I’m not a gambler. I’ve only played fantasy football a few times. Yes, I won a little bit of money, but it was a hassle and I didn’t enjoy it.
Sorry, but months of agonizing over roster moves wasn’t worth a few hundred bucks. (Clearly, I’m overpaid, but don’t tell my boss. Shhh!)
I say this so you understand that I rarely pay any attention to any kind of gambling, especially sports betting. But on the eve of NFL training camp, I wanted to step outside of the Detroit bubble and find out if the rest of the world — especially professional bettors who put their money where mouths are — shared my dire outlook for the Detroit Lions this season.
Short answer: Yes.
Long answer. Yes, kinda.
[ For these Lions, wins in development are bigger than wins on the field in 2021 ]
Gambling sites clearly don’t expect much from the Lions as a whole. R.J. White, the top NFL betting expert at CBS’s SportsLine, thinks the Lions will win five games — tied for the fewest with the Houston Texans.
Want to make a boatload of cash? Go to DraftKings.com and bet on the Lions to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They’re 20,000-1 underdogs, which means if you bet $500 you’ll make $100,500. That buys a lot of Honolulu blue Kool-Aid.
Yes, there’s hope some Lions will produce reasonably well. Sportsbetting.ag sets the over/under line for Jared Goff’s touchdowns at 22, DeAndre Swift’s combined TDs at 10.5 and T.J. Hockenson’s receiving TDs at 5.0. But no player is expected to be close to the statistical leaders at his position.
Why am I telling you this? I’m not trying ruin anyone’s enthusiasm before the first camp whistle is blown. I think most reasonable Lions fans understand this will be a tough, rebuilding year. In fact, I’m looking for some hope. After all, the NFL’s built on it. Hope is bedrock of everyone’s fanaticism.
So I’m trying to figure out which Lions players, beyond any statistical superlatives, need to step up if the Lions have any hope of outkicking their coverage and winning more than a handful of games in the 2021 NFL season.
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I ignored rookies because it’s usually unfair to expect major contributions from them. Instead, I chose players who have a reasonable chance to have an excellent season based on their experience.
Michael Brockers
It doesn’t get any simpler, or more important, than this. Opposing offenses ran over, around and through the Lions last year dragging the defense around by its hair on numerous occasions en route to allowing a league- and franchise-worst 519 points.
General manager Brad Holmes’ decision to trade a 2023 seventh-round pick to his old employer for Brockers was clearly an attempt to stanch the flow of putridness that was the Lions’ defensive line last year (with the exception of Romeo Okwara).
Brockers, 30, isn’t in his prime. But he’s the best option the Lions have on the defensive line to stop the run. He’s had at least 50 tackles and has played over 60% of defensive snaps each of the past four years, which speaks to his production and durability. He should also be plenty motivated after the Rams shipped him out after he declined to take a pay cut.
There’s something else, too. The Lions are light on nose tackle talent, so Brockers might help offset that deficiency if he’s able to mentor young tackles like John Penisini and Alim McNeill and help them run better stunts.
Jared Goff
To paraphrase what Yogi Berra said about the bullpen, I offer this NFL version: “If you ain’t got a quarterback, you ain’t got nothing.” I won’t go into too much detail about the Lions’ new QB, other than to say he just can’t play poorly too often this season for the Lions to have a chance.
I hope Goff believes he doesn’t have to save the world all by himself. He doesn’t have to prove anything to Sean McVay and throw 40 touchdowns. Frankly, he’s not going to have much help in the receiver corps. That means Goff just needs to be efficient and have a good TD-to-interception ratio. If he makes enough good decisions with the weapons he has, he should be able to move the offense and score enough points to keep the Lions in games.
D’Andre Swift
I get the feeling the offense is going to run through the second-year running back. He showed a lot of promise as a rookie and with limited options in the receiving game, I think most defenses will have focus on stopping Swift or Hockenson, the Pro Bowl tight end.
My guess is most teams would rather stop Hockenson, since he can stretch the field. That means Swift should get tons of chances running and catching. In 13 games last year, he had 878 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. Running behind a surefire Hall of Fame offensive line (kidding, sort of), Swift should easily top 1,000 combined yards and approach 15 TDs.
T.J. Hockenson
Coming off his 723-yard, six-touchdown Pro Bowl season, he looked great this spring — bigger and faster — and was clearly Goff’s favorite target during the minicamp practices I watched.
The only problem with Goff is what I previously mentioned. He’s clearly the Lions’ top offensive threat, which means opposing defenses are going to scheme to stop him. If Swift or another offensive player don’t step up to take the pressure off Hockenson, I could easily see him having a poor statistical year.
Tyrell Williams
Sticking with the offense, he’s the Lions’ No. 1 receiver right now and that’s a scary thought. He’s 29 and missed all of last season with a shoulder injury. The two seasons before that, he looked like a good No. 2 receiver, totaling 1,304 yards and 11 touchdowns.
But now he’s the top man at a position the Lions all but ignored this offseason. Williams will have to approach something close his 2016 form, when he had 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns with the Chargers, if he’s going to offer Goff and the offense any consistent downfield options.
Jeff Okudah
New year, new coach, new groin for the Lions’ cornerback and last year’s No. 3 overall pick. He only played nine games last year, which means he missed plenty of developmental time, so he got cheated out of a true rookie year, which was also made more chaotic with COVID-19.
Okudah’s main asset is his mind and attitude. He’s going to have to make up for lost time however he can and get off to a fast start in order to stabilize the highly suspect secondary. The defense remains a big work in progress, so if Okudah can step up and help give the offense more chances, there may be a little more hope than anyone has any reason to expect from the Lions this year.
I just wouldn’t bet on it.
Contact Carlos Monarrez at cmonarrez@freepress.com and follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.