PITTSBURGH – Predicting the Detroit Lions’ 53-man roster is never easy, but figuring out which players will survive Tuesday’s NFL roster cut deadline was especially difficult this year.
Not only do the Lions have more depth than in past seasons — and therefore more competition for back-end roster spots at nearly every position — they also have several injury situations to navigate with young, developmental players they may want to hold onto.
The Lions already have placed first- and second-round picks Jameson Williams and Josh Paschal on the reserve/nonfootball injury and reserve/physically unable to perform lists, respectively. Williams and Paschal will miss the first month of the season, but should return at some point this fall. Neither counts against the 53-man roster.
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The Lions will have a decision to make on four other young players who’ve missed significant time this summer with injuries: Julian Okwara, Levi Onwuzurike, Ifeatu Melifonwu and C.J. Moore.
Lions coach Dan Campbell said last week Okwara was the most likely player of the group to be ready for the opener Sept. 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles. As the Lions’ primary strong-side linebacker, his spot is secure on my 53-man roster.
I was less certain what to do with Onwuzurike, Melifonwu and Moore. The Lions must carry all three on their initial 53-man roster if they intend to bring them back this season, but doing so would force them to cut a deserving player and hope they can re-sign that player once he clears waivers or as a vested veteran. If they place any of those three on injured reserve before Tuesday’s 4 p.m. deadline, that player is essentially lost for the year.
Onwuzurike is important, a 2021 second-round pick with a bright enough future that the Lions should keep him through Tuesday’s roster cut, then place him on IR on Wednesday if his back is still an issue. I’m not sure the same can be said for Melifonwu and Moore, though those scenarios are what the Lions will have to wade through.
With the Lions expected to make their first round of cuts Monday, here is my projected 53-man roster:
Quarterback
In (2): Jared Goff, David Blough.
I had the Lions keeping both Blough and Tim Boyle when I did my way-too-early roster prediction in July. That seems improbable now given the emergence of several depth defensive players and potential special teams contributors, and given Dan Campbell’s comments after Sunday’s preseason finale.
Blough and Boyle split second-team reps all camp and both have mixed good moments with careless mistakes. Boyle has more tools as a passer, but he struggled with accuracy and turnovers this summer. Campbell seems to appreciate Blough’s scrappiness, but also recognizes his limitations. The fact that Campbell offered no real support for either quarterback Sunday leads me to believe the Lions will look elsewhere for their backup. For now, though, I have Blough edging Boyle for the No. 2 spot.
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Running back
In (4): D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Craig Reynolds, Godwin Igwebuike.
PUP: Jason Cabinda.
IR: Greg Bell.
Justin Jackson gave the Lions plenty to think about in his bid for a roster spot. A summer free agent addition, Jackson ran for 54 yards on seven carries last week against the Indianapolis Colts and was first up in the kick return rotation Sunday. Reynolds, though, did nothing to lose his grip on the No. 3 job. He’s a powerful runner who had a strong camp, and both he and Igwebuike can contribute on special teams.
It’s possible Igwebuike could be on the chopping block — he played sparingly on offense this preseason — if the Lions prefer to keep Jackson as their No. 4 back or Trinity Benson or Maurice Alexander as their primary return man. I think he gets the fourth job, though, with Jermar Jefferson also on the outside looking in.
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Wide receiver
In (6): Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus, Tom Kennedy.
NFI: Jameson Williams.
One of the weakest positions on their roster last summer, the Lions have three players — Cephus, Kennedy and Trinity Benson — competing for what I think will be two spots at the bottom of a strong position group. Cephus offers the most value as a receiver. He’s big and strong and showed big-catch ability before breaking his collarbone last season. Kennedy is the most trustworthy of the group, and even with limited special teams value, that counts for something in Campbell’s eyes. Benson has the best physical tools of the bunch but has never had the production to match.
Ultimately, I put Cephus and Kennedy on my roster as I think in-game production has to count (even in the preseason). I could see Campbell stumping for Kennedy and Holmes making the case for Benson, who he acquired in a trade last summer, in their final roster meeting. If that happens, hopefully “Hard Knocks” shows the footage next week.
Tight end
In (3): T.J. Hockenson, Brock Wright, James Mitchell.
Hockenson and Wright have locked up the top two spots at tight end. The only mystery is what the Lions do at the No. 3 spot. Shane Zylstra has been the best of the rest of the group, but that’s not always how roster spots are decided. The Lions spent a fifth-round pick on Mitchell knowing he would not be ready to contribute early in the season while recovering from 2021 knee surgery.
It’s possible the Lions waive Mitchell and re-sign him to the practice squad, but from a roster construction standpoint, it makes more sense to expose Zylstra to waivers, bring him back on the practice squad and play him early in the year as the No. 3 tight end while Mitchell is finding his bearings.
Offensive line
In (8): Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Penei Sewell, Matt Nelson, Evan Brown, Tommy Kraemer.
The Lions have one of the best starting offensive lines in the NFL and five capable backups. It’s possible they keep 10 linemen, though that seems like a luxury with good health up front and young talent at other positions to hold onto.
Similar to receiver, I see three players — Kraemer, Dan Skipper and Logan Stenberg — competing for probably two jobs. Kraemer should be in as the eighth lineman. He’s young, cheap and has played well this summer, even taking backup reps at center. I give Skipper the slight edge on Stenberg for the ninth spot because of his positional value at tackle, though the Lions might want to hang onto Stenberg as a potential Vaitai replacement for 2023. Skipper, though, is a vested vet, so for the purposes of this roster prediction I have him being released Tuesday and re-signed Wednesday as part of the common roster chicanery in the NFL.
All five backups are worthy of roster spots. If Holmes can find trade value for one of his reserves, that could make the decision for him.
Defensive line
In (9): Aidan Hutchinson, Charles Harris, Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike, Michael Brockers, Austin Bryant, Jashon Cornell, John Cominsky, Isaiah Buggs.
PUP: Romeo Okwara, Josh Paschal.
Onwuzurike is an IR candidate and I set this roster with the assumption the Lions will place him there Wednesday so they can return him to the lineup at some point this season. Bryant is the top edge rusher off the bench, Cornell has played primarly with the second-team defense (and occasionally with the ones) in Onwuzurike’s absence, and Cominsky has earned a job with a strong training camp.
I went back and forth on the ninth lineman and ultimately kept Buggs over undrafted rookie Demetrius Taylor. Buggs started Sunday’s game in place of Alim McNeill and adds something the Lions don’t have much of on their defensive line — girth. Taylor had a nice camp and has upside as a pass rusher. He should return on the practice squad if he clears waivers, though I could see the Lions looking elsewhere for a backup nose tackle.
Linebacker
In (7): Julian Okwara, Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, Chris Board, Derrick Barnes, Josh Woods, Anthony Pittman.
If the Lions decide Okwara is not ready by Week 1, they could take the Onwuzurike approach and keep him on the 53-man roster for a day then place him on IR. That would allow them to bring back an extra offensive lineman (like Stenberg) or add an extra defensive back to the roster if they go shorthanded there.
Seven linebackers might be a bit heavy for a base four-man front defense, but Okwara and Pittman are essentially rush linebackers and Pittman and Woods are two of the Lions’ best special teams players. Rodriguez’s emergence cost Jarrad Davis a roster spot, and sixth-round pick James Houston seems ticketed for the practice squad.
Defensive back
In (11): Amani Oruwariye, Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes, Will Harris, AJ Parker, Bobby Price, Jerry Jacobs, Tracy Walker, DeShon Elliott, Kerby Joseph, Juju Hughes.
This is the trickiest position group to predict because there are so many scenarios in play. The Lions could open a roster spot and avoid exposing a player to waivers they want to keep by placing Jacobs on reserve/PUP. Doing that, though, would cost Jacobs at least four games, and the sooner he is back patrolling the Lions secondary the better.
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I do not have either Melifonwu or Moore on this roster, and without knowing the full extent of their injuries —Moore was in a walking boot one day last week — I can’t say whether the Lions will place one or both on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday (though that would make sense). It would sting to cut Melifonwu, a third-round pick in 2021, if he can’t be IR’d, and in that case the Lions might try and keep him around for a day while exposing a player like Kennedy or Hughes to waivers. Doing that, though, could leave the Lions thin at safety, and Melifonwu hasn’t shown enough in his 18 months in Detroit to warrant the Onwuzurike treatment.
Both Saivion Smith and seventh-round pick Chase Lucas have done enough to earn practice squad spots, and both have some of the position flexibility the Lions hoped Melifonwu would provide.
Specialists
In (3): Jack Fox, Austin Seibert, Scott Daly.
With no competition at punter or long snapper in camp, the only specialist job up for grabs is kicker, where special teams coordinator Dave Fipp said Seibert and Riley Patterson were running neck and neck for the job. Both players kicked well in their time with the Lions last season, but Seibert gets the edge because of his stronger leg. If there’s no interest in Seibert or Patterson on the trade market, whoever is cut could return on the practice squad.