The 2024 NFL draft will kick off six weeks from tonight in downtown Detroit. It’s sneaking up quickly as the focus has shifted to free agency, but it’s the heart of pro day season and player visits with teams, too.
In honor of the six-week mark, here is a sextet of draft thoughts about the Lions and what might happen with the team during draft weekend in Detroit.
Offensive line is still my prediction for the first pick
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Six weeks out, I am still of the belief that the most likely position the Lions select in the first round is offensive line. Nothing that has happened in free agency has changed that; Graham Glasgow coming back and Jonah Jackson departing were both expected. Dan Skipper was never going anywhere else. To this point, that’s the extent of the free agency movement.
Among the leading OL candidates who could realistically be on the board, my personal order of preference:
Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Graham Barton, Duke
Zach Frazier, West Virginia
Jordan Morgan, Arizona
Believe Brad Holmes when he talks about character
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Here’s what Holmes said at the NFL Scouting Combine when directly asked about the importance of intangibles in the draft evaluation process,
“If anything it’s taught us to make sure you put even more focus in on them, in terms of when you may have — not saying that we ever ignored intangibles, but maybe if you said, well, he has this X amount of talent, ability, and say that the intangibles aren’t on steroids, but just needs a little bit of work. And you learn some lessons along the way.
But I still am a firm believer that is the true separator of success at this level. I can name countless examples back from when I was with the Rams and countless examples even now within these three years that we’ve been building, but we look at our top players that have been really core foundational players and they have the intangibles that we’re looking for so it’s not a surprise they’ve had the success they’ve had.”
Take him at his word. I certainly do. When you hear reports from major, established draft outlets questioning effort, love of the game, or willingness to take coaching, pay attention. They might not always be fully accurate, but those are rarely borne out of thin air.
Not ruling out an early CB even after the recent acquisitions
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In the last three days, the Lions have overhauled the outside cornerback group. They’ve traded for Carlton Davis, signed Amik Robertson, and brought back Emmanuel Moseley.
While it’s diminished the urgency at the weakest position on the roster in 2023, there is still room for some permanence. Davis is currently on an expiring contract (though that could very well change by the time you read this), Robertson is on a two-year deal and Moseley’s health status is iffy.
It might not be the first-round pick, but I still think the Lions are very much in the market for using one of their first three picks on an outside cornerback.
Some names I like in some semblance of value-added order:
T.J. Tampa, Iowa State (2nd round)
Kris Abrams-Draine, Missouri (3rd round)
Kamari Lassiter, Georgia (1st round)
Max Melton, Rutgers (2nd round)
Cam Hart, Notre Dame (3rd round–only because the Lions don’t currently have a 4th)
I think trading for Carlton Davis ends any potential to trade up from No. 29
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs gets upended on a tackle by Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III during the second half in the playoff game at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024.
Like most Lions analysts, I’ve been very open to the idea of Brad Holmes trading out of No. 29 overall. Holmes has proven he’ll deal – and deal in either direction.
However, I think dealing away No. 92 for Carlton Davis will limit the ammunition and the desire for Holmes to move up in the first round. Having two third-round picks this year (DET still has Minnesota’s pick at No. 73) and also not having a fourth-round pick means the price to move up more than a couple of slots would almost certainly cost the Lions either their second-round pick in 2024 or their top pick in 2025, plus No. 29, as a starting point.
That seems quite unlikely for a couple of reasons.
First, I don’t believe Holmes would want to handicap his valued strategy of draft-and-develop by dealing away so many valuable assets. Secondly, there has been no indication, on or off the record, that the Lions are that fixated on any one player, or envision any one option that would be vastly superior to others.
Mid-round DTs I’m watching with an eye for Detroit
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One of the primary reasons the Lions hired Terrell Williams as the new defensive line coach is Williams’ proven ability to develop raw talent. I expect the Lions to lean on that when (if?) they address the interior defensive line in the draft.
Last year it was Brodric Martin, who was admittedly out of left field. Martin is still there are a project, but there’s room for another DT to get added in the third through fifth rounds of the draft. Three that have caught my eye as developmental types, as opposed to instant contributors, who seem to fit what the Lions like in their interior defensive linemen:
Ruke Orhohroro, Clemson
Jordan Jefferson, LSU
Justin Egboigbe, Alabama
The Lions have met with all three during the draft process. Williams coached Jefferson and Egboigbe during Senior Bowl week, too.
I’m enjoying not knowing
Six weeks out from the draft and I still can’t offer more than a somewhat educated guess as to what the Lions are going to do with their first pick. Beware anyone else who claims they know more than that, too.
I happen to like the relative ignorance. Drafts under Bob Quinn weren’t fun because that regime was plainly obvious in what they were going to do; many of us in both the Lions media and draft media knew Jarrad Davis was going to be the first-round pick in 2017 before Senior Bowl week was over. Frank Ragnow, T.J. Hockenson and Jeff Okudah were all completely unsurprising picks from very small pools of known interest.
That’s changed under Holmes, Ray Agnew, John Dorsey & Co. Other than Aidan Hutchinson at No. 2 in 2022, they’ve kept everyone guessing about their real draft intent. We’ve found some legit nibble trails here and there, but it’s been more about players they weren’t going to draft than ones they coveted. Even that front has been quieter (though not silent) this year.
I’m not afraid or ashamed to say I don’t know what the Lions are going to do in six weeks. Again–be very wary of anyone who claims they do.
Heck, I covered the Browns in a year when Dorsey had the No. 1 overall pick. More than half of the beat writers, including the team’s own version of Tim Twentyman, didn’t truly know Baker Mayfield was going to be the choice until after breakfast on the day of the draft and got the No. 1 pick wrong in their final mock drafts (I guessed right). Dorsey has taught Holmes well in that regard, no doubt about it.
Professionally, that’s aggravating and anxiety-inducing. From a fan standpoint, I love the suspense. I’m hoping the personal balance there stays shifted to the latter for as long as possible.