Allen Park — As the NFL continues to devalue the position, it’s been five years since a team has selected a running back in the first 20 picks of the draft. Following the New York Giants taking Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 choice in 2018, there have been just four running backs who have come off the board in the first round, and none earlier than the 24th pick.
And while we might not see a team invest a top-five asset in the position any time soon, Texas running back Bijan Robinson is widely viewed as the best prospect since Barkley, and a good bet to be selected in the first half of the first round later this week.
The Detroit Lions hold two picks in Thursday’s opening round, No. 6 and No. 18.
At six, it’s probably too early, for the positional value reasons stated above. For as much as a running back can successfully impact an offense in a given season, football has evolved into a more passing-heavy game the past two decades. Additionally, the position experiences a greater diminishing rate of return than most others, with mounting durability concerns and declining production by the time a player is in line for a second contract, entering the fifth year of their career.
Many analysts would argue, based on those same facts, Robinson would still be a poor value at No. 18. But Lions GM Brad Holmes has seen how a premium talent in the backfield can elevate a roster. While working as the college scouting director of the Rams, the team snagged Todd Gurley with the No. 10 pick in 2015.
And while the aforementioned production decline caught up to Gurley as it so often does with backs, he was stellar through his initial deal with the Rams, rushing for 5,404 yards and 58 touchdowns in five seasons, posting MVP-caliber numbers in 2017 and 2018, when the Rams finished No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring.
That successful stretch is lost on Holmes, who constantly hammers home that prospects must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, despite any individual or overarching narratives that exist.
“Yeah, I just kind of look at it as they’re all football players,” Holmes said. “They’re all football players and if they can help you, they can help you. I understand the narrative about (running backs), but if you think that player is that good, then if he’s out there producing for you, I don’t think anybody’s going to look back and say in 2016 or ’17 or ’18, ‘Wow, Todd (Gurley), he really picked him at 10.’ No, he was just a really good running back and he was one of the top prospects in the draft. We didn’t really bat an eye about it.”
That would suggest, yes, Robinson would be in play for the Lions at No. 18, if he’s still on the board. Of course, that would be weighed against the grades and potential impact of other players also available at that spot. Presumably, the Lions would also need to consider how the player fits after signing veteran David Montgomery to a lucrative three-year, $18 million contract this offseason.
Physical thresholds matter
When evaluating college prospects, there are three primary buckets general managers must weigh: College production, intangibles and physical traits.
The Lions put a heavy emphasis on the first two. They want players who have proven it on the field, but also have the intrinsic drive to constantly improve, one of the key component of high football character.
A recent example, at least from the latter rounds of the draft, would be linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez. He wasn’t the biggest or fastest player, but his production at Oklahoma State and his passion for the game were undeniable, which helped last year’s sixth-round pick quickly transition and produce as a rookie.
Physical traits without production is best described as potential or upside. It’s what we point to with someone like Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, who might be the most athletic quarterback prospect of all-time, possessing a prototypical build, but having completed just 54.7% of his passes in college. Or there’s Pitt defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, who is both athletic and productive, but has arms far shorter than the threshold teams desire at the position.
And while Holmes wasn’t talking about a specific prospect or trait, he said he sometimes needs to be reminded there are physical shortcomings difficult to overcome and that shouldn’t be ignored.
“The physical traits — they’re higher at some positions, they’re more important at some positions,” Holmes said. “At other positions, it’s a little bit you can get by where the physical traits might not be as good, but what I call kind of the central nervous system wiring is a little bit higher.
“There’s a balance, but it is the NFL,” Holmes continued. “You do have to have a balance of athleticism, a baseline of athleticism. Some positions you’ve got to have a baseline of length. There are some positions where you have to have a baseline there of speed, explosiveness. That’s not overlooked at all. My staff, they do a great job of bringing that up to me a lot because I can tend to go toward, ‘Man, as long as he’s playing football.’ But you’ve got to be aware, it is the NFL. You’ve got to make sure that these guys are able to match up physically.”
Part-time villain
At the scouting combine, Holmes went viral among the fan base for his wardrobe selection, a white Lions hoodie with the world “Villain” stenciled across the front in black, block letters.
“In the past, we kind of kept that lock key,” Holmes said. “… (Now) the whole world knows about it. The whole world doesn’t know what it truly means. In terms of the merch, in terms of the availability of it, I can’t really speak to that. I do like the fire that it started. It’s been pretty cool. I didn’t think it was going to happen. That wasn’t my intention, but it’s been pretty cool to see the reaction that everybody has kind of bought into the villain theme.”
Holmes was wearing another hoodie with a message on Thursday, “Support women and girls in sports.” It coincides with team’s ongoing efforts to recognize the impact of females within the organization, headed by owner Sheila Hamp.
Last month, during Women’s History Month, the Lions launched a women’s employee resource group called Women of the Lions. It included a panel discussion with five female employees from various departments: co-director of player engagement Jessica Gray, senior director of football operations Gina Newell, production manager Jessica Shlemon, senior vice president and general counsel Maggy Carlyle and team reporter Dannie Rogers.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers