It took Tom Landry seven years before he had his first winning season with the Dallas Cowboys. It took Bill Belichick four years with the Cleveland Browns. So yes, even some of the best coaches in NFL history sometimes struggle to get their teams off the ground.
As the Detroit Lions enter Year 2 of what might be the most hyped rebuild in franchise history — thanks, “Hard Knocks” — we shouldn’t forget the precedent set by two iconic coaches the first time they were in charge of running a team.
Can you find examples of coaches who won right away? Of course. But guys like George Seifert and Don McCafferty are the rare exception and inherited winning teams under different circumstances. Do enough digging and you can find coaches who had early success and more or less sustained it.
That’s what the NFL hopes you’ll do. Find the right example that gives you the most hope and then ride with your team into the season believing that success is possible if enough things break right. Because it is possible. It’s just not probable.
Don Shula remains the gold standard for NFL coaches as the league’s all-time leader with 328 wins. But he only averaged about 10 wins in his career. Belichick, who will probably pass Shula, also has averaged about 10 wins.
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That’s actually an incredible feat when you consider it takes about 10 wins to get into the playoffs. How big is 10 wins? Zac Taylor won just six games his first two seasons in Cincinnati, and when he finally won 10 games last year he claimed a division title and got to the Super Bowl — after the Bengals drafted their quarterback and receiver of the future.
So how does this history apply to the Lions? Simply stated, you shouldn’t get your hopes up this year. If 60-plus years of history is any indication, the Lions complete rebuilds with the kind of speed that would make Dan Gilbert’s Hudson site look like an overnight tree-house project.
But it’s not just about the Lions’ own ineptitude. It’s about the realities of rebuilding in the NFL and that every organization is different, no matter how often they try to copy each other and hire subordinates from other winning teams.
I don’t know if Dan Campbell will turn out to be the Lions’ Landry, or if general manager Brad Holmes will be their Tex Schramm. Even though the Lions aren’t an expansion team like the Cowboys were in the 1960s, Campbell and Holmes should be given more time than most coach and GM tandems because they are rebuilding the Lions at the same time the franchise is resetting itself under a new owner.
I’m convinced that Sheila Hamp wants to be careful with how this team is built. I think that’s part of the reason Campbell was given a six-year contract last year, which is almost unheard of for a first-time head coach with a modest resume.
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That was the first signal the Lions aren’t going to rush this thing. Hamp wants a better culture built on inclusion and strong communication throughout the organization. Sure, she would like to see progress on the field in the form of wins. Who wouldn’t? But if you watched the Lions carefully last season, you would have noticed that even during 0-10-1 start, they were only blown out three times.
The 3-13-1 record wasn’t indicative of where the Lions stand. If there’s such a thing as a promising 3-13-1 record, this was it. Just ask Jaguars fans what they think of their team’s 3-14 train wreck last season. Campbell was decisive about correcting some of his errors, like demoting his offensive coordinator midway through the season.
I have predicted six wins for the Lions this year. The team looks improved in some areas but there are still too many concerns throughout the roster to think the Lions can take a major leap.
There are serious questions at linebacker and in the secondary. The offense has three Pro Bowl-caliber linemen, tight end T.J. Hockenson and questions everywhere else. There’s a first-time coordinator who’s charged with making the offense more explosive. Easy, right? The team has openly questioned running back D’Andre Swift’s toughness and willingness to be a great player. And Jared Goff is the Lions’ version of Santa Claus. Some of us believe, some of us don’t.
If you want to write this off as me being overly critical or pessimistic, I want you to know something. It’s easy to be positive and hopeful, but there’s no accountability when it comes to blind optimism. But I’m not going to lie to you about what I’ve seen and heard about this team. I’m not going to fill you with false hope and narratives about colorful players and Campbell’s even more resplendent news conferences. I’m not going to pay any mind to Swift talking about lofty yardage goals this season when he has merely struggled to stay on the field.
The jury will be out for at least three full years until we see how much of Campbell’s likable personality translates to wins. Holmes, who has a five-year contract, is a little bit ahead of Campbell’s progress. He has found three starters in each of two drafts, including three players who have Pro Bowl promise: Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Aidan Hutchinson. He hasn’t hit any home runs in free agency, but he also hasn’t struck out too much.
So please bear with me this season, and probably the next as well. You’re going to need a lot of patience as you watch this team try to improve over the next 18 weeks, and then the 52 weeks after that.
Contact Carlos Monarrez at cmonarrez@freepress.com and follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.