2-Point Conversion: Jared Goff Is The Puzzle Todd Bowles Can’t Solve

Goff and the Lions are now 2-0 against the Bucs, winning in Tampa Bay, 20-6, back in Week 6, and again on Sunday in Detroit in the Divisional round of the playoffs, 31-23. For the second straight game, Bowles and his defense were just about helpless in slowing down Goff, who completed 30-of-43 passes (76.7%) for 287 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions in Detroit’s playoff win. Back in Week 6, Goff completed 30-of-44 throws (75%) for 353 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

In both games, Bowles attempted to blitz, but did not have much success getting to Goff, who was blitzed 213 times in the 2023 regular season, which was the second-most in the league. Out of 48 passing downs, Goff was only pressured on 17 of them, with 11 coming from Vita Vea (six) and Calijah Kancey (five). Goff was sacked just twice – once by Kancey and another time from a blitzing Lavonte David.

“We did a little of both,” Bowles said about playing more coverage as well as blitzing Goff. “The biggest thing was the underneath coverage. Like I said earlier, they didn’t get as much. They got out late. Going into the fourth quarter, we held them down pretty good. Then they started making some plays in the fourth quarter. Give them a lot of credit. They have a lot of talent. Some things we didn’t do as well that we did in the first three quarters. He’s a great quarterback and they’re a very good football team. The better team won yesterday.”

Just like in the Week 6 loss to Detroit, Goff carved up the middle of the field in front of linebackers David, K.J. Britt and Devin White. David led the team with 13 tackles, Britt had a career-high 12 while playing 53 snaps and White had just one tackle playing 12 snaps.

“He’s a good quarterback,” Britt said of Goff. “The game has slowed down for him and he’s real comfortable in the pocket. The other thing is that he has a real good O-line protecting him. He knows where his throw windows are and moving guys around, and he’s just comfortable back there. To beat him you have to get him off his mark and make sure his windows are closed up.”

Tampa Bay’s defense fared only slightly better in Week 6 in pressuring Goff, notching 16 pressures and three sacks. Kancey led the way back in October in that game with six along with a sack. David and outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka also sacked Goff in Week 6.

But in the rematch, Detroit’s offensive tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell dominated Tampa Bay’s edge rushers. Despite a combined 79 pass rush snaps among Shaq Barrett, YaYa Diaby, Anthony Nelson, Cam Gill and Tryon-Shoyinka, this group totaled just three pressures and no sacks.

“They’re disciplined,” Barrett said of the Lions offense. “They’re going to do what they do and they are going to do it consistently throughout the game.

“It’s not like we had a lack of discipline, but they did it all four quarters. That’s what it takes to win those types of games. We had too many times where we missed a gap or something like that … or had a misstep or a misread. But we can’t afford to let that happen if we want to get to that championship level.”

The key to Bowles and the Bucs beating Goff and the Lions, whom they will face again in Detroit in 2024, is to get more effective and more consistent pressure from Tampa Bay’s outside linebackers in a four-man rush. And to play tighter coverage, especially in the middle of the field with the Bucs linebackers, safeties and nickel cornerback.

But in two games against Goff and Detroit this year, there has been a disconnect between knowing it and game-planning for it and then actually executing it.

STATEMENT 2. Dave Canales, Bucs Offense Made Major Strides vs. Lions

Back in Week 6, the Bucs offense was in its infancy. Dave Canales was calling his fifth game as a rookie play-caller. Tampa Bay scored just two field goals in a 20-6 loss to Detroit and a dominant Lions defense. The Bucs couldn’t run the ball, rushing for just 46 yards and gaining only 256 yards of total offense.

But in the rematch in the Divisional playoffs, the Bucs offense proved it was much better from the initial matchup on Oct. 15 in Tampa Bay. Despite losing, 31-23, Canales and his offense went toe-to-toe with the Lions for three quarters, as the game was tied at 10-10 at halftime and 17-17 entering the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay’s offense out-gained Detroit, 408-391 despite having 11 fewer plays. And the Bucs ground game rushed for 89 yards, which was just about double from its output back in Week 6. Not bad against the league’s No. 2 rushing defense.

More importantly, the Bucs nearly quadrupled their point total, going from just six points to putting three touchdowns on the board, courtesy of Baker Mayfield’s right arm. Mayfield connected with wide receiver Mike Evans, tight end Cade Otton and running back Rachaad White for scores.

I know some Bucs fans are fearful that Carolina hires Canales away after news broke on Monday of him getting a second interview with the Panthers. But I believe Canales will stay in Tampa Bay to help finish what he started this year – much like how Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to turn down head coaching overtures last year to stay one more year in Detroit to work with Jared Goff and take the team to new heights.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Can The Bucs Be The Next Lions In The NFL?

It’s possible – they very well could be. Detroit went from being 9-8 and just missing the playoffs last year to improving to 12-5 and winning the NFC North division for the first time in franchise history.

Tampa Bay finished 9-8 this year, but did win the lowly NFC South once again and also enjoyed a home playoff win versus Philadelphia before losing in the next round at Detroit. So in some respects, the 2023 Bucs might be further ahead than the 2022 Lions were because of the playoff experience Tampa Bay gained this year.

The Lions were super hungry from missing the postseason and that propelled them to go 12-5 this season. Will the Bucs be as hungry in 2024, or will they be complacent as three-time NFC South champions? Will the loss at Detroit fuel Tampa Bay to double-digit wins this coming season?

Continuity is king in the NFL, and the fact that Dan Campbell had both coordinators – Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn – return in 2023 was huge for the Lions to make a big jump and win three more games, plus get two playoff wins with quarterback Jared Goff leading the way. Tampa Bay can have its own continuity in 2024 with Todd Bowles continuing to run the defense, Dave Canales as a second-year play-caller and quarterback Baker Mayfield back under center.

QUESTION 2. Will The Glazers Be Tempted To Make A Late Change At Head Coach?

I doubt it … but you never know. In Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 column, I wrote that the Bucs were heading into the 2024 offseason with their head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback intact, so it seems a bit foolish for me to even speculate that the Glazers might be tempted to make a change at head coach. Todd Bowles did a remarkable job down the stretch in righting the ship from a 4-7 start to a 9-8 finish, followed by a Wild Card playoff win over the Eagles.

But it seemed Bowles was going to get fired if not for winning 9-0 in Carolina in Week 18, which meant another NFC South title and finishing with a 9-8 record, a one game improvement over the 2022 season. So is an overall 10-9 record, including the postseason, enough evidence for the Glazers to be satisfied with Bowles being responsible to take this team to the next level?

Aside from Bowles appearing to narrowly hang on to his head coaching job with the home playoff win – and his brilliant defensive game plan – against Philadelphia, he does have a 17-17 record in the regular season and a 1-2 record in the postseason. I’ve seen the Glazers fire Tony Dungy after going 2-4 in the postseason in six seasons in Tampa Bay and get fired after a 9-7 season and a third straight playoff appearances after the 2001 season.

I’ve seen the Glazers fire Jon Gruden, who delivered the franchise its first Super Bowl and win three NFC South titles in seven years, just after he became the team’s all-time winningest coach after the 2008 campaign. The Glazers had just given Gruden a massive contract extension in the 2008 offseason, too. And the Glazers waited 19 days after the end of the season to fire both Gruden and general manager Bruce Allen simultaneously.

The Glazers and general manager Jason Licht haven’t even met yet to digest the 2023 season, which ended abruptly in Detroit on Sunday. I think Bowles is safe to return given the continuity that can be achieved in 2024 as the team pursues its fourth straight division title. But the unpredictability of the Glazers from their past decisions, along with the fact that Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken and Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris haven’t been hired as head coaches elsewhere yet, is forcing me to consider all possibilities.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Should Win At Least Nine Games In 2024

As long as Tampa Bay re-signs its top five free agents – All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans, quarterback Baker Mayfield, kicker Chase McLaughlin and linebacker Lavonte David – the Bucs should be in contention for a fourth straight NFC South title next year.

The Falcons might be the closest the team to the Bucs talent-wise, but they’ll have a new coach – perhaps Bill Belichick – and new systems to learn. New Orleans will have to purge some of its roster, as that team is always in salary cap hell, and Derek Carr is not a proven winner. Carolina is in the middle of another rebuild and will be downtrodden again.

The Bucs will face three top division winners in Baltimore (13-4) and San Francisco (12-5) at home and Detroit (12-5) on the road, as well as playing the AFC West and NFC East divisions. Kansas City (11-6) is always formidable as long as Patrick Mahomes is under center and Andy Reid is on the sidelines. Denver (8-9) and Las Vegas (8-9) made serious strides at the end of the year under new head coaches, but the arrow appears to be pointing up. The L.A. Chargers seem to have a keen interest in Jim Harbaugh, but will need an overhaul after a 5-12 finish.

Dallas (12-5) and Philadelphia (11-6) may not be as good as their records this past year indicate, while New York (6-11) and Washington (4-13) could be among the worst teams in the league again. The fact that the NFC South is still there for the taking helps Tampa Bay, and a record between nine and 10 wins against a tougher schedule seems reasonable with another good, productive draft class.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Will Move On From Shaq Barrett, Get Another Starting Edge Rusher

The great thing about the final game in an NFL season for a team is that it usually shows you where a team’s warts are. As I mentioned earlier in 2-Point Conversion, the Bucs edge rushers were a big letdown versus the Lions. Tampa Bay sacked Jared Goff twice when defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and linebacker Lavonte David got to him, but outside linebacker Shaq Barrett did have a sack negated by a penalty.

That was Barrett’s first full sack over the last nine games. Barrett split a sack with David in Green Bay back in Week 16 at the end of the game, but he finished with just 4.5 sacks over the entire season. At age 31 and clearly not the player he was before his Achilles injury in 2022, Barrett will be let go this offseason. He’s played his final game in red and pewter and had a brief but illustrious career as a Buccaneer.

From leading the league in sacks with 19.5 while breaking Warren Sapp’s single-season sack record in 2019 to helping the Bucs win Super Bowl LV with his relentless pass rush, the two-time Pro Bowler has been an absolute class act over the last five seasons. He’s overcome personal tragedy this offseason and worked hard to rehab his injured ankle. But it’s time for the Bucs to move on and find another more consistent edge rusher to pair with promising outside linebacker YaYa Diaby in 2024 – either in free agency or the NFL Draft. Barrett will go down as one of Jason Licht’s best-ever free agent signings.