Allen Park — We’re nearing the summer break for the NFL, that dead period between the end of OTAs and the start of training camp at the end of July. With that, I’ll also be looking to take a little time away. But before I go, I thought I’d clear out the mailbag one last time, answering some of your lingering Detroit Lions questions.
► Question: After watching the Tigers’ rebuild momentum stall, what are the chances the Lions have a setback next year as well? — @ReticentAuth
► Answer: The beauty of sports — and a good portion of the reason we love them — is they are unpredictable. Every franchise has a long-term vision, but only a handful of those visions are realized. Additionally, rebuilds rarely have linear trajectories.
I don’t follow the Tigers closely enough to understand all the nuances of their struggles, but the optimism of playoff contention always seemed to hinge on a lot of things going right, including good health, the continuation of career-level success for guys like Jonathan Schoop, Robbie Grossman and Eric Haase, a smooth adjustment for free-agent addition Javier Baez switching leagues, plus rookies Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson hitting the ground running.
Much like the Tigers’ hitters often did in April and May, they’ve gone 0-for-4 (to this point) in those areas.
As for the Lions, it would be difficult to take a step back from last year’s three wins, but it’s entirely possible the next step isn’t as significant as many people hope. On paper, things are certainly looking up. The offense has come together nicely and the defense maintained coaching continuity while getting an injection of pass-rushing talent.
More: ‘He’s been all business’: Lions rookie Aidan Hutchinson living up to early expectations
With some good health, and early contributions from Aidan Hutchinson, it feels like both the offense and defense should be middle-of-the-pack units, at the very least. That should be good for six to eight wins. That puts the franchise at a stage in the rebuild where fans really start to build up hope and where fear of regression might be a more relevant conversation.
► Q: At what point in the season should Jeff Okudah be at full strength? And could the Lions play him at nickel to help ease him back? — @_Julian_NYC
► A: Every person recovers a little bit differently from injury, but the standard with an Achilles tear should have Okudah nearing a return to full activity during training camp and back at full strength approximately a year after the surgery.
In addition to your suggestion of moving him to slot corner, I also received a question about Okudah shifting to safety. Signs suggest neither is being immediately considered, given the third-year cornerback was lining up on the outside during the walkthrough segments of last week’s OTA practice.
And that makes sense to me because why would you heap the mental burden of a position switch on top of a player already working through the physical and mental strain of a grueling rehab, all while having to process the continuous pressure of living up to lofty expectations that come with being a former first-round draft pick? That’s a recipe for failure.
► Q: Barring anything crazy, which QB, at the moment, is the best fit for the Lions to draft in 2023? — @JAgrusa1
► A: It’s so early, and as we’ve seen with the recent, in-season rise of quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett, there’s likely to be a shift in our present perceptions.
But, if forced to pick a QB today, it’s difficult to talk about anyone other than the two at the top of the class, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young.
When working through Jameson Williams’ tape for my film review on the rookie receiver, I had a good opportunity to check out Young. The first player who came to mind when watching the Alabama signal-caller was Russell Wilson. Young is on the shorter side, but he moves fluidly in the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield, always looking to pass first before scrambling, despite having plenty of ability to do damage with his legs.
As for Stroud, I admittedly haven’t seen as much, but he has a more NFL-ready build and has proven to be an excellent deep-ball passer, which could fit nicely with the offense the Lions are trying to build following the addition of Williams. GM Brad Holmes clearly loves elite speed on the outside, so it makes sense to add a QB capable of utilizing it.
► Q: How do you see the Lions’ wide receiver room shaking out? — @bigdrewtweets
Why are all things Cephus so quiet? Give us that wide receiver starting/returning rundown please. — @MarkVanBuren
► A: Wide receiver has gone from a glaring weakness to a position of relative strength in a little more than a year. With the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the retention of Josh Reynolds and the additions of DJ Chark and the speedster Williams, Detroit has a group full of potential.
Going into the season, I would expect Chark, St. Brown and Reynolds to be the starting trio with Chark manning the ‘X’, Reynolds returning to the ‘Z’ role he played in Los Angeles and St. Brown in the slot. That’s obviously the base look, but all three are being cross-trained and will all likely play various alignments.
Williams, as he gets healthy, can be eased into action at all three spots, most likely eating into Reynolds’ playing time the most, assuming everyone is healthy.
More: Receiver DJ Chark eager to branch out, expand route tree with Lions
As for the depth, my early lean has the team keeping six receivers with Quintez Cephus and Kalif Raymond rounding out the rotation.
With Cephus, I got the sense the new regime didn’t expect a whole lot when they inherited him, but he impressed on the practice field and with his early-season opportunities. He might not be the most athletic option on the roster, but he’s savvy beyond his years with his route running, which carries plenty of value. As for Raymond, his abilities are a return man should keep him around.
► Q: Hypothetically, If Aaron Glenn leaves for a head-coaching gig tomorrow, which internal candidate gets promoted? — @Erc148
► A: Well, the good news is that’s highly unlikely to happen at this stage in the offseason. But let’s take the conversation into next offseason, where it’s easy to envision a team poaching Glenn, especially if Detroit’s defense has even a modicum of success. The current coordinator just has that unexplainable “it” factor when it comes to dealing with players, and the media, which makes him easy to project as a future face of a franchise.
If that happens, the two candidates most likely to be promoted from within are defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant and defensive line coach Todd Wash.
More: Niyo: Aaron Glenn happy to be with Lions, even as he continues coaching climb
Pleasant is a rising coaching star who has accumulated enough experience as a position coach and pass-game coordinator to be considered for the bigger role. Like Glenn, Pleasant has been able to forge deep personal connections with his players and has a magnetic (sometimes borderline manic) energy about him.
As for Wash, he has both the experience, having coordinated Jacksonville’s defense for five seasons, and the respect of head coach Dan Campbell.
► Q: What position is still being looked at to fill with remaining free agents? — @joecimino1960
► A: This was something on my mind immediately after the draft and I posed a question to Holmes about remaining roster holes. As you might imagine, I got a fairly generic response to that query, but if we scan the roster, I wouldn’t expect the team to be adding any starting-level talent at this stage of the offseason.
More: Lions notes: Coaches expect competition to heat up for linebacker jobs
The team is relatively set at quarterback, wide receiver, running back, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and safety. Even at cornerback, there’s enough depth there with the addition of Mike Hughes, that another body isn’t going to threaten to crack the rotation unless Okudah or Jerry Jacobs’ recoveries stall out.
Tight end was a position I was watching closely throughout the draft, because I thought the Lions had room to add some competition there, but Garrett Griffin (signed March 28), fifth-round pick James Mitchell (recovering from his own ACL injury) and a couple of undrafted free agents provide the necessary depth for quality competition.
► Q: Who starts at safety Week 1? — @gigasmith67
► A: Obviously, Tracy Walker is going to man one of those spots. As for his running mate in the back end of the defense, I’ve liked the idea of Deshon Elliott filling that role from the moment he signed with the team. And the fact he was running with the first-team defense last week suggests the Lions feel the same way.
Of course, you can’t mention Elliott without noting his extensive struggles staying healthy. But when he’s been on the field during the early stages of his pro career, he’s performed well. He showed better-than-expected coverage skills as a 16-game starter in 2020, and at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, he has the frame to be effective in run support. He’s also shown he can be effective rushing the passer when asked to blitz.
Obviously, Will Harris will remain in the mix, and at some point, Kerby Joseph should push for snaps, but the rookie is going to need some development with only playing the position two years after converting from wide receiver.
► Q: We all love T.J. Hockenson and he’s a stud, (but) that’s a big contract coming up. Is that money better spent elsewhere or sign him at any cost? — @MarkVanBuren
► A: Yeah, Hockenson is definitely on the cusp of cashing in. Look no further than the four-year, $54.8 million contract ($28 million guaranteed) David Njoku just received from the Cleveland Browns. Given he hasn’t produced at nearly the level of Hockenson as a pass-catcher, that’s probably the floor for the contract talks between him and the Lions.
But even if the Lions gave Hockenson a contract worth $15 million per season, on par with the highest at the position, it would barely crack the top-20 for a receiver. That’s worth it to me for a guy who could catch between 80-100 balls and is a willing and still developing blocker at this level.
At some point, even in a rebuild, you have to decide who your foundational pieces are and invest in them. The Lions have done that with Frank Ragnow and Walker already, and Hockenson is another one who makes sense.
► Q: I keep hearing about the NASCAR package the Lions plan on implementing on defense. How often will we actually see it and who would be the top rushers on the roster right now that they would use? — @justinhecht
► A: The package here is a lighter, faster front four designed to get after the quarterback in obvious passing situations. Down-and-distance opportunities will dictate how often you’ll see it, but it could be something the team regularly utilizes on third downs if they like how it’s looking on the practice field.
On the inside, Hutchinson, Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike are all good options. Hutchinson could also stay outside, given his diverse pass rush skill set, but Charles Harris paired with one of the Okwara brothers makes a lot of sense to me.