Autumn has arrived, even if it felt like midsummer for much of the last week in Michigan. The nights are getting cooler, and the warming power of the sun isn’t as high.
That lack of offensive heat has already hit the Detroit Lions. Ben Johnson’s unit has gained yards almost at will, but converting those yards into points has been like an early frost; it’s beautiful until you have to scrape it off your car windshield, and the hoodie and shorts you’re wearing makes you feel a lot colder than needed.
The Lions travel to Arizona to try and defrost the scoring bus. Spoiler alert: They get it rolling today.
Why I think the Lions will win
The offense has been outstanding until it reaches the red zone. It’s inside the opposing 20-yard line (really the 25) where the opposing defenses have done a really good job of condensing the middle of the field and forcing QB Jared Goff to get the ball out on his first read. Other than the smashmouth overtime touchdown drive by RB David Montgomery and the offensive line in Week 1, the defenses have gotten the better of Johnson’s offenses.
I don’t think the Cardinals can do that with their defense. Outside of Dennis Gardeck, the Arizona pass rush isn’t one that intimidates the offense. Their cornerbacks, led by 2023 Lions castoff Starling Thomas, aren’t sticky in coverage or particularly disruptive.
Let’s play the “don’t overthink it” card: Starling Thomas starts at outside CB for the Cardinals. It’s the same Starling Thomas that couldn’t make the CB-desperate Lions a year ago (Detroit kept Steven Gilmore and Kindle Vildor over him). He’s actually shown some improving ability and certainly has closing speed, but it’s unlikely Thomas would be active on game days in Detroit.
On defense, the Lions draw a good RB in Arizona’s James Conner and a complementary back in rookie Trey Benson. They’re an impressive 1-2 punch, though that’s been more in theory than practice in the first two weeks. Detroit’s ability to snuff out the run by RBs is the basis for their defensive rise. The Cardinals line is a good one in run blocking, but I still buy into Detroit’s interior combo of DJ Reader and Alim McNeill and a deep LB corps behind them to control it.
Speaking of the run…
I think this is a get-right game for Ben Johnson and his play-calling. If Montgomery is racking up six yards a carry behind the snowplow of an offensive line, I am of the belief that Johnson won’t foolishly abandon it like he’s done this year. I am also of the belief that Dan Campbell won’t let Johnson deviate from what’s working to earn style points. This team needs actual points, not the style one.
Detroit’s pass rush has been outstanding, and the “crush the can” style from big EDGEs Aidan Hutchinson, Levi Onwuzurike and Marcus Davenport can be very effective against a more finesse-based Cards tackle combo. Led by Hutchinson, this pass rush can contain the edges on its way to the quarterback, and it also opens up opportunities for slot blitzes that have proven very effective against the Cardinals.
What worries me about the Cardinals
Two words: Kyler Murray.
Don’t mistake Murray for a run-only threat. The young Cardinals QB has evolved as a passer, showing better timing and ball placement than he has in the past. He’s capable of winning from the pocket as long as the line keeps him clean, a la Jared Goff.
Unlike Goff, Murray is one of the NFL’s best escape artists and runners. Detroit’s defense has been endemically vulnerable to quarterbacks who can tuck and run, and I don’t think that changes against Murray and the Cardinals. He could very well get 100 yards on the ground, and that sets up a spritzing of read-option runs and quick passes that can make the defensive heads spin.
Murray also has a couple of impressive targets in rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride. Harrison vs. fellow first-rounder Terrion Arnold is a premium rookie matchup, and I expect each to record some victories in that battle. McBride serves the Sam LaPorta role in Arizona and does so a lot more effectively than his low name recognition might have Lions fans expecting.
Final score prediction
I see the Lions prodigious offensive yardage production finally turning into points on the scoreboard. I think going on the road, wearing the all-whites, and being focused on what’s gone right thus far will serve them very well. Arizona will put up more than 20 on Aaron Glenn’s defense. I think Detroit’s offense will outscore whatever the defense gives up.
Lions 36, Cardinals 31