Sole possession of first in the NFC North is on the line Thursday night. Here’s what to watch for in the Detroit-Green Bay game at Lambeau Field, the opening game of Week 4.
WHEN DETROIT IS ON OFFENSE
How do the Lions handle Green Bay’s pass rush? Containing explosive Packers edge-rusher Rashan Gary is a must. Per Pro Football Focus, he had a team-high five pressures in Green Bay’s 18-17 win over New Orleans in Week 3. Meanwhile, Lions tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell have only allowed four pressures all season, making this one of the biggest matchups in the game.
Detroit’s ability to pick up Green Bay’s blitz packages will be critical, too. The Packers blitzed Saints quarterbacks Derek Carr and Jameis Winston on 44.7 percent of their dropbacks and are likely to do more of the same against the Lions. Detroit QB Jared Goff is 17-of-30 for 161 yards (5.4 yards per attempt) and one interception when blitzed, as opposed to 55-of-73 for 657 yards (nine yards per attempt) with five touchdowns and one interception when not blitzed. (h/t PFF)
Can Goff exploit the hobbled Packers secondary? Cornerback Jaire Alexander (back) missed the game against New Orleans, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent if he starts. Should Goff take advantage, he’ll likely do so early. Per RotoWire, he’s fourth in the league with 503 first-half passing yards.
Lions rush offense vs. weak Packers rush defense: The deciding factor could be Green Bay’s ability to stop Detroit’s rushing attack. The Lions are averaging 111.7 rushing yards per game (11th in the NFL) while Green Bay allows 136.7 rushing yards per game (27th). In Week 3, New Orleans gained 36 of its 77 rushing yards on carries outside the tackles. Twenty of Detroit rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs’ 31 carries (for 88 yards) have come outside the tackles.
Red-zone performance: The Packers defense has bent but rarely breaks, only allowing four red-zone touchdowns in nine opportunities. The Lions are middle of the pack, with five touchdowns in nine opportunities. Green Bay’s chances of pulling off the upset significantly increase if Detroit settles for field goals or fails to convert on fourth downs inside the 20.
WHEN GREEN BAY IS ON OFFENSE
Does Jordan Love pick up where he left off? Love’s home debut went about as poorly as it could through three quarters. The Packers were in danger of being shut out against the Saints before Love led Green Bay to three fourth-quarter scoring drives, including the winning touchdown with 2:56 left. Love remains a statistical anomaly with the league’s worst completion percentage over expectation (9.9 percent worse than expected) but third in expected points added per play. As much as Love looks the part of an NFL starter, he must be more accurate for Green Bay to beat Detroit.
Injuries to key starters: The Packers survived absences from running back Aaron Jones (hamstring), wide receiver Christian Watson (hamstring) and OT David Bakhtiari (knee) in Week 3. They probably won’t, however, beat the Lions without them. Ideally, the extra time off allows Green Bay’s offensive players to contribute on Thursday, but the status of each is worth monitoring.
Strong Lions rush defense: The most underrated unit for Detroit is its rush defense, which only allows 72 yards per game, fifth in the NFL. Green Bay is only 23rd in the league in rushing offense (90.3 yards per game) and can’t afford to be one-dimensional against the Lions. As promising as Love is, he will need an assist from the running game.
Rookie safety making big plays: The Lions had two first-round draft picks in 2023, but second-rounder Brian Branch (Alabama) is arguably performing the best. He had his best game of his young career in Week 3 against Atlanta, playing a season-high 67 snaps. He only allowed five receptions on nine targets for 32 yards and was credited with eight stops by PFF.