edge, and either option should provide a big boost.
I’m sure there will be others who like Kentucky’s Will Levis at that spot, but I’m not far enough along in my own prospect studies to readily suggest he has the makings of being the franchise’s quarterback solution.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers