Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had been having an amazing season prior to Sunday’s win over the Texans. Through six games he was completing 83.3% of his passes and had a passer rating of 133.7. There was absolutely no doubt that he was in the MVP talk and that he could have been a leader for some voters.
Then on Sunday night he went out and had a pretty bad game where he threw five interceptions and that has lead to some of the talking heads saying that Goff is out of the MVP race.
Here’s the thing, I still think it’s Goff’s award to lose even after that game and it’s for incredibly simple reasons. The voters almost always give the award to the quarterback of the team with one of the first seeds in the conference. I mean almost always.
Yahoo Sports’ Frank Schwab broke it down in July. Of the last 15 players to win the NFL MVP award, 12 of them were quarterbacks of one of the number one seeded teams. Two of them went to the number two seeds, but that hasn’t happened since 2016. The other one was a running back in 2012. This is how the voters think. They don’t think like you and me and they don’t think like the guys on TV.
So that puts the race between Goff and Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think anyone would accuse Mahomes of having a great season right now. While the Chiefs are undefeated, they feel like a team that could go on a losing streak at any moment and Mahomes’ play this season might not be good enough to get them out of it.
Goff on the other hand is playing a really good season and just had one bad game. He’s been better than Mahomes this year. I know casual football fans and people who play Madden don’t want you to believe that because Mahomes can make a behind the back throw in preseason games, but it’s true.
Now, if Mahomes starts balling out, then he’s going to get it because the voters are kind of lazy and like to go with the incumbent a lot. If he doesn’t and the Lions keep winning and Goff gets back to the way he’s been playing before Sunday’s game, he’s going to likely be the first Lions quarterback to bring home the award. Watch Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. If they Ravens can jump the Chiefs, then it’s his.