These teams have the best chance to upset division rivals in their Week 5 matchups. (For the latest odds, go to OddsChecker.)
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
With a first-year coach and rookie quarterback running the show, the Texans have gained the 10th-most yards (1,474) in the NFL. Houston’s C.J. Stroud is tied for 10th with the Lions’ Jared Goff with six touchdown passes, and his 1,212 passing yards are fourth most in the league.
At this point, it’s hard to find a statistical category in which Stroud doesn’t make the top 10. The same can’t be said for Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder. The Falcons quarterback has thrown just three touchdowns this season, and has just 744 yards passing through five games.
Only the Giants, Bengals and Patriots have scored fewer points than the Falcons, who average 15.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense has been fairly stingy, giving up just 19.8 points per game.
Atlanta’s defense has been marginally better in points allowed, but Houston has a top-five receiver in Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell is already in the top 20 for total yards. If both continue to play well, the Falcons’ defense could be in for a long day and Houston could pull off the upset.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1)
After suffering the worst defeat in head coach Bill Belichick’s career, a 38-3 loss to the Cowboys, the Patriots are home favorites against the Saints. After throwing for 150 yards and two interceptions, New England quarterback Mac Jones was pulled in favor of Bailey Zappe, who fared no better against a tough Dallas defense.
Belichick has already named Jones the starter against New England, but it’s fair to wonder how much leash he’ll get against a Saints team tied for the fourth-most interceptions (five) in the league.
New Orleans’ defense has been nothing special, but running back Alvin Kamara is back with the team after being suspended for the team’s first three games. Kamara led the team in rushing with 51 yards and saw a team-high 13 targets against Tampa Bay last week.
Those catches didn’t add up to much, but Saints receiver Chris Olave could see lots of targets against a team missing cornerback Christian Gonzalez. New England’s 2023 first-round pick is the only Patriot with an interception so far, but according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, he is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a torn labrum.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
“Everything I heard about last season, we’re doing the opposite. It might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was.”
That’s what Broncos coach Sean Payton said about his predecessor, Nathaniel Hackett, to USA Today in the offseason. Hackett is the offensive coordinator of the Jets now, and you can bet this game has been circled on New York’s calendar since Payton started pointing fingers.
All signs pointed to a Jets loss when quarterback Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury in Week 1, but Zach Wilson played well in a loss to Kansas City last week, throwing for 245 yards and two scores.
Without questionable play-calling from the Bears’ sideline and a late- game fumble by quarterback Justin Fields, Denver could easily be 0-4. The Broncos could also be without running back Javonte Williams, who left last week’s game with a hip injury, although backup Jaleel McLaughlin had 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s win against Chicago.
The Jets haven’t won since upsetting the Bills in the opener, but extra motivation and a suddenly-not-so-horrible Wilson could be just enough to upset the Broncos. If he can build upon last week’s performance, New York has an excellent chance of beating an erratic Broncos team.