Projecting the 2024 NFL season results: How far do the Lions go?

The 2024 NFL regular season kicks off this week. Real football is back!

Expectations for the Detroit Lions are rightfully sky-high, coming off the team’s best season in the Super Bowl era. But that’s also true in many other NFL cities, whether merited or not.

Will the Lions live up to the hype? What other teams will rise up and challenge for playoff supremacy? Which teams will fizzle? Which teams should already be looking toward the 2025 NFL Draft?

To sort all that out, I went through and picked the winners of every single NFL game. Using Pro Football Network’s simulator, I manually chose who won and lost in every game of every week. It was generally a snap reaction to the matchup, though in some cases I did look at things like recent schedule (bye weeks, long road trips, etc) and the potential for weather conditions. I did not pay attention to the rolling win-loss records for teams.

Here’s how the regular season played out with my picks for all 32 teams.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins: 11-6
Buffalo Bills: 10-7
New York Jets: 7-10
New England Patriots: 2-15

The Dolphins have lethal speed on offense and a core that is growing up together. Miami’s trenches look better, too. Buffalo continues to be a dangerous team with Josh Allen and a feisty defense, but it feels a bit like their peak has already happened.

The Jets have real talent but real holes. I’m not a big believer that 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers returns well from his Achilles injury and meshes with a team and coach he doesn’t appear (from afar) to like at all. New England kicks off a new era with what looks like the best chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6
Dallas Cowboys: 10-7
New York Giants: 7-10
Washington Commanders: 5-12

The Eagles peaked early last year, but they’re a well-coached, veteran team that’s very good in the trenches. If they stay healthy, it’s hard to see them not winning this division. Dallas is a house of cards, albeit a very high-end talented one at many spots. I expect some big wins with some wildly unexpected losses for the Cowboys.

The Giants are a solid, emerging team with a massive question mark in Daniel Jones at QB. New York is my pick for a surprise sleeper in the NFC of the teams that didn’t make the postseason in this exercise. Washington is searching for stability after changing everything from the owner on down. There’s talent amidst the chaos, but it’s hard to see it clicking right away.

AFC South

Houston Texans: 12-5
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
Indianapolis Colts: 7-10
Tennessee Titans: 6-11

The Texans finishing atop the heap was no surprise, but running away from the pack like this was unexpected. They’re a formidable contender with C.J. Stroud at QB and a lot of youthful vigor on defense.

Before starting the game-by-game run-through, I had mentally penciled in the Jaguars and Colts both in the 8-to-10 win range. So Indianapolis and Jacksonville each finishing 7-10 was interesting. The Colts early schedule turned against them, while the Jaguars lost a few coin-flip outcomes–including to the Colts in Week 18. Nearly all the “pick ’em” games for the Jaguars are road games. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if one (not both) rose up and finished 10-7.

Tennessee could also be better than the 6-11 finish here. Maybe. The Titans are an enigma to predict with a new coaching staff and variable QB in Will Levis.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: 11-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-8
New Orleans Saints: 8-9
Carolina Panthers: 4-13

Of all the eight divisions, the NFC South was the one that played out the closest to how I expected it before starting. The Falcons have very high-end offensive potential if Kirk Cousins is healthy and the new-style coaching proves an upgrade, which shouldn’t be difficult.

The Buccaneers have a strong core that will make them a tough team to beat. They’re another team where the schedule hits their win ceiling hard here. The Saints have too much talent to be bad, not enough to be better than the 7-to-9 win range. Carolina will be better than in 2023, but they’re still too early in the overhaul to see more than a handful of wins this year.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4
Denver Broncos: 7-10
Los Angeles Chargers: 7-10
Las Vegas Raiders: 4-13

The Chiefs are the clear class of the division; I picked them to sweep all AFC West foes, and that helps lead them to the No. 1 seed. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Kansas City gets back to the Super Bowl.

Denver and Los Angeles are both high-variance teams in my mind. They’ll both win enough to be interesting. It should be fascinating to watch Jim Harbaugh attack “Chargering” with a team where nearly every key player is injury-prone. Sean Payton could lead the Broncos to being a surprise playoff team if his lines hold up.

The Raiders are a team with a painfully thin NFL middle-class pool of talent. Their top-end players are great, but Las Vegas lacks that solid core to augment them. That can make for a very long season.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Los Angeles Rams: 9-8
Arizona Cardinals: 7-10
Seattle Seahawks: 7-10

Much like the AFC South, there’s a clear-cut top dog in the 49ers and what looks to be a tightly clustered pack behind them that is quite variable in how it sorts out.

The reigning NFC champs are still quite formidable, though I’m not sure they’re as good as they have been the last couple of seasons. Can’t argue against San Francisco’s stars or coaching.

One of the biggest variables in the NFL this year is how the Rams adjust to life without Aaron Donald. Los Angeles has some fun pieces on offense. Arizona is growing into a better team around Kyler Murray. I don’t trust the Cardinals defense yet, and their lines are tough to trust entering the year too. The Seahawks could be poised for a big drop after changing coaches and not adding a lot of impact this offseason, though that’s not necessarily reflected in the outcome here.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns: 11-6
Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8

All four teams finishing with winning records in these projections is a testament to how tough the AFC North looks to be. Any of the four teams can win the division, though it would take some pretty strong luck for the Steelers to capture it. Any of the four teams can come in last, and the Browns might be the most likely to finish last; Cleveland is very dependent on Deshaun Watson being good, even with a Browns defense that might be the NFL’s best.

NFC North

Detroit Lions: 12-5
Green Bay Packers: 12-5
Chicago Bears: 10-7
Minnesota Vikings: 4-13

The one you’ve all waited for…
Dan Campbell’s Lions finish 12-5 and win the division on a tie-breaker over the Packers. Interestingly, I had both mentally pegged at 11-6 before I started. The Lions offensive firepower, defensive playmakers and more experienced core get Detroit the nod over a precociously talented Packers team.

All the attention for the Bears appears to be on Caleb Williams, but Chicago quietly has a very good supporting cast to help the No. 1 pick. Their defensive playmakers are capable of winning some games, too.

Then there’s Minnesota. I see the Vikings being on the wrong end of a lot of outcomes where both teams score in the 30s.