What I’m about to tell you has nothing to do with the Detroit Lions’ chances of making the playoffs this season. It has little to do with wins and losses. It doesn’t even have much to do with them being considered a good team.
So when I tell you the Lions face a must-win game Sunday against the Washington Commanders, it’s not hyperbole and it’s not unreasonable. I have said, all along, that even in Year 2 of the Dan Campbell/Brad Holmes rebuild, the season will be measured by growth and not by the overall record.
But part of that growth is actually learning how to close out games — crossing the finish line and winning games that are winnable. And folks, the second game of the year, at home, with momentum on your side, against a bad team is as winnable as it gets.
The Lions deserved the praise they got for their close loss to a good Philadelphia Eagles team. But even Campbell, who has demonstrated good self-awareness, recognized Sunday night that close losses only cut it for so long.
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“Now, if we just take this whole approach where every week it’s like, ‘We lost by three, we lost by three, we lost by three,’ then, what are we doing?” he said. “So we’ve got to clean this up, and we’ve got to be better. We’ve got to be a lot better in all the areas.”
Campbell was even more encouraged Monday after he reviewed the game film. He said they just ran out of time and lauded the fans who had Ford Field “freaking booming” from start to finish. The Lions are actually favored this week for the first time in nearly two years.
But there’s a flip side to that positivity. The Lions have to capitalize on it. They have to continue the momentum they’ve built, both among players and among fans who will quickly tune out or turn on Campbell if he doesn’t find a way to deliver a win.
I asked Campbell on Wednesday how crucial he felt it was to validate all this positivity with a victory.
“Yeah, listen, it’s very important because I don’t take it lightly,” he said. “I know that — I understand. I understand and it’s hard to pull yourself back into it and want to have hope, and you’re all-in and then, man, if you don’t give it to — if you don’t show it early enough, we’ll lose it quickly.
“I understand that, and so I think it’s vital. I think it’s vital. And getting close doesn’t count. Getting close doesn’t count. We’ve got to close these games out, and that’s how we keep the support. We keep it loud, we keep them coming. I mean that’s ultimately that we have to do.”
The overwhelming positive reaction to the 38-35 loss to the Eagles was exactly on target. The loss was far from perfect, but it indicated promise — some improvement and a step forward.
But if the Lions don’t beat a Washington team that couldn’t sell out the opener at home last week and needed to rally from an eight-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the three-wins-in-2021 Jacksonville Jaguars, then all that positivity is going to curdle. Fast.
NFL coaches are loath to look ahead, pretending they can’t see past their noses instead, but you don’t need perfect eyesight to read the NFL schedule and see what awaits the Lions. If they lose to the Commanders, there’s a good chance they enter their bye week with an 0-5 record. Even their Week 5 opponent, the supposedly rebuilding Seattle Seahawks, appear solid after QB Geno Smith led them past Russell Wilson and the supposedly great Denver Broncos on Monday.
After the bye, the next four games are: at Dallas, home against Miami and Green Bay, then at Chicago. Not an easy win in there — I’m no math genius, but I think that works out to a potential 0-9 record.
Again, this isn’t really about wins and losses. If the Lions are facing a superior team — arguably each of their next seven opponents after Sunday — then losses would make sense.
It’s about delivering a message about improvement that won’t fall on deaf ears in the locker room or empty seats in your stadium. That’s why Campbell was pressed further Wednesday by another reporter about the importance of beating Washington and his concern about potentially losing fans with an 0-2 start.
“Well, I don’t want to get that far into it because, listen, all we can control is our own details, effort, discipline, all those things,” he said. “And so, look, that’s what I told the team.
“I’m not even talking about winning to them, and they know that. I’m talking about playing better, and let’s clean up our details. Because if we do that, winning is a byproduct of that. That’s got to be our sole focus. And so, man, let’s just play better than we played last week.”
I don’t disagree with Campbell’s reasoning. I get where he’s coming from as a myopic coach.
But there is a factor Campbell should consider about his statement: He shouldn’t shy away from talking about wins with his team. The Lions had the NFL’s lowest home attendance last year. Winning translates into attendance and attendance translates into money, and money translates into happy owners, be they the Fords or anyone else.
Campbell has a rare chance to continue the momentum achieved through a loss and an offseason of HBO-fueled hype. If the Lions waste this chance, some coaches and players may not be around long enough to regret it.
Contact Carlos Monarrez: cmonarrez@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@cmonarrez.