Could Aidan Hutchinson really return for the Super Bowl?

The Super Bowl is a long ways away, but Lions fans don’t often get the opportunity to dream like this so let’s do it. With the increasing chatter that Aidan Hutchinson might play in the Super Bowl, here are my thoughts.

Why might Hutchinson NOT play in the Super Bowl?

• He will only be partway through his rehab and won’t be at full strength physically.
• His effectiveness may be very limited and worse than his replacement.
• Theoretically, he might be putting himself at increased injury risk.

Here are the reasons why Hutchinson WILL play in the Super Bowl

• All indications suggest an uncomplicated tib/fib fracture that doesn’t affect the ankle or knee joints. Healing should be relatively straightforward. The reported estimated timeline is 4-6 months with the Super Bowl coming in at just under 4 months (17 weeks).
• There is no way to quantify injury risk, so opinions will vary, but it is reasonable to believe that his injury risk over baseline will be minimal, if any. With the Super Bowl 17 weeks from the time of injury, the bone will almost certainly be well-healed by then in a young, healthy individual. Further injury to the bone should not be an issue. There will be atrophy and weakness of the legs being only partially into rehab, but whether the leg weakness would cause increased injury risk is far from definite.
• Players will absolutely come back earlier than they are ready for the opportunity to play in a championship game. Some notable examples are Terrell Owens in 2005 who played in the Super Bowl seven weeks after an ankle fracture, Jaylen Waddle who was still hobbling from a similar ankle fracture in the 2021 college national championship game, and Philip Rivers who played with a torn ACL in a conference championship game.
• Even if there is an increased risk of injury, many if not most will accept the risk for a possible once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to experience a Super Bowl. After all, players are already accustomed to being exposed to a high baseline risk of injury in every routine NFL game. A slight added risk will not be much of a deterrent.
• Even if there is an aggravation of his injury or a compensation injury, Hutchinson will have seven months to recover before the next season starts. Yes, there is the risk of a long-term injury (Achilles, ACL, etc.) but that risk is ever-present and not necessarily increased by coming back early. The risk may even be decreased with less power in his legs.
• Nobody in the NFL is 100% during the season, much less at the end of the season. Players are all dealing with physical ailments and weaknesses. Expecting Hutchinson to wait until he is at full strength isn’t a reality or a necessity.

Here are the reasons why the Lions will open a roster spot and let Hutchinson play in the Super Bowl

• Hutchinson is one of the most important players on the team going forward – arguably the second most important player behind Jared Goff. The Lions invested a #2 overall pick in him, and he has quickly lived up to that status. At his current pace, he could end up being one of the greatest to ever don a Lions uniform. Maintaining a good relationship with this level of player is important, and that means giving him the opportunity to play in the Super Bowl.
• Hutchinson has a long recovery ahead of him and having a Super-sized pot of gold at the end of the rainbow will be excellent for his mental health. He’ll still be able to feel like he is a part of this year’s team. Maintaining positive mental health should always be a major factor in any player decision.
• Even if the Lions don’t think he’ll be effective physically, he could still make a difference as a decoy or distraction to the opposing offense. The opponent won’t know his physical status so they may expend resources to double team him or chip him even if he doesn’t deserve it.

Bottom Line

Unless there is a setback in his recovery, expect Hutchinson to play in the Super Bowl. Expectations for his performance should be tempered, though, as he will still be early in his recovery, and it will likely be his first game back.

During the game, Hutchinson’s strength, burst, quickness, and stamina will be limited, and he won’t play his usual 90% of snaps. Hopefully he makes a big impact, but even if he doesn’t, his appearance will still be an uplifting result with long-term benefits for the team and the player.