Lions vs. Packers: Last-minute thoughts and score prediction

As the Week 4 kickoff between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers nears on Thursday night, it’s time for a few last-minute thoughts about the game, as well as a final score prediction.

Why I think the Lions will win

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• The matchup of record-setting rookie TE Sam LaPorta against the Packers, who will be minus their top coverage LB in De’Vondre Campbell, is a major advantage for the Lions.
• The return of Taylor Decker at left tackle moves Penei Sewell back to the right side. For a team that likes to run to the right, getting Sewell–perhaps the best run-blocking RT in football–into his normal spot is a huge boost. He’s also much more capable than any of his reserves in handling Packers EDGE Rashan Gary, who is off to a very good start to the season.
• Green Bay is playing without starting LT David Bakhtiari and LG Elgton Jenkins. While their depth hasn’t looked bad, it’s not the same. For an inexperienced QB like Jordan Love, offensive line uncertainty is a big problem.
• The Packers offense averages 3.06 yards per carry on first downs, 28th in the league. The Lions defense allows just 2.78 yards per first-down carry, good for second in the NFL. Take out QB runs and the Detroit defense allows 1.6 yards per first-down carry through three games. That means Green Bay’s offense is likely to play behind the sticks, which allows the Detroit pass rush to get into attack mode early and often.
• There is something of a “been there, done that” sense of accomplishment and organizational inertia from the Week 1 win in Kansas City on Thursday night. These Lions shouldn’t be fazed by the bright lights or big-game feel. Winning in Green Bay in Week 18 last year doesn’t hurt, either.
• It sure feels like the Lions coaching staff learned their collective lesson from the Week 2 loss. From Dan Campbell’s game management to Aaron Glenn’s scheming with his defensive front and coverages and Ben Johnson’s read on the opposing defense, Week 3 represented a very impressive turnaround from the coaching debacle that was the Seahawks game. I think they’re capable of maintaining that positive coaching influence, even on the road.

What worries me about Green Bay

• Green Bay’s inexperience across the offense, from Love at QB to a very youthful cast of receivers, is difficult to plan for. There aren’t a lot of data points on film to study tendencies or learn how they’ll react to different situations. There is real talent on that Packers offense, at least on paper. It’s not necessarily an advantage to be so green on offense, but it does indeed make them more difficult to prepare for, notably on a short week.
• The Lions ball security has not been great. Five giveaways in three games is not good enough. Detroit lost to Seattle directly because of two big negative plays: David Montgomery’s fumble to start the second half and Jared Goff’s pick-6 on a miscue with Jahmyr Gibbs. Green Bay only averages one takeaway per game, but they have some defensive players who can make things happen. As Week 2 showed, it might only take one or two to give a game away.

Final prediction

It’s never easy to go into Green Bay and expect to win if you’re any team, let alone one with the Lions’ history. But the Lions are favored, and I see more paths to victory for Dan Campbell’s team than I do the Packers at home.

Watch the first drive of the second half. If the Lions have a lead of seven or more after that drive, they’re cruising to a 34-17 win. If they’re within a field goal or behind, the Lions will execute the comeback and win 24-21.