The Rams have to feel as if they are playing with house money. The Lions have to feel excited just to be back in the playoffs, along with a mix of anxious desperation to please a very hungry city without a home playoff win in 30 years.
On that note, home playoff teams that failed to make the prior season’s playoffs are only 13-29 (31 percent) ATS in the first playoff game.
The bet: Two-leg parlay featuring adjusted line, the Steelers +17.5 with the Rams +7.5 (-118 at DraftKings.)
THEY SAID IT
“I so badly want to win a playoff game for this city, that hasn’t had one in so long. That’s so much more important than anything personally for me.”
–Lions quarterback Jared Goff
BONUS PLAY
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m. ET Monday.
Eagles -3, total 44
The Eagles are grasping for an explanation; the Bucs have a banged-up quarterback.
Baker Mayfield is preparing to play through ankle and rib injuries for Tampa Bay against Philadelphia, which went 1-5 to finish the season.
This Monday game provides dessert after a five-course NFL weekend meal, but it’s not terribly tasty. In fact, the play here is to fade the excitement.
A trend to spotlight comes from the laboratory at Vegas Insider, which found this game’s total to have encouraged enough “under” betting action to qualify.
The past season and a half, when 56 percent or more of the money is showing up on the “under,” the bet has a mark of 45-29 ATS (60.8 percent) to the “under.”
It’s not just sharp money, either. The number of bets (at 56 percent or better), too, brought a record of 35-22 (61.4 percent) to the under.
Both “under” stats were qualifying as of Thursday.
The bet: Eagles-Buccaneers UNDER 44.
PROP CORNER
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will gladly try to shove Harris down the Bills’ throats.
If the wind kicks up in Buffalo, this will be an even better option. Grab the “over” 15.5 carries as soon as you can.
Prop play: Steelers running back Najee Harris “over” 15.5 carries. (-114 at FanDuel.)