Lions 53-man roster prediction at the start of training camp

Starter: Jared Goff

Reserve: Hendon Hooker

Asterisk: Nate Sudfeld

The question here is, do the Lions opt to keep No. 3 QB Nate Sudfeld on the 53-man roster at cutdowns?

I don’t think that happens, not with numbers crunches at a few other positions. Sudfeld is a vested veteran who they can confidently cut and then bring back to Detroit after the waiver claim shuffle that takes place following the August 27th roster cutdowns. Sudfeld could even wind up being active on the 53-man roster, but I don’t think that will be his status immediately after the trim to 53.

Starters: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs

Reserve: Sione Vaki

Asterisk: Craig Reynolds

The Lions have two high-level starting running backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Even though only one will be on the field at any given time, they both qualify as starters. (Sidenote: I would love to see Monty and Gibbs in the backfield together in some packages!)

Rookie Sione Vaki has enough big-play potential and receiving ability to merit sticking as the No. 3 back, though it’s Vaki’s expected value on special teams that makes him indispensable.

As with the quarterback situation, I think an asterisk is merited here for the running backs. Just as they did a year ago, I think the Lions will cut Craig Reynolds in the roster cutdowns with the full intent of bringing him back. But Reynolds has some legit competition for that spot in a healthy Zonovan Knight, and perhaps Jake Funk or Jermar Jefferson too.

Either way, I think when the initial 53 is established, it will only have three RBs on it.

Starters: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams

Reserves: Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Isaiah Williams, Antoine Green

The duo of St. Brown and Jameson Williams is set as the starters. There is very little doubt that Raymond or St. Brown are in any real peril of not making the 53-man roster, too. Green likely enters camp next in line and could conceivably move up with a strong summer showing, though that’s not a given.

Isaiah Williams earns the nod here as an undrafted rookie due to his special teams potential, namely as a return specialist. RB Sione Vaki could win that role and deny Williams a spot, with a more accomplished wideout like Daurice Fountain or Maurice Alexander instead taking a spot on the 53. Big camp battle forthcoming here.

Starter: Sam LaPorta

Reserves: Brock Wright, Parker Hesse, James Mitchell

The last projection only had three here, but I have changed my mind and gone with a fourth tight end. LaPorta and Wright might be the only two who get more than 10 targets on the season, but there is room for a blocking tight end who can also play special teams. That’s Hesse, who I quite strongly believe is viewed ahead of Mitchell (and Shane Zylstra) by the coaching staff. That blocking/special teams combo could also Mitchell, at least for now. He’s No. 53 of 53 in these projections and his 2022 draftee status won’t save him if Mitchell doesn’t prove he belongs in camp.

Starters (L-R): Taylor Decker, Graham Glasgow, Frank Ragnow, Kevin Zeitler, Penei Sewell

Reserves: Colby Sorsdal (T), Christian Mahogany (G), Gio Manu, Netane Muti, Kayode Awosika

Detroit has the best starting five offensive line in football. As long as Zeitler is close to what he’s been in his impressive career, the OL might actually be better than it was in 2023.

Alas, the depth is not nearly so certain.

It seems extremely unlikely the Lions would cut last year’s fifth-rounder, Colby Sorsdal, or either 2024 draft pick, Giovanni Manu or Christian Mahogany. Sorsdal figures to start camp as the No. 3 tackle. Mahogany will compete with versatile holdover Awosika and newcomer Muti for interior reserve roles, with Glasgow again serving as the backup center.

There are a number of different possibilities in how the line shakes out. Could be the Lions keep just nine. Could be that valuable sixth OL Dan Skipper doesn’t need to go through the process of being cut and then brought back, which is the projection here. Could be the team opts to keep an actual No. 2 center like Michael Niese or one of the three undrafted rookies (all play guard and center) looking to make some noise in camp. The early nod there goes to Kingsley Eguakun, but that could change by Friday.

Starters: Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport

Reserves: Josh Paschal, James Houston, Mitchell Agude, Mathieu Betts

Hutchinson could very well break into All-Pro status in 2024. He’s the defensive catalyst and my choice for the team’s MVP outside of the quarterback position.

Beyond Hutchinson, very little on the depth chart pecking order is established. If Davenport, a priority veteran free agent signing, is healthy, he’s certainly part of the mix. The same is true of Paschal and Houston, both of whom have shown legit flashes in divergent styles when healthy.

In these projections, I’m going with the upside of Mitchell Agude and the promise of CFL star Mathieu Betts over John Cominsky, who lost some luster in 2023 while playing more inside than he did in an impressive 2022. If you ask me if I feel the same in a week, my mind could very well be changed. Having a new defensive line coach in Terrell Williams is another variable that clouds the projection forecast, as we don’t have a real track record of what he wants in his players.

Starters: Alim McNeill, DJ Reader

Reserves: Mekhi Wingo, Brodric Martin

Asterisk: Levi Onwuzurike or John Cominsky (one not both)

Entering camp, I am of the belief the top three spots are set with McNeill, Reader and Wingo, whom the team loves as a late-round rookie with the ability to play in the B and even the C gap. GM Brad Holmes saw enough promise in Martin a year ago to make him a third-round draft pick. Despite the fact Martin showed little abilty to contribute at all as a rookie, the developmental plan is still very much in place.

Detroit does have some insurance options in vet Kyle Peko and versatile John Cominsky

The Onwuzurike asterisk comes from Reader’s preexisting injury status. Recovering from a torn quadriceps might require some extra depth and a diminished role for Reader early on, and in that case it makes sense to keep a hard-working returning vet like Onwuzurike or a more versatile DT/DE like Cominsky over a sixth wide receiver or fourth TE. If Reader begins training camp on the NFI reserve list, or if Martin still isn’t ready for Sundays, that possibility seems more likely.

Starters: Alex Anzalone, Jack Campbell

Reserves: Derrick Barnes, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Malcolm Rodriguez

In a defense with a lot of change, the linebackers are a beacon of stability. All five regulars from a year ago return. The only anticipated change is Campbell taking over for Barnes as one of the starters, a development that is a lot more about Campbell’s upside in his second season than any dissatisfaction with Barnes’ play.

In the spring, Barnes saw more looks in a SAM role, which carries more pass-rushing connoitations in Aaron Glenn’s defense than other off-ball spots. It’s more akin to the role Barnes thrived in while playing collegiately at Purdue and, as a bonus, it could provide the Lions an opportunity to carry one less EDGE if they so choose. In this projected scenario, they did not.

Rodriguez and Reeves-Maybin are two of the league’s better special teams players, and both have proven capable in sub-packages and reserve off-ball LB duties.

Starters: Terrion Arnold, Carlton Davis

Reserves: Amik Robertson, Ennis Rakestraw, Kindle Vildor

The top four names here are all new to Detroit. Davis and Arnold are going be very difficult to beat out as the starting outside cornerbacks. The veteran Davis brings toughness and a playoff pedigree, while Arnold has sky-high potential as Detroit’s first-round pick.

Robertson and Rakestraw are both solidly on the 53, though in which order and what exact roles remain to be seen. Vildor gets the early edge on the fifth CB spot for his special teams work and explosive speed, even if Lions fans are (understandably) slow to forget his NFC Championship game foibles.

I know you’re thinking it, so here’s the preemptive answers on the two glaring omissions here…

1. I think Emmanuel Moseley starts the season on the PUP list and won’t be activated until at least October, if at all. Two ACL surgeries in a 13-month period is not an easy recovery.

2. Brian Branch will play a lot of cornerback, no doubt. But the superb slot man as a rookie figures to see a lot more action in a safety role in 2024. Therefore, Branch is included with the safeties.

Starters: Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, Ifeatu Melifonwu

Reserves: CJ Moore, Brandon Joseph

Based on coversations I had in Allen Park during OTAs and minicamp, this is how I think the safeties shake out.

Branch and Joseph are the duo against passing offensive sets (3 or more WRs or empty backfields). When the offense goes with 2 TEs or two backs with the QB, Melifonwu jumps in as the box safety where he thrived down the stretch in 2023. There will be times where Branch is the slot CB and Joseph and Melifonwu both play, too–the status quo from last season.

Moore might never play a snap on defense, but it’s tough to see him not making the roster because of his special teams experience. That the Lions were willing to bring Moore back after a year-long gambling suspension says a lot about how much they value his special teams contributions. Joseph, an udrafted rookie a year ago, bumps up from the practice squad to the 53-man roster in the old Will Harris role.

Kicker: Michael Badgley

Punter: Jack Fox

Long snapper: Hogan Hatten

Fox has no competition at punter or holder. He’s also capable of kickoffs, and perhaps even emergency QB duty.

Badgley won the mental coin flip over UFL legend Jake Bates. That one can go either way. May the best leg win.

Hatten emerges as an undrafted rookie to seize the long snapper role from Scott Daly, who is coming back off injury. That battle could also go either way.