Allen Park — Here are four observations after having a couple of nights to ponder the Detroit Lions’ 37-23 loss to the Carolina Panthers.
First down
The Lions’ recent success, a stretch of six wins in seven games, brought a surge of optimism and increased expectations locally. Everywhere you went around town, people could be heard talking about the team, and fans weren’t shying away from bold predictions. For many, a playoff berth had gone from outlandish to expected, with plenty guilty of believing a January run was within reach.
Instead, the Lions reminded us all that a rebuild is not a linear process. After the game, coach Dan Campbell talked about his team not being physically, mentally or emotionally ready for the challenge.
It seems impossible to fathom the moment was lost on the roster, especially after Campbell talked about his players being too tight, fearing failure, a week earlier. Maybe there was an over-correction there, because in this one, when the Panthers punched them in the mouth right after the opening bell, the Lions never recovered.
Not using it as an excuse, Campbell also noted the age and experience of his roster isn’t lost on him, just like it shouldn’t be lost on us. These experiences of being in a playoff race, and the increased intensity that comes with the moments, are novel for most of these Lions. As much as everyone wants to shorten the learning curve, there’s no substitute for experience.
Much like the team’s 1-6 start provided lessons and growth opportunities, this too was one of those moments. And just as the young roster showed resiliency and an ability to learn from those early shortcomings, they must do so here, as well.
Of course, no one, particularly in Detroit, where meaningful success has been absent for decades, wants to hear anything relating to patience. Trust me, I both hear and understand you. But even if this team wins eight or nine games and falls short of the postseason, it’s worth noting the year will have been a massive step in the right direction.
The Lions already have more than doubled their win total from the first year of the rebuild, and all the experience being banked by this young roster is invaluable going forward. It’s completely reasonable to say the bar for 2023 is a division title.
Second down
Ever since he came down with an illness earlier this month, cornerback Jeff Okudah hasn’t looked like the same player.
He returned to practice at the end of the week after contracting the illness and played through weakness and fatigue in the team’s victory over Minnesota, committing two critical penalties on an early touchdown drive.
Last week, against the Jets, he was back to a full workload, but expressed feeling totally exhausted after the win. Some of that had to go with how the game played out, with Okudah seeing a career-high 14 targets in coverage. He gave up six catches for 125 yards on those throws, both season-highs.
And against the Panthers, Okudah was sloppy, missing two tackles and giving up a 47-yard completion, his fourth 40-plus play surrendered this season and second in as many weeks. That landed him on the bench for much of the second half.
The missed tackles might be the biggest barometer of Okudah’s recent struggles. While inconsistencies in coverage have lingered throughout his first year back from a torn Achilles, he’s been as reliable as any cornerback in the league when defending the run. Through his first 11 games this season, he had been assessed just two whiffs. In the three games post-illness, he’s missed at least one tackle in each contest.
The Lions face an interesting decision with Okudah’s fifth-year option this offseason. If exercised, the team will be on the hook for an estimated, fully guaranteed $11.4 million salary in 2024. That would be the sixth-highest cap hit for a cornerback this season.
Now, that decision should be made on the full body of Okudah’s work, and not the tiny sample of December, where an exterior factor seems to be at play. Still, at the very least, it’s a reminder the future of the cornerback position is relatively unsettled in Detroit and could be an area the team looks to address early in the upcoming draft.
Third down
A few weeks back, in this space, we raised concerns about Detroit’s struggling ground game. While it wasn’t holding the team back from stringing together some wins, it felt like a matter of time before the inability to run the ball would cause problems. That showed up in Carolina, particularly on third down, where the offense finished 4-of-12.
Even before the Panthers’ swelling lead forced the Lions to abandon the run in the second half, they weren’t having any success on the ground. In the first quarter, the Lions gained eight yards on eight carries. At the half, it was 21 yards on 12 carries with the long of eight yards on an end-around to receiver Kalif Raymond.
That’s staggering inefficiency for a team that was so effective to start the season. Through seven games, the Lions were averaging 5.0 yards per carry. In the eight since, that’s dropped to 3.6 yards per rush, a figure that’s propped up a bit by C.J. Moore’s 42-yard gain on a fake punt.
Center Frank Ragnow made a passionate case that he wasn’t the only Lions offensive lineman who belonged in the Pro Bowl, but this is the clear counter to the argument. Obviously, it’s not fair to completely pin the woes on the offensive line, but contrasted against the execution of the Panthers’ blocking on Saturday, the Lions’ front hasn’t been on that level.
It’s been a strange season, where the Lions have proven it can be tough to win when you’re running the ball well, and you can succeed when you’re running the ball poorly, but the law of averages eventually catch up. And when the weather starts having a greater impact down the stretch, an effective ground game is key, by extending drives with short-yardage conversions, and setting up third-and-manageable with early-down success.
If the Lions can beat the Bears at home this Sunday, being able to run the ball efficiently will come back into focus for the finale in frigid Green Bay. In the teams’ previous meeting this season, the Lions mustered just 3.8 yards per carry on 31 attempts.
Fourth down
As if the Lions didn’t do enough to dampen the holiday mood with their Saturday performance, the Los Angeles Rams made sure to scoop a few more lumps of coal into fans’ stockings on Christmas Day.
The Rams won for the second time in three weeks, destroying the Denver Broncos, 51-14. A loss would have made the first-round pick the Lions are set to inherit from the Rams a top-three selection. Instead, it’s now No. 7 in the order with two games to go.
Barring an aggressive trade in April, that likely makes the two best defensive prospects, Alabama’s Will Anderson and Georgia Jalen Carter, out of reach for a Lions team still desperate for an influx of defensive talent.
But if you squint, there’s a silver lining. In two weeks, the Rams play the Seahawks. And with the Lions’ fleeting playoff hopes hinging on getting some help, a Rams’ victory here is a potential piece of that puzzle. That seemed unlikely a few weeks ago, but with the way they’re currently playing, it’s far more realistic.
Also, while missing out on Anderson and Carter would sting, general manager Brad Holmes has shown enough in his first drafts to breed confidence he’ll find good fits, regardless of where the Lions end up selecting with their two picks in the first round.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers