Predicting the 2023 NFL season results for each division

1. Buffalo Bills 10-7X

2. New England Patriots 10-7*

3. New York Jets 9-8

4. Miami Dolphins 8-9

The AFC East is a tough one because of the variability of Aaron Rodgers with the Jets. New York will be entertaining, but I don’t know just how high they can fly. Buffalo and Miami are both good enough to believe in but not loaded enough to look past some of the negatives. I trust in Josh Allen and the Bills slightly more than Tua and the Dolphins. New England is under the radar with a defense that could be very good, but they have what looks like the worst passing offense in the division.

Along with the AFC North, this is the only division where I believe every team can come in first.

1. Bengals 11-6X

2. Browns 10-7*

3. Steelers 10-7

4. Ravens 8-9

Such a tough division to predict. I can make a strong argument for every team to finish in either first or last and anywhere in between. The intradivision games are going to be hypercritical in determining the final order.

Cincinnati has the best MVP candidate in Joe Burrow and a good defense. The Browns have Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Myles Garrett and the best offensive weapons Deshaun Watson has ever played with. The Steelers offer up T.J. Watt and a promising young pitch-and-catch combo with Kenny Pickett and George Pickens. Baltimore might be the best overall team, yet they don’t have as many critical difference-makers in key spots beyond Lamar Jackson as the other teams.

The only thing I have confidence in here is that the league’s best last-place team will come from the AFC North.

1. Chiefs 12-5X

2. Chargers 11-6*

3. Broncos 6-11

4. Raiders 6-11

Hard to pick against the defending world champs, though this might be the thinnest roster they’ve had in their recent run. The Chargers will be among the NFL’s top offenses and a tough team to beat. Denver is difficult to diagnose with Russell Wilson’s variability and a new coach and system. The Raiders have enough front-line talent to outplay this prediction but not enough to trust in a tough division.

1. Jaguars 14-3X

2. Titans 7-10

3. Texans 6-11

4. Colts 4-13

The Jaguars are the easiest division winner to forecast thanks to a deep and talented roster on both sides of the ball. Tennessee has enough firepower to be dangerous if they get good QB play and can force some takeaways on defense. The Texans will be better under Demeco Ryans, while the Colts have fallen hard from being a perennial playoff-caliber team.

1. Eagles 11-6X

2. Cowboys 10-7*

3. Commanders 9-8*

4. Giants 7-10

Philadelphia will be very difficult to unseat, but the other three teams all have some ability to stake claim to second place and a playoff berth. The Eagles offensive line keeps them ahead. Dallas has playmakers on both sides of the ball and the highest floor of the others. Washington is dangerous if they stay healthy and get adequate QB play from Sam Howell, which is certainly doable but far from given. The Giants can rise up if the passing game, both offensively and defensively, can step up.

1. Falcons 9-8X

2. Saints 6-11

3. Panthers 6-11

4. Buccaneers 4-13

The young Falcons have energy and skill-position talent, plus what looks like an improved defense. New Orleans is a viable contender and could run away with the division if they gel quickly around Derek Carr. Carolina and Tampa Bay are ships passing in opposite directions in the night, with the Panthers sailing towards eventual light and the Bucs storming into post-Brady darkness.

1. Seahawks 12-5X

2. 49ers 11-6*

3. Rams 4-13

4. Cardinals 2-15

Seattle’s offense looks lethal in all phases, and the defense should make some big plays of its own. The 49ers are relying on a lot of oft-injured players in key spots and that’s a little troubling, but they’re strong enough to remain a playoff power too.

The Rams are paying the unfortunate price for the successful all-in Super Bowl season of 2021, while the Cardinals have a litany of issues that makes them the early favorite for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

Had to save the best for last…

1. Lions 10-7X

2. Packers 8-9

3. Vikings 8-9

4. Bears 5-12

Detroit finally wins an NFC North title thanks to defensive upgrades and continued steady play from Jared Goff. Green Bay is very young in so many spots–talented but unproven on offense. The Vikings lost a cadre of key players from last year’s playoff team and didn’t replace them with commensurate talent. Chicago will be a lot better but it might not translate into the win column yet.

AFC Championship: Kansas City over Jacksonville

NFC Championship: Seattle over Dallas

Super Bowl: The Seahawks end the Chiefs reign as champs