Jared Goff is in a better situation than he was a year ago, and there’s some more data to show his potential in his second season as the Lions’ quarterback.
Recently, though he was not the focus of the work, Football Outsiders’ look at the passing trees for all qualifying NFL quarterbacks last year was telling about Lions quarterback Jared Goff. Informative about how offensive coordinator Ben Johnson should design things, even.
Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros, as part of a “Stats You Should Know for All 32 NFL Teams” piece, had these nuggets about the Lions/Goff.
In Weeks 12-18 last season, Detroit was 13th in EPA per play and seventh in EPA and success rate per dropback. In that stretch, Jared Goff was 13th in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE.
Analysis: The Lions’ offense took flight down the stretch as Jared Goff began to show glimpses of above-average play and evoked Rams memories. The 2022 squad is stocked to the brim with talent, skill players, and a top-tier offensive line. While Goff isn’t a sexy fantasy selection, he’s a viable late-round best ball target. He’ll also have streamer appeal this year for redraft leagues.
For the uninitiated, “EPA” stands for “Expected Points Added” and “CPOE” stand for “Completion Percentage Over Expected”. Goff missed two games over that stretch from Week 12-18, but those two pieces of information back up his strong finish (107.1 passer rating, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions over his final five starts last season).
Jared Goff is too easy to totally overlook this season
At this point we know what Goff is–an inherently limited quarterback who has to be elevated by what’s around him. But the Lions have surrounded him with more, in terms of not only on-field talent but an offensive coordinator in Johnson who’s actually making effort to design offense around what he does best and is comfortable with.
Goff’s surge late last year, and the Lions’ offensive improvement as a whole, coincided with Johnson becoming passing game coordinator.
Goff is too easy to just dismiss, write off, etc. this year, in the real or fantasy realms. While he’s not likely the Lions’ long-term quarterback, he could get his career on track this year and stick as a starter somewhere moving forward.