You watch these NFL playoffs and, for the first time in a long time, you think: Why can’t this be the Detroit Lions next year?
Why can’t it be the Lions in the NFC championship game?
Why can’t it be in the Lions, getting ready for the Super Bowl?
And I have come to a conclusion: It absolutely could be the Lions. It’s possible. The window is open to win now, and if you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. One crazy roughing-the-QB penalty can change everything.
So let’s start this discussion with that premise.
The immediate goal is to get to the playoffs in 2023, and the Lions are actually set up to do that. That should be the goal. To win the NFC North.
But this is just as important: The long-term goal is to build an organization that can be sustained over time.
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So, what should the Lions do this offseason?
How should they approach free agency and the draft? How should they build their team going forward?
It all starts with the big quarterback decision.
To draft a QB or not?
Before 2022, I thought the Lions should draft a quarterback in 2023. There was no doubt in my mind. I viewed Jared Goff as a bridge quarterback. Things seemed to fall into place perfectly, as the Los Angeles Rams fell apart.
But now, that Rams pick hangs in no-man’s land at No. 6, making things complicated.
Certainly, Alabama’s Bryce Young will be taken before the Lions use the Rams’ pick, so scratch him off the list. That leaves Kentucky’s Will Levis or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. It seems likely that at least one of them will probably be gone, too.
So will the Lions take the third best QB at No.6?
Could they roll the dice, wait and hope to take Florida’s Anthony Richardson at No. 18?
Possible.
But it’s scary to base the future on so many unknowns.
Because it’s such a crap shoot drafting QBs.
“I think it’s easier to get worse at quarterback than to get better at quarterback — in this League,” Lions general manager Brad Holmes said at his season-ending news conference in January.
He’s right.
On the flip side of the issue, it’s also an incredible advantage for an entire organization to have a young quarterback on a rookie deal. Ideally, you would want the Lions to build up a team, get a young quarterback and use the money you’re saving on his rookie deal to pay your roster as it ages and ride that young quarterback to Super Bowl glory.
That’s far trickier said than done.
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It’s also a huge advantage to take that rookie quarterback in the first round because it gives you an extra year — a fifth-year option that, if the QB is any good, is almost a guarantee the team will take.
Lions in a great position
Then, Goff started to change my mind. He went out and played fantastic, as the Lions won eight of their last 10. In short, he looked like the long-term answer.
“I never really deemed him as a bridge, I think everybody else did,” Holmes said.
Goff is under contract for the next two seasons. He has a $30.975 million cap hit in 2023, 11th highest in the NFL according to Spotrac. That’s far below Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott or Deshaun Watson — all of whom have cap hits north of $45 million.
But the Goff cap hit is well above young quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts — all of whom are on rookie deals and have cap hits at $11.5 million or lower. That allows their teams have another $20 million to $35 million to build up their rosters, increasing their chances at sustaining success.
So, there’s the rub. For the Lions to be sustained over the long haul, it’s a huge advantage to have a quarterback on a rookie deal when building a roster. But finding that quarterback is like trying to find a needle in the haystack.
The NFL is littered with failed rookie quarterbacks.
Now, here is the other complicating factor: I firmly believe that Goff is going to have a great season in 2023. Ben Johnson will be back running the offense, Jameson Williams will have another year under his belt to get healthy and know the plays, and that offense should be humming.
Goff’s value is only going to go up.
So should the Lions extend Goff before that happens?
They have another option: the franchise tag.
The NFL informed teams of the franchise tag numbers on Monday and it is $32 million for quarterbacks.
Granted, that’s only going to go up. Two years from now, the Lions could franchise Goff at a salary that is in the neighborhood to what he is making now.
So in essence, they could have him locked in for three years.
So where does that put the Lions?
Actually, in a pretty fantastic situation.
Holmes has created a scenario that offers maximum flexibility, especially right now. He can go into this draft and evaluate the heck out of the quarterbacks. Because this is the window to take one high. The optimist in me doubts they will have this high of a draft pick again in the near future — even if the 2024 QB draft class looks a heck of a lot better.
If Holmes falls in love with a QB this year — I’m saying, love-love, like his heart is aching and going all aflutter, and he can’t stop thinking about him — go for it. Take him. Even if Holmes has to trade picks to move up.
It would actually be the best-case scenario, with a quarterback to win now and possible future starting QB on a rookie deal. But if Holmes takes this route, there is no room for error. He can’t be wrong. Because if he burns a high draft pick — or more — he will limit his ability to add a potential stud on defense, slowing both short-term and long-term growth. But if he gets a long term QB on the cheap, it would be worth it.
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If the Lions waive Goff this offseason, it would cost $10 million against their salary cap in 2023. But that number goes down to $5 million in 2024.
A rookie QB could have a year (at least) to learn under Goff. Or the Lions could start saving money on that position starting this year and beyond. Which is going to be important, since you’d assume Holmes wants to keep that offensive line together and re-sign folks like Amon-Ra St. Brown.
A perfect plan?
But if they don’t take a quarterback high in this draft, the options start to get limited.
I doubt they will have a top-15 pick in 2024 — as dangerous as that assumption may sound — and they certainly won’t have this much draft capital to maneuver.
So if they don’t get one this year, Goff becomes your guy. Which is not a horrible thing. But it’s only a three-year window for certain.
“I think what Jared has done this year, he — captain of the ship of a top-three offense and I want to say he was top-10 statistically in most of the passing categories,” Holmes said. “But I do think that Jared has proven everybody that he is the starting quarterback for us.”
One tiny clarification: Having said all of that, they could still draft a quarterback in later rounds. And that seems like the smart thing to do. Take a flyer on a guy. But there is absolutely no certainty there. Just risk.
“We’re never going to turn down a good football player,” Holmes said. “So, if there’s a football player we really love, I mean we’re going to make sure every stone is unturned.”
Yes, turn over rocks. Turn over boulders.
Ideally, they find the next great franchise QB high in this draft. That would set up this franchise for long-term success. But if they don’t?
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Start those extension talks.
Before Goff has another great year and his price skyrockets.
Contact Jeff Seidel: jseidel@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @seideljeff.
To read his recent columns, go to freep.com/sports/jeff-seidel.