It’s extension season in the NFL, the time of year where teams reward some of their most important veterans with new contracts, locking them up long-term. Among the players we’ve seen ink new, multi-year pacts in recent weeks are Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, Dallas cornerback Trevon Diggs, Giants offensive tackle Andrew Thomas, Bengals linebacker Logan Thomas and Saints defensive end Cam Jordan.
In terms of players entering the final year of their current deals, the Detroit Lions have one who could be in the mix for an extension: Guard Jonah Jackson.
A third-round pick in the 2020 draft, Jackson has been a starter since Day One with the franchise, starting 45 of a possible 50 regular-season games. He’s been both durable and reliable, steadily improving as a run blocker while not allowing a single sack in 13 games last season. He even earned Pro Bowl recognition in 2021, despite not finishing in the top-10 of fan balloting. That means the league’s coaches and players were the driving force behind the selection.
Jackson has predictably downplayed any contract talks this offseason, while general manager Brad Holmes offered minimal insight when asked about the status of an extension during a recent interview with 97.1 FM.
“We want to retain good players,” Holmes said. “Now, we know there’s a business side of it, but it’s easy to identify who those core players are, who those guys are really going to be staples in our franchise. Those discussions, we’ve talked about, we’re preparing for, but yeah, guys like a Jonah Jackson, we’ve had discussions about that.”
Arguably the biggest thing working against Jackson is how much the Lions already have tied up in their offensive line. Taylor Decker has two years remaining on his current deal with cap hits north of $19 million both this season and next, while Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow still has four years, at an average of nearly $15 million per season. Plus, the Lions are eventually going to have to pay Penei Sewell, a deal that could be a market-setting contract when it gets done, averaging $25 million or more per season.
But, when it comes to the NFL’s salary cap, where there’s a will, there’s a way. So let’s evaluate what a Jackson extension might look like.
First, let’s acknowledge the jaw-dropping contract the Atlanta Falcons awarded guard Chris Lindstrom this offseason; a five-year, $102.5 million extension. That’s the gold standard for the player who was far and away the best player at the position in 2022, at least according to analytics site Pro Football Focus.
Respectfully, Jackson’s resume won’t merit anything close to that kind of payday. Lindstrom allowed fewer than half the pass-rush pressures in more snaps, plus he’s widely viewed as the best interior run blocker in the business. Jackson, on the other hand, ranked as PFF’s 23rd-best guard, consistent with his 22nd ranking the previous year, when he was named to the Pro Bowl.
Now, to be clear, PFF is far from the end-all, be-all of this discussion, but it’s a respectable barometer. It confirms what we already know — Jackson is good, very good in fact, but not elite. That said, at 26 years old, and with a track record for self-improvement, his best football is likely ahead of him. Plus, there’s the natural inflation attached to an ever-increasing cap, so his contract should supersede any perceived positional ranking.
Based on comparable players, Jackson likely will fall in the range of Ben Powers. The same age with one more year of experience, Powers has been slightly less durable, and not as effective of a run blocker, but a better pass protector. Overall, there’s a valuation overlap.
Powers didn’t receive an extension from the Ravens, the club that drafted him, instead making it to free agency, where he scored a four-year, $51.5 million contract with $28.5 million in guarantees from the Broncos this offseason. Another player in that range is Shaq Mason, who agreed to a three-year, $36 million extension with the Texans this offseason.
Barring an unforeseen injury, Jackson almost certainly will join the group of guards with a contract averaging more than $10 million per season. And, as noted, $12 million seems like a reasonable range based on age, durability and production.
NFL contracts are often structured in a way that they’re backloaded. So a four-year, $50 million extension likely would include a cap hit closer to $5 million in 2024. And if the Lions did get a deal done this offseason, they can attach a prorated portion of any signing bonus to this year’s cap hit (currently at $3.25 million for Jackson), softening future cap obligations.
Expanding on the details of that hypothetical four-year contract, let’s say it includes a $15 million signing bonus, slightly more than Powers’ 13 million. That means $3 million would count against the cap this year. With nearly $20 million in space remaining for 2023, according to NFLPA records, the Lions are in position to easily absorb that. Then, in 2024, they can keep Jackson’s base salary manageable, between $1-3 million, leaving his cap hit between $4-6 million (base salary plus prorated portion of the signing bonus), giving the franchise continued financial flexibility.
The cap hits for the final three years would be approximately $14 million per season in this scenario, with any remaining guarantees being paid out in 2025. That standard structure would give the team an out on the deal after that season if it wasn’t working out, for whatever reason.
Those are obviously significant numbers, which is why an extension for Jackson remains uncertain. But if the Lions want to continue to invest in their line, which they view as the engine of an offense that finished top-five in scoring last season, this is what it might look like.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers