Four Downs: Lions in playoff race, Williams’ trajectory and Johnson’s head-coaching viability

First down

I’ll readily admit my hesitation to discuss the playoff race in recent weeks, but following Sunday’s beatdown, which gave the Lions their fourth win in the past five games, it’s time to explore whether any postseason scenarios are realistic.

Detroit has five games remaining, against an interesting mix of opponents. That starts next week with a home game against the division-leading Minnesota Vikings, who can clinch the NFC North crown with a victory. That’s followed by a pair of road games against the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, a return home to battle the Chicago Bears before a frosty, early-January finale at Lambeau Field.

To be clear, the Lions won’t sniff the playoffs without winning four of those five games, and, honestly, there’s a good chance they’ll need to run the table. Is that possible? Sure, especially if they play the way they did against Jacksonville, but without question, it’s a tall task.

It’s also not unprecedented for the franchise. The last time the Lions won six or more games in a row in a season was 1995, when they closed the year with seven straight victories to get into the postseason.

Since we’re playing out the hypothetical, here’s how things are stacking up:

At 5-7, the Lions are currently ninth in the NFC standings, two games back of the 7-5 Seahawks for the final playoff spot. And not only does Seattle hold that lead with five games to go, but it also has the head-to-head tiebreaker after a 48-45 victory at Ford Field early in the year.

The other teams the Lions are chasing for the final spot are the New York Giants (7-4-1) and the San Francisco 49ers (8-4). It’s a pretty significant gulf to overcome, but there’s at least a sliver of hope if Detroit can take care of business on its end.

Seattle will probably be tough to catch. With matchups remaining against Carolina and the broken Los Angeles Rams, victories in those two contests will probably be enough to fend off Detroit. The better bet might be the Giants, where the Lions hold a tiebreaker. New York has a brutal closing stretch, including a pair of games against the conference-leading Eagles, as well as road tilts against Minnesota and the red-hot Washington Commanders (another team the Lions are chasing in the standings).

Still, even if the Giants lose three of their final five, they’d finish 9-7-1. That would still require the Lions to run the table to sneak in the back door.

Finally, let’s at least consider the 49ers. Winners of five straight, they seem like a safe bet to cruise across the finish line, but that’s not a given after losing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a season-ending foot injury. Rookie Brock Purdy played well, taking over against Miami on Sunday, but there’s no assurance of consistency. With remaining games against always-dangerous Tampa Bay, Washington and Seattle, as well as a trip to Vegas to play the Raiders, winners of three straight, there are plenty of opportunities to stumble down the stretch.

Since they don’t play head-to-head, the tiebreaker with the 49ers will be divisional record. That’s another hurdle, since they’re currently 4-0 in NFC West games, compared to the Lions’ 2-1 mark in the NFC North. They also hold a two-game lead in the next tiebreaker, conference record.

All this to confirm, yeah, it remains a long shot. If we’re putting percentages on it, probably somewhere between 5 to 10%. But, hey, that’s better than zero, which is where things have stood in recent years this deep into the season. So, enjoy the ride while you can, because a loss to Minnesota next week is likely enough to derail it.

Second down

A big story coming out of Sunday’s game, regardless of his limited usage, was the debut of rookie receiver Jameson Williams. Not initially expected to suit up against Jacksonville, Williams saw eight snaps, including the final two as part of Detroit’s victory formation. He was also supposed to get some work as a punt-gunner, but the team never had to punt.

Williams’ workload follows a pattern the Lions have employed with players returning from long-term injuries, and coach Dan Campbell referenced the midseason return of cornerback Jerry Jacobs when answering a question about Williams’ playing time Sunday.

Both Jacobs and Williams were coming back from torn ACLs. Jacobs, similarly, was on the field for eight snaps in his debut, and played nine the following week, before jumping to 52 in his third game back. And it wasn’t until the Jacksonville matchup, his seventh since returning to action, that the second-year cornerback saw 100% of the team’s defensive snaps.

So, if you’re looking for a progression, the Lions will probably keep Williams on a short leash next week before steadily building up the workload.

Of course, there are additional factors at play. First, Jacobs had a year of experience under his belt. Additionally, he was needed in the lineup due to injuries and other players underperforming. Williams’ path to more snaps is a bit more crowded, with DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds both back to full strength and playing a combined 124 snaps against Jacksonville.

Barring an injury to one of the starters, the Lions won’t need to lean on Williams the same way they needed Jacobs. So, even after the team is ready to remove the training wheels, the ceiling in 2022 might be closer to 20 snaps than 50.

I know that’s some unwanted rain when everyone is ready for the parade, but it shouldn’t do anything to damper lofty expectations for the speedy receiver starting next season.

Third down

It’s probably time to consider the chances of losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to a head-coaching opportunity are real.

With the team’s second 40-point performance of the season, the Lions rank sixth in the NFL in scoring, despite having to overcome major injury issues throughout the year. And when the unit is at full strength, or close to it, like yesterday, Johnson’s ability to orchestrate is downright impressive.

Normally, you’d question his age or lack of experience, but if we accept that the NFL is a copycat league, Mike McDaniel and Kevin O’Connell are making the case for Johnson to get a shot.

McDaniel, 39, was an offensive coordinator just one year before taking the Dolphins job. O’Connell, 37, had three years as a coordinator but didn’t call plays any of them before the Vikings hired him. Both are a little nerdy, neither possesses the stereotypical gruffness we’ve grown to expect from a football coach, and both are having wild success in their first seasons in their respective roles.

Bright, young minds with a background on offense are dominating the coaching ranks right now, a trend that arguably started with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan in 2017, with McDaniel and O’Connell serving as branches off those trees. Other successful coaches from that mold include Nick Sirianni, Matt LaFleur, Zac Taylor and Brandon Staley.

There’s enough to think Johnson at least gets an interview or two.

Fourth down

Detroit’s defense still ranks last in the NFL in both yards and points allowed, but it’s worth highlighting the role the unit has played in the team’s recent string of success.

During this five-game stretch, the Lions are allowing fewer than 20 points per game (19.8). Additionally, they’re producing all-important turnovers at a high rate, netting nine takeaways, compared to six in the first seven games. That’s compensating for some lingering inconsistencies on third down (46%) and in the red zone (75% in the past four games).

Most importantly, the Lions are seeing steady growth from their young core, including Aidan Hutchinson, Kerby Joseph, Malcolm Rodriguez, Jeff Okudah, Alim McNeill, Derrick Barnes and the recently-emerging James Houston. That’s offering additional promise for the future, as that group continues to grow and will likely get another infusion of talent this upcoming offseason.

Unlike Johnson, who is fast rising in head-coaching conversations, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s candidacy took a hit with the way the Lions started this year. And while he’s still in the process of course correcting, he’s at least removed himself off the hot seat when it comes to his current position.

jdrogers@detroitnews.com

Twitter: @Justin_Rogers