Detroit hosts the Washington Commanders on Saturday night in what is expected to be one of a couple of shootouts in this weekend’s playoff matchups.
The Lions are favored by a whopping 9.5 points, but the volatility of this Commanders offense could prove to make bettors think less about betting on the spread and more about that 55.5-point over/under
Lions head coach Dan Campbell acknowledged the talent of Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels during a press conference leading up to Saturday’s game.
“He’s dangerous, he poses a major threat,” Campbell said. “He does not play the position like a rookie quarterback. He’s composed, he’s a dangerous runner, he’s smart. And then he’s got weapons around him.”
The Lions won’t be getting a typical No. 6 seed in these Commanders. There are three major keys to the game if they want to make it back to the NFC Championship.
1. Keep Jayden Daniels off the field
The most obvious concern for the Lions is the versatility of Jayden Daniels.
In Week 18 against the Vikings, the Lions aggressively attacked quarterback Sam Darnold with blitz after blitz. While it rattled Darnold, the same strategy will be more challenging against someone as poised as Daniels.
The Lions rank 31st in the league in success rate in yards per play against quarterback runs, whether designed or otherwise. They’ll no doubt be bringing pressure, but it’ll be a significant gamble no matter what.
Daniels faced pressure on 18.5% of his dropbacks during the regular season, and scrambled 73 times while under pressure. On those 73 scrambles he racked up 8.1 yards per play.
The Commanders offense also thrives on the no-huddle, running plays without a huddle more than any other team by a mile.
Those plays are the ultimate counter for what this banged-up Lions defense likes to do, so the counter to that counter is simply to keep Daniels at bay.
The Lions will want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, running the clock down and wearing the Commanders defense down. The return of David Montgomery and the current roll that Jahmyr Gibbs is on should help the offense move at will for long, grueling drives.
If the Lions keep the Commanders defense on the field and while Daniels and the offense try to run the no-huddle as they like to do, their defenders are sure to wear down early and open up even more for the Lions to keep putting up points.
2. Get Sam LaPorta involved early
Where the Commanders match up well with the Lions on offense, they match up poorly on defense.
The Lions should plan to run the ball down their throats early, which should quickly open up the middle of the field, which is already a weak point in the Commanders’ secondary.
Linebacker Bobby Wagner is expected to play, but even with him on the field, Lions quarterback Jared Goff should be able to get tight end Sam LaPorta involved immediately.
I know LaPorta is almost exclusively scoring on the most absurd of trick plays this season, but he should have even more opportunities in this game as the Commanders continue to roll out of the nickel formation and suffer from fairly short breaks in between drives.
LaPorta had a slow start to the regular season but turned it on in December, averaging 5.2 catches and 67 yards over five games including two touchdowns.
3. Win the 4th down battle
Dan Campbell and Commanders head coach Dan Quinn are two of the most aggressive decision-makers in the league this season.
Washington led the league in the regular season with an 87% 4th-down conversion rate and converted 3-of-5 attempts in their first-round playoff win over the Buccaneers. The Commanders and Lions combined for 56 4th-down attempts this season.
“I think that’s who we are the whole season,” Quinn said. “But when you do get stopped early, you just have to stay the course knowing that, ‘Hey, keep your chin tucked and keep swinging,’ knowing that this is going to be a game that’s going to go all the way down to the end.”
Campbell is no stranger to that mentality and will certainly be asked to make some of those tough decisions on Saturday night.
The Lions defense stood tall against the Vikings in Week 18, stopping their offense on 4th down on all three of their attempts, keeping them out of the endzone early and often.
Winning the battle of those key plays could easily turn the tide for either team in Detroit this weekend. Campbell and the Lions will just need to make sure they’re the ones coming out on top.
This article was originally published by Usatoday.com. Read the original article here.