2-Point Conversion: Bucs Put NFC On Notice With Win Over Lions

The Bucs put the NFC – and the NFL, really – on notice that they are a team to be reckoned with in 2024.

All of a sudden, Tampa Bay is 2-0, while Detroit and San Francisco, which won the NFC last year, are each 1-1.

It’s early, and a 2-0 start means little right now, evidenced by the fact that the Bucs have started 2-0 the last two years and finished just 8-9 and 9-8 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. But it beats being 1-1 – or 0-2 like some other playoff contenders like the Rams and the Bengals and Ravens in the AFC.

What I liked about this win – and you should, too – is the fact that Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and his banged-up defense finally made Jared Goff look mortal rather than an invincible football god. Bowles and his defensive coaches spent time this offseason rewatching those two losses to Detroit last year and making some changes to their coverages and the pass rush.

Tampa Bay didn’t get a sack on Sunday, but had 23 pressures and 11 QB hits on Goff, forcing him into a pair of interceptions on 60 pass plays. And this was without top pass-rushing defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, and only having Vita Vea for a half before he left with a knee injury. Yaya Diaby led the way with seven pressures – five hurries and two QB hits.

In the playoff loss at Detroit, the Bucs pressured Goff only 17 times and hit him just three times with a pair of sacks on 48 pass plays. Goff was pressured six more times in Week 2 and hit twice as much in the Bucs’ victory.

In Detroit’s Week 6 win at Tampa Bay, Goff was hit just once, sacked three times and pressured only 16 times on 48 pass plays.

So improved pressure helped, but so did improved pass coverage. Zyon McCollum earned an 83.2 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, allowing just two receptions for 20 yards on six targets. He also had his first career interception on Goff’s first throw of the game and broke up a career-high four passes. Christian Izien, who was replacing Antoine Winfield Jr., had Tampa Bay’s other pick.

After a defensive masterpiece in a revenge game against the Eagles in the Bucs’ 32-9 Wild Card win, I thought Bowles was going to devise a better game plan against the Lions for that rematch in last year’s playoffs. But Goff’s numbers were nearly identical in the 31-23 win over Tampa Bay to what he put up in the 20-6 victory in Week 6. What a disappointment.

And what a difference a year makes.

Bowles and his coaching staff get a tremendous amount of credit for a much better plan of attack and for getting Izien ready to play safety and preparing rookie nickelback Tykee Smith for Sunday despite missing practice time due to an illness.

And of course, the players get plenty of credit, too.

“Zyon and Izzy got one,” Bowles said. “Between that and the red zone on defense, that was the tale of the tape right there. We were pretty good in the red zone, we were pretty good – we won the turnover battle, I think. They made a lot of plays, it was a fight to the end and we made the plays to win the game.”

The key stat of the game was holding the Lions to just 1-of-7 in the red zone. After losing the playoff game in the fourth quarter, 14-6, the Bucs defense forced a punt, got an interception and forced two turnover on downs at the 11-yard line and the 26-yard line in the fourth quarter this time around.

Tampa Bay is for real this year – at full strength or not.

STATEMENT 2. Baker Mayfield Is A Legit MVP Contender

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has accounted for six touchdowns in the team’s 2-0 start, including four touchdown passes in the 37-20 season-opening win over the Commanders. It wasn’t pretty against a strong Lions defense in Sunday’s 20-16 upset win at Detroit, but Mayfield was effective with a passing touchdown and a clutch rushing touchdown. He completed 12-of-19 passes for 185 yards and overcame his first interception of the season, too.

Mayfield also survived being sacked by Aidan Hutchinson 4.5 times to scramble five times for 34 yards, including an 11-yard touchdown run on a designed QB keeper in the red zone. He finished as Tampa Bay’s leading rusher due to his escapability and improvisational skills.

“Did a heck of a job using his legs and then getting open, finding [Chris (Godwin) for some third down wins right there that kept some drives going for us, and we needed every one of them,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said.

Mayfield’s six touchdowns are more than any other player through the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season. New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr has also thrown five touchdowns and one interception as the Saints are off to a 2-0 start themselves.

Denver’s passing defense is one of the stingiest in the league thus far, holding opponents to just 134 yards per game. Yet the Broncos have only faced Seahawks QB Geno Smith and Steelers backup QB Justin Fields in the first two weeks of the season.

If Mayfield can have another multi-touchdown game – and more importantly help his team to a 3-0 start – he’ll continue to gain momentum for not only his second-ever Pro Bowl nod, but also remain a strong candidate for NFL MVP honors.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Is It Time To Think About A Chris Godwin Contract Extension?

Yes. Chris Godwin is a man on a mission. He knows exactly how Mike Evans felt last season having to play on his contract year. And Godwin saw Evans rise to the occasion, ball out, and earn a massive, two-year, $41 million extension at the age of 30.

Through two weeks, the laser-focused Godwin has caught all 15 of his targets for 200 yards and two touchdowns, which already matches his 2023 scoring total. Godwin is in the final year of his three-year contract that pays him an average of $20 million per season.

Godwin turns 29 next March and the Bucs have to weigh the cost of having two aging receivers making over $20 million for the foreseeable future. Yet, if Godwin keeps playing like this all season, how could Tampa Bay afford not to re-sign him?

It’s time to start thinking about it for sure. It’s only been two weeks, but second-year inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis has been an absolute X-factor for the Bucs defense. In fact, I said he would be the X-factor on defense for Tampa Bay in Week 2 at Detroit in Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 column. And I was right.

After Dennis notched seven tackles and his first NFL sack in a Week 1 win over the Commanders, he received more playing time on Sunday. Smart move by Bucs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles. Dennis had 21 snaps to starting inside linebacker K.J. Britt’s 39 in Week 1 and Britt only recorded five stops.

Against the Lions, Dennis out-snapped Britt 44-41 and recorded a career-high 11 tackles, including an alert stop on a fake punt attempt by Detroit that prevented a big play from being an even bigger one. Britt finished with four tackles.

This isn’t to suggest that Britt is a bad defender. Just that the faster and more athletic Dennis is showing signs of being the better defender. Certainly the more impactful one through two games. This is something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Tampa Bay Cruises To 3-0 With Win Over Denver

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is on fire to start the season. Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix is certainly not to start his NFL career. Through two games, Nix, the team’s first-round pick, has completed 59.7% of his passes with zero touchdowns and four interceptions while also being sacked four times.

Nix does have a rushing touchdown, and is actually the Broncos’ leading rusher through two games with 60 yards on nine passes. Not a good sign when a rookie QB doesn’t have a running game to lean on. Also not a good sign when rookie QBs face Todd Bowles’ exotic pressure packages and disguised coverages. I predict the Bucs to win big to start 3-0.

PREDICTION 2: Bucs Running Game Bounces Back vs. Broncos

The good news for Tampa Bay is that Rachaad White’s groin injury that he suffered early in the Detroit game isn’t significant and he should be able to play this Sunday when Denver comes to town. Expect a bounce back performance from the ground game as the Bucs roll over 100 yards again thanks to White and Bucky Irving.

The Broncos have the league’s 24th-ranked rushing defense through two weeks, allowing 143.5 yards per game on the ground. The Bucs might even have their first 100-yard rusher of the season on Sunday.