Now Detroit has a comfortable 2.5-game lead over Minnesota, and even though both Lions/Vikings head-to-head games have yet to be played, that’s a pretty comfortable spot to be in with only seven weeks remaining in the regular season.
The Lions’ playoff odds remain astronomic. As of right now, the final playoff spot is held by the Vikings at 6-5, meaning Detroit would have to be surpassed by one of the four 4-6 teams (Packers, Rams, Falcons, Buccaneers) to lose a playoff spot, and the Lions currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over three of those teams. So Detroit would not only have to lose at least four of their last seven games, but they’d have to fall on some bad luck, too.
The Lions see the biggest movement here after not only beating the Bears, but the Vikings losing to the Broncos. Minnesota still has a 7.2% chance to win the division, per DVOA odds, but they’ll almost certainly have to sweep Detroit in their two remaining head-to-head matchups.
and their big win over the Chiefs, the Lions’ odds as the top seed in the NFC dropped significantly this week. The biggest drop happened in DVOA—where the Lions had the highest probability last week. That’s because Philly is continually climbing DVOA rankings, while the Lions are starting to regress there.
Don’t sleep on the 49ers, either. They actually have better odds to win the
The Lions see a little dip here, likely due to their uninspiring performance. But, also, other Super Bowl candidates had strong outings in Week 11. The 49ers, Ravens, and Cowboys picked up decisive wins, while the Eagles’ statement win also helped their title odds.
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