Allen Park — Expectations are rising for the Lions, right or not, wise or not. An identity began to form late last season with a grinding, physical run game. For it to truly mean anything, expectations now must rise for key players, and the performances must match.
If the Lions’ injured guys return healthy, especially on that talented offensive line, they have a legitimate chance to double their victory total. Calm down, that’s not some bold statement. Double 3.5 wins and you could get to 7-10.
Sustainability requires availability, and two players are being challenged to do more — T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. Hockenson has missed nine games in three seasons and averages a modest 53 receptions. He remains in the second tier of NFL tight ends, not high enough for a guy drafted No. 8 overall. Swift has battled various ailments — concussion, shoulder, groin — in two seasons, playing well enough to confirm he’s a difference-maker, when available.
We always ask, ‘Where are the playmakers on this team?’ GM Brad Holmes added a whole bunch of possibilities on defense, including first-round pick Aidan Hutchinson. He added a possibility-in-waiting on offense in first-rounder Jameson Williams, the electric receiver recovering from ACL surgery.
But the Lions didn’t make a ton of additions. Some consider it a mistake. I consider it a gamble. Hockenson, 24, and Swift, 23, are big parts of that gamble, because if the Lions are going to rise, they’ll need help from within, especially from young talent in its prime.
During OTA workouts this week, messages were being sent, subtly and not so subtly. The Lions have had good player attendance, an apparent endorsement of Dan Campbell’s spirited coaching style. Even Williams and cornerback Jeff Okudah (recovering from Achilles surgery) have been there, unable to participate but eager to absorb.
Hockenson wasn’t on the field Thursday for unexplained reasons. To be fair, no reason is required because OTAs are voluntary. Swift has looked good, although you can’t show much in non-padded, non-contact drills.
The Lions need both to show more this season. They don’t want to have a good running game. They want to have a dominant running game, and with Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow back from toe surgery, they could have a top-five offensive line. Nothing wrong with leaning on the line. Also nothing wrong with wanting a No. 1 running back who can make tacklers miss, and a No. 1 tight end who can block and catch.
Assistant head coach/running backs coach Duce Staley issued a challenge to Swift, publicly and privately. Swift has missed seven games in two seasons and was slow getting started last year because of a groin injury in training camp.
“Injuries happen,” Staley said. “And one of the things Swift and I had a conversation about, you gotta be able to play through some of these as a running back. We all know there’s a difference between being injured and being hurt. So there’s gonna be some things he’s gonna have to fight through.”
I imagine the Lions have had conversations with Hockenson too. In football, many injuries are simply bad luck, although lingering issues produce lingering questions. He was sidelined for the final five games last season with a hand injury.
“Look, (Hockenson) is not a young guy anymore; he’s not a pup,” Campbell said. “You want him to set the tone for everybody else. So yeah, we expect that from him. I would say he takes that stuff serious.”
Campbell called Hockenson a “willing blocker,” which is not the same as a punishing blocker. He’s shown skill in the passing game but certainly isn’t as productive as rare tight ends such as George Kittle and Travis Kelce. The offense doesn’t ask him to do as much, nor is it equipped to do as much. Hockenson has only 12 touchdowns in 40 games and hasn’t been the red-zone monster the Lions hoped, as defenses focus on him.
Holmes and Campbell were encouraged enough to pick up Hockenson’s fifth-year option on his rookie contract, which now expires after 2023. If they want to sign him long term, this would be the time to think about it. Tight end has become a costly position, and with a good year, Hockenson could command upwards of $15 million per season.
“Here’s the beauty of Hockenson — and I’ve said this before — he’s a willing blocker who has the ability to win a one-on-one matchup in the pass game,” Campbell said. “But yeah, I think he still has more room to grow.”
For the Lions to commit longer, Hockenson has to be available and invaluable. He’s not there yet, and neither is Swift. A second-round pick in 2020, Swift has a four-year contract without an option. So his deal also expires after the 2023 season, and in a sense, he’s also in a contract year. He has rushed for 1,138 yards total in two seasons, with another 809 receiving yards.
Swift can be a game-changer and a superior cutback runner, and has averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a Lion. With the commitment to running behind that strong line, the Lions averaged 4.4 yards per carry overall last year, including 4.2 by former practice squad guy Craig Reynolds. It was their highest team average since Barry Sanders retired, suggesting they could pull a guy off the street and gain a yard or two.
Streaming options
After an 0-8 start, the Lions played respectably, going 3-5-1. So Staley isn’t bluffing when he talks up Greg Bell, an undrafted rookie from San Diego State, or Jermar Jefferson, a seventh-rounder who slowed flashes last season. He’s also not posturing when he says Reynolds, undrafted out of Kutztown State, could take a significant leap. Staley dubbed Reynolds “Netflix” because he essentially was on his couch when the Lions called.
“Last year, he was Netflix — we gotta make sure he’s Hulu this year,” Staley said. “Everybody’s got to graduate each year.”
Following the theme, the Lions need Swift to become Google-ish. The running game is stronger with a stronger, shiftier Swift, who looks noticeably bigger in the upper body. At 5-9, he hasn’t been physical enough to run effectively between the tackles.
Staley isn’t handing out plaudits or promises, not in early June, not until he sees more. As for that conversation about “fighting through” injuries, Staley said Swift took it well.
“Super positive,” said Staley, a running back for 10 NFL seasons. “Playing running back, you gotta make sure you protect yourself when it’s time to protect yourself. And there’s gonna be times where you gotta put it out there. … It’s very simple. You get in my room, I don’t have a starter. You want to play? Do more. You want to start? Win the position.”
Staley might have to make tough choices, handing the ball to the guy that earns it, not the one that demands it. The running back room isn’t necessarily stacked, but with Swift, Jamaal Williams, Netflix/Hulu, the Lions won’t be shy about changing channels.
The ideal outcome would be for Swift to emerge as a healthy, consistent star. My guess is that he will. But in the NFL, expectations (and contracts) come with expiration dates.
Bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
Twitter: bobwojnowski