It’s been a long time since the Lions played the Texans in Houston. The two franchises haven’t faced off in Texas since 2016, and the Lions have lost both prior trips to NRG Stadium in Houston.
This time around, the Lions are favored even with the Texans posting an impressive 6-3 start and fielding a dark-horse MVP candidate in QB C.J. Stroud. In order to get some intel on the AFC South leaders, I turned to Texans Wire editor Cole Thompson with some questions about Houston and how Sunday night’s game might play out.
Thanks to Thompson for some honest answers, which is one of the reasons I hired him at Texans Wire some eight years ago.
The Texans passing game has some injury-related chaos with Stefon Diggs and the OL. How will the unit look against Detroit?
Well, there will be a shuffle, according to the people I spoke to. Jarrett Patterson is back from concussion protocol and is expected to start at center, moving Juice Scruggs over to left guard. That might be the best-case scenario since Scruggs played left guard last season amid a playoff run.
Tank Dell might be on the injury report, but he’s expected to play. Nico Collins remains the wild card after being elevated from the injured reserve on Friday afternoon. He wants to play and was in great spirits, but the Texans can’t afford to lose the Pro Bowler for a three-game stretch of winnable games. I’d say he’s 50/50 playing on Sunday, meaning someone else musty take over as the new No. 2.
Joe Mixon has been great lately. What dynamic does he bring to Bobby Slowik’s offense?
When the Texans were looking for a running back in free agency, I thought Aaron Jones and Mixon were the top two options to target. Why? The duo has experience playing in a Shanahan-style personnel with Cincinnati and Green Bay, respectively. That’s been beneficial for the Texans, especially with Slowik’s predictable first-down play-calling.
Mixon has been exceptional with setting up the pass. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per attempt but thrives on second down. His 5.5 yards per carry opens the playbook on third down for C.J. Stroud. The consistency of Mixon also gives Slowik a positive option each play. The run blocking has been strong enough to create avenues for a net gain.
How has the pass and pass coverage performed?
Both are hit-and-miss. Depending on the pass protection, Stroud can get into his bag. He has three multi-touchdown outings and 11 explosive passes of 20-plus yards. And to be fair, of the five interceptions thrown, only one is on him. It really comes down to the protection up the middle.
While the Texans rank third in pass coverage, it’s been based on quarterback play. Last week, when taking on a four-time MVP in Aaron Rodgers, they gave up three touchdowns in man coverage. Sam Darnold tossed four scores, though Houston was without Jimmie Ward in coverage. Much like the Ravens, Houston will give up the touchdown in the red zone. If they can’t stop the run, they’ll allow points inside the 20. Houston is getting back a healthy Ward, so at least that’s promising.
A lot of similarities seem to exist between Lions coach Dan Campbell and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans. Do you see that?
Yes and no. Both are players’ coaches and know how to rally the troops. They understand what their team is going through because they went through it. They both played for their respective franchises and were a part of the rebuilds as players, which is why they knew how to fix the program.
But Campbell was mocked for his introductory press conference for wanting to “bite kneecaps.” People said he was in over his head and wasn’t the guy after an ugly start in 2022. Ryans was not only the favorite to be hired during the 2023 cycle. Some were even shocked he even took the Texans’ job given the previous two one-and-done deals.
Both deserve ample praise, but their path to stardom differs, even if their coaching styles are similar.
What one thing about the Lions worries you the most from a Texans standpoint?
The flexibility. Everyone has mentioned Jared Goff and the passing game, but it’s more than that. The offensive line does a great job of understanding the balance of how to attack running lanes depending on the matchup between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Ben Johnson also has the trickery down to where teams fall for the bait and eventually trail by two touchdowns.
Detriot’s only way of losing is if it beats itself with careless penalties and turnovers. The Lions are the most complete team in the NFL and should be considered the favorite to win it all.
What worries me? Everything. This game could get ugly quickly.
Who wins and why?
I just said this game could get ugly in an instant. I think it does. Yes, the Texans could have Collins back, but the Lions recently activated Jameson Williams, so that becomes another thing to prepare for in coverage. The combination of Gibbs and Montgomery on the ground can help Detriot control the clock, forcing Houston to move fast if it plans on scoring.
The Texans are a solid team. You don’t go 6-3 if you’re a bad roster. Houston can make the postseason and probably win a playoff game. But the Lions can win it all and leave no doubt. Fans at NRG Stadium are about to see that in person.
Lions 34, Texas 20