If you blink, you might miss the heart of NFL free agency.
While there are several weeks of buildup between the end of the Super Bowl and the opening of the league’s signing period on March 16, the overwhelming majority of top free agents typically agree to a new contract within days of the market opening.
A handful of those premium talents will lose significant leverage between now and then. Starting Feb. 22 and running through March 8, teams have the option of utilizing the franchise tag. Those one-year contracts, worth the average of the top-five salaries at that player’s position or a 120% salary increase, whichever is greater, take away nearly all the bargaining power away from a player.
The next phase is the legal tampering period, which begins March 14. This two-day window allows teams to talk to agents ahead of the official opening of free agency to discuss basic contract parameters. This accelerates formal agreements being reached when the market opens.
But ahead of it all, we’ve taken the time to rank the top 50 players set to be free agents, highlighting their credentials and predicting what kind of contract they might expect.
1. Davante Adams, WR (29 years old to start 2022 season)
A five-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, Adams has had at least 111 catches, 1,374 yards and 11 touchdowns in three of the past four seasons, averaging 7.6 receptions and 93.2 yards per game during the stretch. Renowned for his releases at the line of scrimmage, he’s a top-five receiver in the NFL.
Contract prediction: Five years, $120 million, $70 million guaranteed
2. Marcus Williams, S (25)
Talented, durable and consistent, Williams never has missed more than two games in a season and has graded among the top seven at his position each of the past three seasons by Pro Football Focus. A playmaker with outstanding range, he’s recorded multiple interceptions each of his five seasons.
Contract prediction: Four years, $66 million, $35 million guaranteed
3. J.C. Jackson, CB (26)
An undrafted find for the Patriots in 2018, Jackson served as a complement to Stephon Gilmore his first three seasons before proving capable of being a No. 1 cornerback in 2021. One of the league’s better man-to-man coverage options, Jackson held opposing quarterbacks under 50% when targeted last season, while racking up 17 interceptions the past two seasons.
Contract prediction: Five years, $90 million, $42 million guaranteed
4. Terron Armstead, OT (31)
One of the most athletic offensive tackles in the NFL, the three-time Pro Bowler missed extensive time with elbow and knee injuries last season and is reportedly set for knee surgery this offseason. When healthy, he’s a franchise-caliber left tackle who is elite in pass protection and well above-average as a run blocker. Even with his age and durability concerns, he figures to have a healthy market.
Contract prediction: Four years, $90 million, $50 million guaranteed
5. Chris Godwin, WR (26)
Splitting time between the outside and the slot, Godwin has averaged 81.9 receiving yards per game across the past three seasons while scoring 21 touchdowns. His average depth of target has been in decline the past four years, but that’s likely a schematic shift and not indicative of declining talent. The primary concern is the torn ACL he suffered in December. Certainty not a deal-breaker, but something that could put a damper on his ability to maximize his value.
Contract prediction: Four years, $75 million, $35 million guaranteed
6. Von Miller, edge (33)
Miller should be exiting his prime, but you wouldn’t know it with the way he performed last season, racking up 9.5 sacks and 82 total quarterback pressures between Denver and Los Angeles. Pretty good after missing the 2020 season with a severe ankle injury. He’s been a premier pass-rusher since entering the league in 2011 and clearly has some juice left in the tank.
Contract prediction: Two years, $24million, $18 million guaranteed
7. Jessie Bates, S (25)
Bates set a high bar with an outstanding 2020 season, but regressed a bit during the regular season last year, both in coverage and run support. But he turned things around when it matter most, delivering an outstanding string of performances in the postseason. He clearly deserves a long-term extension, but the Bengals are in good position to slap the franchise tag on him to prevent him from truly testing the market.
Contract prediction: Five years, $65 million, $34 million guaranteed or one year, $13 million franchise tag.
8. Orlando Brown Jr., OT (26)
Brown has been named to three Pro Bowls in four seasons, earning the nod twice with the Ravens and again last year after being acquired by the Chiefs in a trade. Good as both a pass protector and run blocker, he’s allowed four or fewer sacks each of his four seasons. Like Bates, there’s a good chance Brown gets the franchise tag without agreeing to a long-term extension with the Chiefs.
Contract prediction: Five years, $105 million, $60 million guaranteed or one year, $16.5 million.
9. Chandler Jones, edge (32)
Jones, like Miller, is on the wrong side of 30, but still producing near peak level. After missing 11 games with a torn bicep in 2020, he rebounded to record his seventh double-digit sack campaign last season. The run defense wasn’t as good as it has been in the past, but his career track record shows he’s a proven commodity in that area, as well.
Contract prediction: 3 years, $45 million, $30 million guaranteed
10. Mike Williams, WR (27)
A former top-10 pick, Williams is coming off his most productive season, catching 76 passes for 1,146 yards and nine touchdowns. At 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, he brings elite size to a corps and has shown the ability to be both a deep threat and a reliable option in the red zone, scoring 26 times the past four years.
Contract prediction: Four years, $72 million, $40 million guaranteed
11. Tyrann Mathieu, S (30)
Mathieu is as versatile as he is talented, lining up all over the back end of the defense for the Chiefs, whether in the slot, the box or as the deep safety. He’s also durable, despite his 5-foot-9, 190-pound frame, averaging more than 1,000 defensive snaps across the past five seasons.
Contract prediction: Three years, $46.5 million, $27 million guaranteed
12. Allen Robinson, WR (29)
The Detroit native has put together a nice career with three 1,000-yard seasons to his name, but he’s coming off one of his most disappointing campaigns that had outsiders questioning his effort after failing to secure a long-term deal with the Bears. The previous three years he averaged 70 yards per game and scored 17 times in 45 contests.
Contract prediction: Three years, $48 million, $21 million guaranteed
13. Carlton Davis, CB (25)
A four-year starter for Tampa Bay since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft, Davis is young, has a prototypical frame for the position (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) and three consecutive years of quality production on the résumé. There’s some durability concerns with calf, groin and quad injuries contributing to 14 missed games his first four seasons.
Contract prediction: Five years, $85 million, $55 million guaranteed
14. Jadeveon Clowney, edge (29)
All the talent, some of the production. Clowney always has been one of the more physically gifted edge rushers in the league, but it never translated to elite production.
Lingering on the open market for a month last year, he rebounded from his sack-less season in Tennessee to nearly match his career high with the Browns. Along with dropping opposing quarterbacks nine times, he racked up 53 pressures playing opposite Myles Garrett, and Clowney always has been a plus run defender.
Contract prediction: Three years, $40 million, $24 million guaranteed
15. Stephon Gilmore, CB (31)
The 2019 defensive player of the year, Gilmore went from a good player in Buffalo to one of the league’s premier cornerbacks during a four-year stint in New England. A quad injury suffered at the end of the 2020 season lingered into 2021, and by the time he was ready to return, the Patriots shipped him to the Panthers. In Carolina, he continued to perform at a reasonably high level, intercepting two passes in eight games (three starts). He’s past his peak earning window, but could appeal to a team looking for a short-term solution within a man-heavy coverage scheme.
Contract prediction: Two years, $30 million, $18 million guaranteed
16. Odell Beckham Jr., WR (29)
After a tumultuous stint in Cleveland, Beckham managed to rehab his image quite a bit with the Rams, catching 21 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns in the postseason. One of those scores came in the Super Bowl, but he was forced to exit later in the contest after tearing his ACL. If the money is right, sticking in his new home makes sense for all parties. He might no longer be a No. 1 receiver at this stage in his career, but with Cooper Kupp siphoning attention, Beckham can be an a top-tier No. 2 option.
Contract prediction: Two years, $25 million, $18 million guaranteed
More: NFL Network’s Jeremiah has no issues with Lions taking Irish safety Hamilton
17. Brandon Scherff, G (30)
Consistently one of the top performing interior linemen in the NFL, Scherff has allowed an average of 21 quarterback pressures and 1.6 sacks during his seven years as Washington’s right guard, while constantly grading above-average as a run blocker, according to Pro Football Focus. The main concern is going to be durability. After missing just two games his first three years, he’s missed more than five per season the past four.
Contract prediction: Three years, $48 million, $30 million guaranteed
18. Randy Gregory, edge (29)
Any team that wants to sign Gregory is going to have be comfortable with his history of substance-abuse violations. He’s been suspended more than three seasons’ worth of games, with the last stint coming at the start of the 2020 campaign. He seems to presently be on the right track, being named to the Cowboys’ leadership council last season. He was also productive on the field, matching a career-high with six sacks, part of 43 total pressures, in 12 games.
Contract prediction: Two years, $25 million, $15 million guaranteed
19. Dalton Schultz, TE (26)
After recording just 13 receptions his first two seasons, Schultz broke out in 2020 with 63 catches for 615 yards and four touchdowns. And he only built on that last year, hauling in 78 balls and eight scores. There’s an argument he benefits from the extensive weapons the Cowboys have on offense, but for a team looking for a plug-and-play tight end, not only capable of contributing in the pass game, but also a quality blocker, Schultz is the best this market has to offer.
Contract prediction: Four years, $48 million, $30 million guaranteed
20. Haason Reddick, edge (27)
With the salary cap temporary reduced last year, Reddick bet on himself, taking a one-year deal with Carolina. That bet looks primed to pay off after the former first-rounder recorded double-digit sacks for the second consecutive season. At 235 pounds, Reddick has natural limitations as a run defender, but there’s always a market for that kind of pass-rush production.
Contract prediction: Three years, $40 million, $24 million guaranteed
21. Darious Williams, CB (29)
The former undrafted corner out of UAB is about to cash in after the Rams slapped a first-round tender on him a year ago as a restricted free agent. With opponents wanting little to do with Jalen Ramsey most weeks, Williams more than held his own facing nearly 150 throws his direction the past two seasons. Only 5-foot-9, 187 pounds, he’s undersized, but makes up for that deficiency with technical proficiency and high-end athleticism.
Contract prediction: 4 years, $46 million, $25 million guaranteed
22. Mike Gesicki, TE (26)
An extremely athletic F-type tight end, Gesicki won’t give you much as a blocker, but he’s a highly productive and reliable receiver, dropping only a handful of passes while seeing 286 targets the past three seasons. During that stretch, he caught 177 balls for 2,053 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Contract prediction: Three years, $30 million, $18 million guaranteed
More: Detroit Lions 2022 scouting combine preview: Defensive tackles
23. De’Vondre Campbell, ILB (29)
It feels wrong that a first-team All-Pro linebacker is this low on the list, but Campbell played a lot of mediocre football before his breakout campaign on a low-cost, one-year deal with the Packers. Highly durable throughout his six-year career, maybe it was just a case of his skill set being properly utilized for the first time. Regardless, he’s due to a significant raise, even if it’s difficult to justify committing beyond a couple of seasons.
Contract prediction: Three years, $27 million, $16 million guaranteed
24. Emmanuel Ogbah, edge (28)
Big-framed with high-end athleticism, Ogbah had middling production his first three seasons with the Cleveland Browns, and didn’t do much better with Kansas City after being traded there ahead of the 2019 season. But in Miami the past two seasons, he’s unlocked his potential as a pass rusher, registering nine sacks each year to go with 127 total pressures. At 275 pounds with long limbs, he’s a solid run defender with the versatility to move inside in obvious passing situations.
Contract prediction: Three years, $36 million, $21 million guaranteed
25. Harold Landry, edge (26)
Landry is hitting the market at the right time, fresh off his first double-digit sack campaign, part of 64 total quarterback pressures. A better fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker than defensive end, he’s shown an ability to drop into coverage, doing it more than 100 times for the Titans each of the past two seasons.
Contract prediction: Four years, $58 million, $28 million guaranteed
26. Akiem Hicks, DT (32)
Hicks has missed extensive playing time two of the past three seasons, including eight games in 2021 due to groin and ankle issues. When healthy, he remains a productive, penetrating interior lineman. Playing 15 games during the 2020 campaign, he racked up 51 quarterback pressures, which ranked among the top 10 at the position.
Contract prediction: Two years, $14 million, $8 million guaranteed
More: Detroit Lions 2022 scouting combine preview: Offensive linemen
27. Melvin Ingram, edge (33)
A three-time Pro Bowler, Ingram has recorded just 2.0 sacks in 22 games the past two seasons, but that’s not fully indicative of his impact. Pro Football Focus credits him with generating nearly five quarterback pressures per game during that stretch. Maybe he’s not playing at the level that earned him three consecutive Pro Bowl selections (2017-19), but Ingram is still a productive player in the late stages of his career.
Contract prediction: One year, $6 million, $4.5 million guaranteed
28. Michael Gallup, WR (26)
Another receiver hitting the market while recovering from a torn ACL, Gallup has been a steady contributor during his four seasons with the Cowboys. As a starter the past three years, he’s averaged a little more than four receptions per game and 61.4 yards. Gallup wins by creating late separation, but also shows a high level of comfort when he needs to win in contested situations.
Contract prediction: Three years, $32 million, $20 million guaranteed
29. Ryan Jensen, C (31)
The captain of the offense line, centers still don’t see contracts in the same stratosphere as the top tackles or guards, but Corey Linsley temporarily reset the market a year ago, netting $12.5 million per season from the Chargers as a free agent. Probably a half-tier below Linsley, the 6-foot-4, 320-pound Jensen is durable (81 consecutive starts) and scheme versatile.
Contract prediction: 4 years, $48 million, $24 million guaranteed
30. Jameis Winston, QB (28)
There isn’t a wealth of starting-caliber quarterbacks hitting the market and Winston is the most accomplished option. The longtime Buccaneers signal-caller has 77 career starts, including going 5-2 for the Saints last year prior to tearing his ACL. At the time, he had the best passer rating of his career (102.1). He’s still something of an enigma, leading the NFL in passing yards and interceptions in 2019, but he serve as a high-end backup for a contender or a bridge for a franchise on the hunt for a long-term answer in the not-so-distant future.
Contract prediction: One year, $6 million, $4 million guaranteed
31. Casey Hayward, CB (32)
Hayward has put together a truly excellent career. Five years removed from his last Pro Bowl selection, he’s continued to be effective at every stop. It’s been six seasons since he’s allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete more than 60% of their throws when targeting him in coverage. Probably not as scheme-versatile as he used to be, Hayward would be a better fit for a team with an emphasis on playing zone coverage.
Contract prediction: Two years, $9 million, $5 million guaranteed
32. Laken Tomlinson, G (30)
The former Lions’ first-rounder got out of a toxic situation in Detroit and became the player many thought he could be in San Francisco. In the 49ers’ zone-heavy run-blocking scheme, he’s been outstanding the past two seasons, while also continuing to be above-average in pass protection.
Contract prediction: Three years, $31 million, $18 million guaranteed
33. D.J. Chark, WR (25)
Two years ago, Chark was an ascending talent fresh off his first 1,000-yard season and Pro Bowl selection. But the production dipped the following year and he missed most of the 2021 campaign after fracturing his ankle. Even before the injury, he was struggling to get on the same page with rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, catching just seven of the 22 balls his direction. All that could result in a team scoring an exceptional value. The 6-foot-3 Chark is an elite athlete who could thrive in a better environment.
Contract prediction: Four years, $48 million, $28 million guaranteed.
More: Detroit Lions 2022 scouting combine preview: Safeties
34. D.J. Reed, CB (25)
After seeing just 125 defensive snaps in 16 games for the 49ers in 2019, Reed was jettisoned to waivers where he was claimed by the Seahawks. In Seattle, the undersized corner emerged as one of the more consistent zone-coverage options in the NFC. He allowed just 35 completions the 68 times he was targeted in coverage, intercepting two balls and breaking up 10. Despite measuring in at 5-foot-9 and 193 pounds, he’s also excellent in run support. Being scheme specific, playing far better when lined up to a specific side (right), plus some injury issues, could suppress the size of his offers.
Contract prediction: Three years, $27 million, $14 million guaranteed
35. Leonard Fournette, RB (27)
Drafted No. 4 overall in 2017, Fournette had a pair of 1,000-yard campaigns his first three seasons in Jacksonville. Still, he wasn’t particularly efficient, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry during that stretch. The Jaguars clearly didn’t like the value, waiving him ahead of the 2020 season, which led to the back landing in Tampa Bay. After being on the wrong side of a time share that year, Fournette had his best season in 2021, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, reemerging as a real weapon in the pass game and scoring 10 total touchdowns.
Contract prediction: Two years, $11 million, $6 million guaranteed
36. Marcus Maye, S (29)
Maye had a less-than-ideal year in 2021, being charged with a DUI in February, getting franchised by the Jets a month later — preventing him from securing a big-money, long-term deal as one of the league’s better safeties — then tearing his Achilles in November. That’s a devastating blow to his future earning potential and he probably will be best taking a one-year, prove-it deal to reestablish his value with an aim on cashing in in 2023.
Contract prediction: One year, $8 million, $6 million guaranteed
37. Quandre Diggs, S (29)
After being traded to Seattle from Detroit in the middle of the 2019 season, Diggs thrived in the Seahawks’ Cover-3 scheme. In 38 games, he racked up 13 interceptions, earning a Pro Bowl nod each of the past two years. Playing in every game four of the past five seasons, he suffered a broken leg and dislocated ankle in the season finale. He had successful surgery in January and is expected to be ready ahead of training camp.
Contract prediction: Three years, $36 million, $20 million guaranteed
More: Detroit Lions 2022 scouting combine preview: Quarterbacks
38. Calais Campbell, DT (36)
Campbell has continued to be a dominant interior force into his mid-30s, but there’s definite signs he’s starting to slow down. The pass-rush pressures are still good, but on the decline, plus his tackling has been below-average the past five seasons. That said, he can obviously still go, playing more than 600 defensive snaps last year. He could bring value to any contender needing experienced production in the middle.
Contract prediction: One year, $10 million
39. Eric Fisher, OT (31)
After some early struggles, the Central Michigan product developed into a quality blindside blocker during his eight seasons in Kansas City. But his time with the franchise came to an end two months after he tore his Achilles in the AFC Championship game. He signed with the Colts this offseason and rehabbed well enough to return to action in Week 2. Understandably, his performance took a small step back. He allowed seven sacks, his most since 2014, but he’s still an above-average option in a league always hungry for competency along the offensive line.
Contract prediction: Three years, $42 million, $24 million guaranteed
40. Cordarrelle Patterson, RB (31)
After multiple teams toyed with using Patterson as a running back in the past, the Falcons committed to it and he thrived with the opportunity. He rushed for 618 yards and six touchdowns, while adding another 548 yards and five scores on 52 catches, more than doubling his offensive output from any of the past seven seasons. That led to reduced usage on kickoffs, but he remains one of the most dangerous returners in NFL history when used in that capacity.
Contract prediction: Two years, $10 million, $6 million guaranteed
41. Connor Williams, G (25)
A member of Dallas’ long-dominant offensive front, Williams is a good zone-blocking guard who has made steady progress as a pass protector, more than halving the quarterback pressure he allowed from the previous season in 2021.
Contract prediction: Four years, $36 million, $20 million guaranteed
42. James Conner, RB (27)
In his first year with the Cardinals, Conner made the Pro Bowl, gaining 1,127 yards from scrimmage and scoring 18 total touchdowns. He’s more of a churner than a burner, rarely providing a long gain, but he consistently converts in short-yardage situations, catches almost everything thrown his direction (37 catches on 39 targets) and is excellent in pass protection. With that well-rounded skill set, he’s good to be on the field in any situation.
Contract prediction: Two years, $12 million, $8 million guaranteed
43. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (25)
In his first four seasons, Smith-Schuster averaged more than five catches and nearly 65 yards per game as a big slot receiver, all while scoring 26 touchdowns in 58 contests. It was reported he had better offers as a free agent last offseason, but he opted to stay in Pittsburgh on a one-year, $8 million deal. A shoulder injury ended up costing him the final 11 games of the regular season, but he returned for the playoffs, catching five passes for 22 yards in a loss to Kansas City.
Contract prediction: Three years, $26.5 million, $14 million guaranteed
44. Brian Allen, C (26)
A fourth-round pick out of Michigan State in 2018, Allen became a starter heading into his second season, but a knee injury ended his year prematurely and essentially sidelined him all of 2020, as well. He returned and started 16 games for the Super Bowl champions last season, shining as a highly effective run blocker in the Rams’ zone-heavy scheme. The 303-pounder isn’t as effective in pass protection, allowing five sacks and 20 total pressures in 2021.
Contract prediction: Three years, $24 million, $14 million guaranteed
45. Foyesade Oluokun, ILB (27)
Oluokun paced the NFL with 192 tackles last season, which ranks in the top-10 all-time for single-season output. Highly durable, the former sixth-round pick has missed just one game in his four-year career. He’s only OK when asked to blitz and he gives up far too many receptions when targeted in coverage — which was a lot in 2021 — but he has come up with five interceptions the past two seasons, including a read-and-react, game-sealer against Detroit in 2021.
Contract prediction: Three years, $28.5 million, $18 million guaranteed
46. Jordan Whitehead, S (25)
An ascending talent, Whitehead has improved as an all-around performer each of the past two years, but made particular strides in coverage in 2021. He’s better in the box or coming forward than patrolling the deepest parts of the field, and can be a tone-setter with his eagerness to deliver a big hit at full speed in the middle of the field.
Contract prediction: Three years, $26 million, $13 million guaranteed
More: Detroit Lions 2022 scouting combine preview: Wide receivers
47. David Njoku, TE (26)
To date, he’s fallen well short of living up to the expectations that come with being selected in the first round, but the hyper athletic tight end has been reasonably effective with his opportunities, suggesting there’s plenty of potential still to be tapped. Don’t be surprised if he has an Eric Ebron-type breakout wherever he ends up, but with better underlying metrics, Njoku’s future success could be more sustainable.
Contract prediction: Two years, $18 million, $12 million guaranteed
48. Duane Brown, OT (37)
Brown is obviously nearing the end of his career, but the 14-year veteran still offers teams an above-average stopgap for the all-important blindside role.
Contract prediction: Two years, $20 million, $14 million guaranteed
49. A.J. Johnson, ILB (30)
Passed over in the draft after being charged with sexual assault, Johnson signed with the Broncos shortly after being acquitted. He moved into the starting lineup his second season and has been one of the league’s most underrated off-the-ball linebackers, particularly against the run. The 6-foot-2, 255-pounder ended up missing most of last season after suffering a torn pec.
Contract prediction: Three years, $15 million, $8 million guaranteed
50. James Daniels, G (24)
A former second-round pick out of Iowa, Daniels isn’t much of a mauler at 295 pounds, but he’s effective both in pass protection and blocking zone runs. He’s started every game he’s played three of his four seasons, missing 11 contests in 2020 with a torn pectoral muscle.
Contract prediction: Four years, $30 million, $20 million guaranteed
► Honorable mentions: Edge Derek Barnett, QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Antonio Brown, OG Austin Corbett, RB Melvin Gordon III, edge Charles Harris, Edge Justin Houston, LB Josey Jewell, C Ben Jones, WR Christian Kirk, OT Morgan Moses, CB Steven Nelson, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Charvarius Ward
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers