Analysis by Neil Greenberg, of the Washington Post
NFL coaches, perhaps more than their peers in any other North American pro sport, are under a constant microscope. Every decision they make and sentence they utter gets analyzed, and their results and merits are scrutinized year-round. Too many losses, and coaches will find themselves on the “hot seat,” where job security can be as unpredictable as a last-minute heave into the end zone
But how accurately can we identify which coaches should be on the hottest seats as the 2023 season gets underway? For that, historical data can offer at least one version of a guide, as Brian Burke displayed for ESPN in 2017. We know plenty of information about former NFL head coaches at the time of their firing, which can inform our expectations. What were their records with their teams, and how successful were they in the postseason, if they made it that far? How long had they gone since their last playoff appearance, and since their last playoff win? Team owners and front offices have given coaches with Super Bowl résumés more leeway, which can also be factored in.
This particular model analyzes all those factors for coaches who have been fired since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams. Some of the factors, like regular season and playoff success in 2023, are estimated using betting markets. Others are simply based on past results.
Cumulative win rate for the coach with the franchise: This one is obvious: A higher overall win rate can generally keep seats nice and cool.
Change in wins from 2022 to 2023: Using win totals set by Vegas oddsmakers, this element attempts to capture the estimated improvement or decline in a team’s performance this coming season. A notable drop in wins from one season to the next can significantly impact a coach’s job security.
Playoff contention odds: This is another predictive element, related to but different from the predicted win total. Making the playoffs can positively influence a coach’s job security, while not qualifying for the postseason is often the first line of criticism leveled against coaches.
Years since last playoff appearance: In most cases, the longer it has been since a team last reached the postseason, the more scrutiny its coach will face.
Years since last playoff win: Achieving playoff success is the ultimate goal, and accounting for the span since a team’s last playoff victory adds an extra layer to the evaluation.
Super Bowl wins and appearances: Frequent trips to the NFL’s pinnacle can protect a coach’s job, while a lack of Super Bowl success can be held against even accomplished coaches when a franchise seeks championship-level performance.
Let’s look at Mike Nolan’s tenure with the San Francisco 49ers as an example of how our Coach Hot Seat Index functions. Nolan was hired in 2005; the club went 16-32 over his first three seasons, winning two fewer games in 2007 than it had in 2006, a downward arc that makes the CHSI quiver. The 49ers also missed the playoffs all three seasons. Based on those results, the model gave Nolan a 47 percent chance of being fired by the end of 2007. Nolan survived, but in 2008 he started 2-5, at which point the model would have given him a 62 percent chance of losing his job. San Francisco indeed fired him after Week 7.
The Coach Hot Seat Indicator simply looks at these factors and then assesses the likelihood a coach with a similar résumé would be fired. It doesn’t take into account external factors, such as front office changes, owner sentiment, tradition or the weight of local reputation. That’s why Dallas Cowboys Coach Mike McCarthy has a low chance of being fired (two percent), despite some speculation that team owner Jerry Jones would consider a change if the team doesn’t advance past the first round of the playoffs. In three seasons with Dallas, McCarthy has a 30-20 record and two playoff appearances, including a playoff win last season. According to historical data, that would not make him a strong candidate to lose his job after this fourth season.
Others can adjust the temperature of a coach’s hot seat up or down based on particular circumstances. Nevertheless, the CHSI identifies coaches who – based on expectations for this season, recent results and the historical treatment of NFL coaches – should expect to feel their seat warming up as the weather gets colder.
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Rivera appears to be in a sticky situation as the Commanders move into a new era. His record with the franchise is subpar, and like past head coaches in Washington, he has moved through a succession of underwhelming quarterback acquisitions, leading to a record of 22-27-1. This year, Rivera will entrust the starting role to Sam Howell, a fifth-round pick in 2022, with experienced journeyman Jacoby Brissett waiting in the wings. Whoever is under center will have to navigate playing behind an offensive line ranked 27th by Pro Football Focus heading into the season. Not exactly a blueprint for the franchise to win its first playoff game since the 2005 season. And if the Commanders do thrive offensively, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy figures to get much of the credit.
Plus, there is a new ownership group in place that presumably will want to put its own stamp on the franchise unless a terrific season unfolds in 2023. How terrific? History says a head coach who stops a playoff win drought and improves his regular season record by two wins – which would mean a 10-7 finish for Washington – would reduce his chance of being fired to less than 10 percent. Oddsmakers, though, give the Commanders the lowest odds of making the playoffs of any team in the NFC East.
Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
A 6-11 record in McDaniels’s debut season didn’t inspire confidence, especially after the team had made the playoffs the season before his arrival. Despite the Raiders’ attempts to overhaul the roster and upgrade the quarterback position with Jimmy Garoppolo, discontent from three-time all-pro receiver Davante Adams and anticipated on-field struggles loom large. (Oddsmakers have set their win total at just 6.5.) Pro Football Focus also ranked the squad 21st overall heading into the season, with defense listed as Las Vegas’ biggest weakness in the tough AFC West.
If the Raiders fail to show improvement, McDaniels – whose first head coaching job ended after two seasons – could be at risk again.
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
Eberflus took on the Bears job last season with an understanding of the challenging situation, yet the former Colts defensive coordinator saw his team surrender 105 more points than expected in 2022 after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play against them. That was the worst mark in the league. Despite offseason efforts to bolster the unit, Pro Football Focus lists Chicago’s run defense as its biggest weakness.
Eberflus’s lack of a track record as a head coach and his team’s defensive struggles might put his position in jeopardy if his revamped roster fails to deliver.
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A lifetime record of 34-50 – including an underwhelming 8-9 mark during Tom Brady’s last season in the NFL – is concerning. Despite a talented roster, the Bucs’ performance last season did not match expectations. With the transition to Baker Mayfield at quarterback, the pressure on Bowles should be even greater. Tampa Bay already declined from 13 to eight wins in one season under Bowles; a further slump could prompt a call for change.
Robert Saleh, New York Jets
Saleh’s two-year tenure with the Jets has produced a lackluster 11-23 record. The unsuccessful experiment with young quarterback Zach Wilson (selected with the No. 2 pick in 2021) has added to the scrutiny. Picking up four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers should help – and will certainly increase the attention on Gang Green – but missing the playoffs for a third straight season could lead to Saleh’s firing, especially if New York fails to approach the lofty expectations set by fans, media and the franchise.