While the Detroit Lions draft plans for this coming weekend are uncertain, one thing is sure:
There will be trades.
GM Brad Holmes and his front office regime are known dealmakers. They trade, trade back, and they’ve even traded back to trade up—it’s what the Brad Holmes Lions do on draft weekend.
Draft trades are an exercise in balancing desire and value. To that end, various draft trade value charts have sprung up over the years. Jimmy Johnson’s from his time running the Dallas Cowboys is the most famous, but the game, salary obligations of rookies and values of the league have changed quite a bit since Johnson’s era in the 1990s.
A more updated trade value chart was created by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit a few years ago, and it’s a much closer approximation to how the NFL values the draft picks in modern times. Here’s what this year’s Rich Hill draft trade value chart looks like:
The values aren’t steadfast; teams use them as guidelines more than as hard numbers that cannot be compromised.
Take the Lions trade with the Cardinals last year. Detroit dealt away No. 6 and No. 81 overall, a value of 501 points on the trade chart. Arizona gave up No. 12, No. 34 and No. 168 to Detroit to move up. Those picks equate to 532. There is generally a bit of a tax on the team moving up, and that was true with this trade that netted the Lions Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and (after another trade) Brodric Martin.